Member Info for Tokugawa

I would'nt worry so much about issue of takeover at this point. With EPL in place US majors will not touch us and with current Brent oil futures we will be able to buyback around 9-10% of our own shares. Would be very,very suprised if that is not already pre-arrantesbwith BASF/EIG.

So though,JD Vance left,technical experts will continue to try to formalize points of friction for next 10 days.

What to expect:

- US creating corridor through Hormuz that ships will use in convoys- extremely slow and inefficient way;

- Iranian tolls stay, probably renamed as safety or some kind of fee...

Oil stay elevated ( not over 100 usd but not much down either) for long time, shipping freights skyrocket as corridor basically takes out number of available ships from market.

Inflation creep up especially in europe and uk.We will have stagflation!

Most likely some kind of tolls will be introduced.What does it mean?

- inflation sets in for long period

- oil price will stay elevated

-eu uk pay for it

Good for HBR but bad for common folks....

Thank you Sekforde!!

With oil price of 70 usd in 2027 I can agree But I have a problem with gas price. 17 % of Qatar gas is offline and will be for next 3 years. So europe will need to replace it with US gas mostly, but, will be bidding with Asia as well...

Sekforde

Can you help a bit pls.

Hedging will expire at the end of 2026 and if we have 80 usd average oil price in 2027 and gas price is let's say 15 usd, how much will be FCF in 2027 if no hedging is done??

Am I wrong or around 2 bil.???

@Stevo

Sorry to interrupt your discussion with Sekforde but if I am not wrong, CFO statement that oil rise of 5 usd = +170 mil in FCF and gas rise of 1 usd=+150 mil usd in FCG is POSt hedging

Pls. correct me if I am wrong!

As in one of my previous posts, I said I would be happy that oil stays around 85-90 usd. Why? Well, I consider myself as Value investor and all this sudden spikes/drops make my calculations/life of real value much harder.

BUT don't get me wrong, iran -us war has significantly helped HBR and that will be seen by the end of this year.

My base calculation tells me that in this year FCF will be minimum 1,7 bil, in 2027 1,5 bil, assuming 45% and 55% percent return to shareholders and rest for debt repayment.

In 2028 we will enter with quite healthy balance sheet with debt around 5,4 bil or lower, lower number of shares and steady dividend yield.

IF management proceed with US listing? and EPL is transformed as per last talks between government and o&g executives, we would he valued on a us market at equivalent to 480-550 p.

And that is excellent CAGR of more than 20%!!

I leave rest of you to re-check my numbers and likelihood of all those things happening but I am quite sure there will be a lot of value in this company for all of us.

Have a great day all

Actually, I think it is quite possible that aggreement will hold and be signed into peace aggreement.

I guess points 3&4 might need to be worked on, especially lifting sanctions will need Congress approval and until then Iran will introduce tolls on Hormuz...

No mate, tankers very rarely sail with maximum speed, in this environment for sure not. Fuel costs would kill them!

But you touched subject that might be interesting - shipping.

For Sekforde and few other value investors, have a look at NMM, there might be some value there....

Oman and Iran drafting protocol on monitoring Hormuz Strait traffic

ValueS

I hope you dont invest just by looking into YT Videos.

At the end I just wrote that we might see massive losses on HBR share price IF talks between Iran and US proved true.

And worryingly you wrote that this is another TACO - so ok, who cares, war might be finished and what HBR has shown us lately? Shown us that major holders just want to offload huge numbers of shares, Company has lowered our dividend ( but not their salaries) but not even a word about plan what to do with huge number of shares that might flush market.

But to calm you a bit, I haven't heard that US Marines are going back so just this might be another " great" strategy of Trump to "suprise" enemy.

Who knows, but oil is telling different story now.

What forward oil curve says?

ValueS your post contain few midtakes:

1. Iran's only serious revenue comes from oil, little bit from selling arms to Russia butbthatbis almost nothing.

GCC countries as well but theirbanother ancome streams are: tourism, financial services etc.

2. US can and will stop their oil selling by attacking Kharq Island if situation worsens;

3. US has lifted sanctions on Iranian oil ONLY that is already on sea ie tankers. Those oil has been already sold, mostly to China, but, it was not allowed to be discharged due to fear that US would sanction those entities that take oil.

So, Iranian oil export, same as Russian is still under sanctions.

But ValueS, you understand that goes both ways, right?

Iran lives from selling oil as well and if US was allowing Iran oil to be exported while western market oil would be stopped, that would change either through opening Hormuz by force or more likely by cutting Iran export on source ie Kharq Island.

It's very dangerous at this moment to suggest to anybody to invest or not into oil stocks as situation can go either direction.

Why Iran would not open Hormuz Strait if talks really were good? It's not that it would run away and they would loose their strong card. They can close it again.

As I wrote yesterday, in regards to HBR, with current major owners, this stock will underperform in positive environment as well as negative environment.

If we have another reversal we might go to 320-350 but in case situation in Middle East calm down, anybody who bought above 250-260 will, at least in short time, loose money.

It is important to watch forward oil and gas curves as that is the place we will see major changes first.

Good luck to all long time holders ( being one of them)....

As a small shareholders we are in, at leat to say, unpleasant situation. Until BASF reduces ita stake by at least 50-60%, share price will not move much even if oil reaches 200 usd. And then what? Looking into oil chart history, after sudden moves in oil we have opposite move that lasts for 2 years aporox.

So we might end up holding undervalued shares in positive environment for couple of years only to change to holding shares with bad future earnings prospects.

Company decision to limit shareholders return to 45% with 300mil going for dividends is not helping either as it also limits buybacks.

We would be happy if we cross 350 price tag in this year at all.

What do you think?

In my view one of the problems with HBR share price is that it is too low. So traders can go in for few thousand pounds and sell it once reach some gain 10%, 15% etc.

This ,anyway, is a minor problem as it will correct itself as they will have higher and higher entry price for next trades.

Second, Company itself is quite static as they are caught in suprise how prices exploded. If they give just small update on where we stand now, in relation what was planned, price would soar.

Third, many people still have scenario in head announced by IEA on oil prices, supply glut etc. Irony is that just today, IEA send recommendation on how to save energy due to incoming crises, work from home, shorter distance travel etc. You can google it....

Interesing

https://youtu.be/VzlLCnJr8CI?is=8tNXkXz3np0A3_1V

" Market so volatile it is hard yo trade" - that is exactly why investors don't want oil prices to shut up as we plan to hold HBR next 5 years minimum as that is where real value is while traders wait for another sudden leg in oil up to sell.

Any jump in oil over 130-150 usd destroys demand and even if oil shoots up, real value in HBR will not be unlocked as people know that recession is looming.

Even if POO goes to normal? 80 usd level together with production rise, another benefits from LLOG/ Waldorf, FCF will easily be over 1 bil.

Of course, there is a sweet spot that dropping prices will be beneficial for EPL transformation beggining of 2027

Interesting post. So, that means price deescalation would lead to 80 in October. So how much will be average oil price in first 6 months? 90,95?? And then last 6 months maybe 85?

Company planned FCF is 650 mil on 65$ oil. So this year could bring 2-3x larger FCF as planned.