Member Info for Tokugawa

This year FCF around 2 bill., next around 1.5 bill. so in this and next year over 3 bill.We were dreaming to make that money in 4-5 years just few months ago.

Charlie Munger and W. Buffet of value investing, you dont need to be EXACT in your analysis just close enough!

Actually,after this year and next, no actually not.

Forgot to add, few months back we were talking that would be good if HBR make 600-800 bill of FCF in this year and next...

Now we are looking into 3x that amount in 18 months...HEY 3X!

It will catapult us and with so much money amateur could complete what I wrote before and Linda IS NOT an amateur.Amazing CEO!

Neversellshell, reality is that HBR is completely different Company now then was a year,2,3+ back.

Company that will have a FCF of over 3 billions in this and next year, cut debt,reduce shares,hike return to shareholders.

Management just need to make it simple as road is so obvious:

cut debt ae much as possible its a priority, increase production, buyback shares,

make return to shareholders visible,

list on USA market; stash cash,

wait if EPL is out,

explore merger/buy Talos, Slim is not holding for nothing stakes in both,

create one of the best middle stream o&g company with amazing assets!

With this and next year, path is actually very clear and simple.

Punch in the numbers, post 2030 HBR could easily be 20-30 usd per share.

Greetings all

Just quick question, after all acquisitions what is HBR gas producing price?

I believe 11 usd currently, but how will that develop in next years?

Thank you in advance

This is what I got from AI:

​Share Capital Analysis

​Following the completion of the Wintershall Dea acquisition, Harbour Energy's equity structure consists of two components:

​Ordinary Shares (Voting): 1,579,798,584

​Non-Voting Shares: 251,500,000 (unlisted, held by LetterOne)

​Total Issued Share Capital: ~1,831,298,584 shares

​According to the FTSE UK Index Series Ground Rules, a company's ranking for index promotion or demotion is determined by its full market capitalization. This calculation dictates the use of the total number of shares in issue, explicitly including any unlisted and non-voting shares.

​Market Capitalization and Index Ranking

​Applying the complete share count to today's closing price alters the valuation metric used by FTSE Russell for the June 2026 review:

​Total Shares: ~1.831 billion

​Closing Price: 280.80p

​Full Market Capitalization: ~£5.14 billion

​A full market capitalization of £5.14 billion elevates Harbour Energy's position relative to the wider UK market. At this valuation, the company achieves a ranking of 87th among eligible UK-listed equities.

​Because the company has risen past the 90th position threshold required for automatic promotion during a quarterly review, Harbour Energy will be promoted to the FTSE 100. The official index changes will be formally announced by FTSE Russell on June 3, 2026.

Many, including myself, have bought Harbour when oil was under 60 usd, story about supply glut was daily, rumours about price of under 150p, no dividend etc. But many, including myseld liked Harbour even then.Why? In my case, huge revamp in business by acquiring and selling assets and companies, real "west" world producer outside Gulf, South Asia, acquired amazing assets that push story further ( US listing), etc.

And then came Iran! Oil went up but almost all oil companies lagged, yes almost all not only HBR...But money is pouring to our account with buybacks,debt reduction,dividend...Why I would not like it now if I was ready to go through "supply glut" possible 40-30 usd oil etc..?

If more traders sell great, pie is bigger for usz they will return for sure Forget the noise, focus on aim and just WAIT...

Well, like it or not deal is here and Wall Street will for sure give its best to show that this deal is good for everybody. In order to have any real chance in midterm elections, Trump will kill oil price...

What will be afterwards, who knows, but, quiite likely, we will have further drop, not to mention that our top shareholders just want to go out

Iranian Supreme Leader issued an order that iran uranium stays in country.

Altor Financial is owned byvChairman of BW shipping who bought almost all sold 10% shares from BSSF

Just came across that Military leader in IRGC Reahzei says Iran will not accept US 14 points plan

I think it is matter of time b4 market realise: The King is naked!

ValueS, yes but Shell bought Can assets and HBR US assets

You are using wrong number of shares issued.

Also current debt is 7.2 bil but will be significantly reduced by end of the year, hopefully by min. 1 bil.

I am in line with Sekforde forecast but a bit more positive on a gas prices as there are real physical limitations how much gas volume can be restored from missing Middle East volumes. From my LNG shippers I got a permanent info that soon coming EU/Asia LNG refilling season will be brutal on prices.

I really like a note that some hedging has been done for 2027.

Interesting video on LNG supply:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VNw9Q_rnc6g&t=38s&pp=ygUcZ3JvdW5kaG9nIHN0cmFpdCBlbmVyZ3kgZmx1eA%3D%3D

Dan it is simple mathematic.Don't forget that HBR don't sell oul on paper karket but on a few dollars stronger physical market.

Hormuz can't be reopened today or tomorrow, if you know shipping you would understand that.Minimum 1-2 months after some kind of peace deal as ships would need insurance cover and pretty strong safety clauses. That is why UK and rest of europeans are gathering peace naval fleet.

The question is what they will do with approx. 400 mil leftover from Waldorf...Buyout EIG/BASF?

Following latest developments in US-Iran war, it is certain that Brent oil average will not be under 95 usd and very likely not under 98 usd in 2026. TTF gas 15+ usd.

With clever hedging, we will have positive spillover in 2027. FCF in 2026 around 2 bil. Debt repayment 1 bil.

If we go for secondary US listing, target price 10+ usd.

Some serious value destruction here, forward oil curve will collapse too

Sorry, pre-arranged..