Member Info for Tobin

I have always thought there was a chance that the MTS may be tunnelled significantly quicker than predicted. The blue Mountain Scheme on Australia was not dissimilar with a 13km tunnel bored from one end in sandstone.
http://www.therobbinscompany.com/the-worlds-fastest-tbm/
They broke records with over 700m in 1week.
All tunnels are different but the geology of this area is well known and is very "diggable" .... Boulby made records sink its shafts.
It will be interesting to see.

On Morningstar the fall in the share price now gives a discount of 25%. So why the fall in the share price? Maybe there is a sell off because there is a believe that the estimated NAV from morningstar is wrong? Certainly the markets are generally down and the Nasdaq is down 20% from its peak. There is due a new NAV announcement in the next day or so, so that will be interesting to look out for.
The other possibility is that its a Brexit effect and as a FTSE 250 company its being marked down like many others as investors keep away from the uk domestic market in uncertain times. This I think is likely to be the case even though PIN has most of its investment in Europe and the US.
At this £3 buys you £4 worth of value of underlying shares in a company that has given 15%+ return on NAV in the past 1, 3 and 5 years.
I am going to continue with my view that this is a strong buy for those who dont have a share holding, and I have started to add again, though like Warren Buffett I do have a high cash holding.

I’ve invested for the long term but I can see that I am going to get a lot of pleasure seeing this project actually happen!
I’m sure the funding will come through, the question is at what price.
The potential for share price growth of 5-10 fold over the next 10years looks good. There are a number of other potash projects around.. I quite like salt lake potash.. but sxx has the potential to be easily the lowest cost ... and that lowers risk.
For those who maybe looking at somewhat lower risk to go with sxx, can I suggest pantheon international PIN, NAV out today.

I have moved to a strong buy for anyone who hasn’t a holding in pantheon and are looking if for potential of long term growth. My posts are often on the reserved side but that’s because I already have a large percentage of my disposible wealth in this company and keep thinking I should reduce it. But when I go to look I don’t find the companies so well run or the track record.. go to the website, look at the chart of growth of NAV and you will see what I mean. Hidden gem.

2603p up from 2439p in June in a trick market. So though the NAV is up by 164p... so over 6% ... the share price is lower.
I may start to add to my holding again, I still have cash sitting in this years ISA.

This has probably been posted before but a blog by an expert in evaporites is a fascinating read for those with an interest in how polyhalite minerals were formed, and the article looks at the benefits of polyhalite as a fertiliser.
http://www.saltworkconsultants.com/blog/polyhalite-geological-origin-of-an-alternate-low-chloride-potash-fertiliser

Unfortunately I will not be at the AGM this year as it clashes with my wife’s birthday.... shares are down with the market but may be less than I would have expected. As with my previous post the market felt toppy and there has been something of a correction.
I suspect that this has further to go. I remain heavily in cash though with holdings in PIN. I plan to continue with these unless there is something significant that comes out of the AGM, which I doubt. Hopefully some more buy back??
I was planning to wait for Warren Buffett to start spending his cash hoard but looking across the ftse 250 there are a few companies with defensive type features that have been sold down like Assura, so I maybe tempted to start adding to my position.
But for Pantheon with its exposure to the US market I will wait on WB.

Touching 2100p a share, up 300p on a year ago. Just the market feels toppy but I always call these things early. Amazon and Apple hitting a trillion, but that will attract some folks just like bit coin did! Still a discount that is too big, so room to narrow one way or another. Would still be a strong buy if it wasn’t for my probably inappropriate nerves re the market

No ones replied to the main question. Potash price A$500, costs production, transport, royalties.. pushing A$400 there’s not huge profit margin on the demo. No real surprise. But there has to be significant opportunities to reduce costs.. they mention possibility of transport via rail.. but the biggest would be reducing manufacturing costs from scaling up from the demo. Do we have any guide what this could be? The value of the shares is ultimately the profit/ton and the total tonnage. If there are significant benefits from scaling up the numbers look much better as the profit/share multiples.

As you say Australian dollars. It’s the ratio that matters.. no??

Had a chance to look at the scoping study. They have given some prices for the cost of production $250/t and transport and royalties to a total of $387 with 30% confidence limits around this. So unlikely much profit from the demo. Bigger profits will come with scale.. hopefully! https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/so4/0cd82959-8b7.pdf

Never to keen to see insiders stepping down, especially financial officers. Sounds like he has had a better offer, but I wonder if this was the association with the recent down turn in share price.
https://www.worldfertilizer.com/potash/14082018/salt-lake-potash-appoints-chief-financial-officer/
See how the market reacts. It is August and they can be volatile, but maybe a reason to add to holding.

Price is of 25% over past 3months, any thoughts why or just a good buy opportunity??

Reply to myself. Had a chance to listen to the interview rather than just the notes (I had a problem with downloading videos) The CEO does say the market rate for SOP in Australia is $500/t and expect cost at full production to be less than $200/t. I still doubt they will make much profit on the demo plant but the reason for the demo plant has to de-risk full production. Also interesting that when pushed he felt CAPEX of $1million/1000t was reasonable ball park. The would give 30% annual rate of return on investment. Obviously there will be costs to finance and likely dilution etc but still clear upside.

In reply, I took the numbers from the proactive investor article “At full production rates, Salt Lake Potash expects to be producing SOP at a cost of around US$200 per tonne. Compare that to the selling price of SOP over the past decade, which has fluctuated between the US450 and US$500 range, “ ... so as you state the demo site is on the most distant lake.. and “ At full production rates, Salt Lake Potash expects to be producing SOP at a cost of around US$200 per tonne.” ... so on a new demo plant I suspect costs will be significantly greater than that... so logically I doubt much profit. As I state the profitability of this endeavour IMO will depend heavily on getting costs of production down. Maybe SOP prices will be higher, I took the $400 price of fertilizer grade from a website. But if Sirius does start delivering 10-20million tons per year of Poly4... And I’m not trying to deramp.. you will see I still rated it as a “Buy”. I just try to get it clear in my own mind what the risks and opportunities are. And I still rate it as a Buy, but not a Strong Buy. This may change if the price falls further or if the demo plant lives up to expectations.

NAV at 2439p for June, was 2172p last June.. . 267p for the year, so over 12%. Better than ftse, not as good as S+P, but not bad and where the NAV goes the share price will follow eventually! Remain generally on the pessimistic side re the overall market and carrying more cash. I recognise that I am often a little cautious but Warren Buffett is sitting on $109billion in cash and he is arguably the most successful investor ever know. Interestingly he has opted to buy back more of Berkshires own shares. Pantheon perhaps could also do a little more on this front now issues around the PINR class have been resolved??

Article on Proactiveinvestor posted on the 23/7
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/201337/salt-lake-potash-set-to-enjoy-significant-margin-producing-from-brines-in-australia-201337.html
So looks like they are going to dewater the mine ... 1.2 gigalitres .. 1.2million tons of water.. with 25kg of SOP/ton.. 30,000tons. As feed for the demoplant. They expect at full production the cost/ton of SOP will be $200/ton and sale price $400/ton, so not expecting any profits from the demo plant.
They need to hopefully see the production costs come down, especially if SOP prices fall with Sirius is successful.

Has continued to progress. Largely in line with international, and especially US markets. Entering the summer season. Will this be a year of “sell in May”. Still heavily invested in PIN, I have taken a little off. Good to see the chairman, Sir Laurie Magnus, buying in quite significantly. May take his lead and see what the summer brings. http://www.iii.co.uk/stockmarketwire/507091/director-deals-pantheon-international-plc-pin?context=LSE:PIN

Anybody got any more thoughts on the AGM?? http://www.iii.co.uk/research/LSE:SO4/news/item/2781122/notice-gm?context=LSE:SO4 It’s going into winter in Australia to it’s going to be a few months before they can start on new ponds and demonstration plant. The Share Price has eased a bit. I suspect may get some interest with the agm but otherwise may be rather quite till start of 2019. This may result in SP easing more. If it does I plan to accumulate. Anyone with thoughts?

Pantheon has been very good for me for 8-9years, but my thoughts are that the risk balance may not be quite as good as was. Still at a significant discount and possibility of narrowing discount with buy backs or entry to ftse 350. However it has nearly grown its NAV in the past year and is heavily invested in US market. It has recently lost out to currency changes, but these are linked to cost of money etc which will unlikely be good for shares. Even Warren Buffett is sitting on more and more cash, unable to find anything worth buying in the US market. Maybe time to start lightening? Or at least in my case rebalancing?