Member Info for Tobin

Hi GK
Not all potash needs deep shafts. I see you sold out of salt lake potash? And there’s Emmerson EML with a shallow resource ... looks attractive enough to already have promise of capital funding at 5% .. very different to SXX. SXX still has the possibility to sell everything it mines which if it gets a good price should still give a good return. But I think spreading ones risk looks appropriate. Thoughts?

The biggest selling drugs in the world are biological .. each making billions a year income/profits .. educate your self..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_selling_pharmaceutical_products

I do like a good discount. And pushing 30% is rare. Woodford track record is also rare; and though 99% of “active managers” don’t beat the market, some do. Warren Buffett for one, and we all know his advise.. fearful when all are greedy, greedy when all are fearful..And investment trusts can just hang on in there till times change. I quite like his investments. Clearly risky, but with clear upside.
It’s always tempting to try and pick the bottom but difficult to do. I think this is attractive for an old bottom feeder like me to start to accumulate.

Interesting that you view that polyhalite will compete more with MOP as it is chloride free, and has sulphur. The volume of polyhalite especially if they push to 20million tons may have to compete more with MOP but it’s real value will be if there are enough buyers who want all 4 “ingedients” K,Mg,Ca & sulphur and prepared to pay the price. If SXX can sell 20million tons a year and make $100/ton then it’s value could be $15billion.. and £1.50 a share. But I have my doubts.
EMM looks a more likely “10bagger”, and sooner if get to sell out.

Thanks for that. Had more of a look myself. The investor newsletter says results in July.

Nope. I presume they will need to drill some holes, get some samples and run some tests..
but Hi Makingmillions.. your first post on LSE for 51/2 years? ... what brings you to EML?

Listening to the webcast it is clearly intimated that selling out to OCP at some stage is the game plan.

Last RNS I wasn't going to comment on, NAV flat for the month; but share price pushing all time highs.

As a holder of both SLP and SXX SLP seem to have held there value, SXX haven’t done well at all since the announcements on funding.
I’m watching events and see how both will unfold on both these shares but I am increasing my holding in Emerson plc.
GK.. would appreciate your opinion..

I have read the prospectus a couple of times and I still wouldn’t like to say that I understand them but the look attractive except that it looks like the minimum size is $200,000.
Do you want to expand on your comments in plain English?

Just doing a little more reading up on Highfield, and its Muga Mine Project in Spain. Sounds very similar to the Khemisset Project. Approximately 1million tons of K60 per annum, similar middling quality ore, and low cost because of the relative low depth and lack of aquifier that allows a declline mine access and conveyor system.
A good write up here from a couple of years ago with costings.
https://www.e-mj.com/features/highfield-resources-prepares-to-open-the-muga-mine/

It sounds like the resource is slightly lower, but slightly thicker seams. The metallurgical assessment will be the next big important cross road. If it is for some reason difficult to separate the KCl from the NaCL and clay then there maybe a problem.

Thanks Morning Coffee, can you be spotted in the webcast?
There are clear risks but Morocco has a huge phosphate mine that has been running for decades, so there should be infrastructure. The development is very similar to Highfield Resources development in Spain, that Hayden Locke has also been involved with.
Getting in early on these projects can deliver the biggest gains.

Link hopefully to the webcast https://youtu.be/Ep16Tdc7W1Q?t=131

The webcast looks very professional, Hayden Locke seems to know what he is talking about.
Any thoughts on this project?
As good as it looks??

I have posted on Emmerson plc that is an early stage potash project in Morocco.
Long Term investor in Sirius, and taken up my shares! But this looks an interesting project.
There is a really useful web cast produced by LSE put out a few days ago with Emmerson plc, and there are links flashing up on my LSE page https://youtu.be/Ep16Tdc7W1Q?t=131
Hayden Locke the exec director gives an excellent presentation, with some interesting insights into the potash market. Sirius is mentioned several times.
I would still be interested to hear the thoughts of some of the experts who frequent this site. There are very few comments on the LSE Emmerson chat even after the webcast.
Thoughts??
GK ??

I think the limit isnt just the winding or the capacity of the tunnel conveyor but the need for ventilation.

As I continue as a long term holder of Sirius, I’m still looking around for other investments. I have picked up a few shares in salt lake potash, but Emmerson plc with a low cost potash project in Morocco looks interesting. It’s more like Boulby in planning to mine and then separate KCl.
There’s a few knowledgable sorts on this chat. Any insights??

The contract I understand is done, but building TBMs underground are going to be very difficult. They have cut the numbers from previous but still sounds like 1 TBM to many. I suspect and hope that the drive rate will be significantly faster than predicted (geology of this area is well understood, and very ”diggable”).
They suspect they are going to use large road headers to build the launch chamber for the TBM; my thought is they let them build part of the tunnel if it looks like tunnelling is slow. They are not as quick but wouldn’t need the large launch chamber or set up time for a TBM.
Time will hopefully tell.

Last week runs with the NAV for March worthy of comment with 2.5% growth. Much being recovery of currency exchange losses. This things go up and down. The NAV at 2599p is about 300p up on a year ago, but not much growth in last 6months. Again this is never a straight line over the short term, though fairly straight over the longer term.. in an upwardly direction.

Results to the end of February are out. Valuation is down 0.6% on the month but that’s all due to currency fluctuations. Just reading Warren Buffetts annual letter he makes much of not making much of short term fluctuations. Valuation gains were up.