Member Info for Tobin

Mulling this over some more I suspect that there’s another explanation. They don’t really want to spend the money upgrading the port because ultimately they probably see most of the product going further down the coast to Jorf Lasfar. This is were much of the potash from Morocco is coming out and where OCP are building a “NPK mega-plant”.
EML can’t come out and say that’s where the potash will end up but they could truck it down to Rabat and rail to Jorf Lasfar for $15/t. Delivering potash for the NPK plant far cheaper than from Canada or Russia.
So keeping options open and not spending money unnecessarily....
http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Emmerson_Initiation_Align_Research_4th_September_2018.pdf
‘There is a large domestic market. On the coast, OCP operates a vast NPK blending facility at Jorf Lasfar which is 300km away by rail. This facility represents a big export plant where US$8 billion has been spent on building an NPK mega-plant from which OCP is focused on supplying the African market. Potassium could be trucked to Jorf Lasfar at $30/t, but by rail the costs would be under $15/t. Currently, it is understood that OCP sources its MOP from far-flung locations including Canada, Belarus, and Russia.”

Just reflecting on the RNS . They are looking at moving port to Casablanca. This will save $7.5million of the scoping study costs. But will increase the cost of transport by $1.39/t.
This seems a small cost but moving 800,000 tons of potash starts to add up. IF they also increase to 1.2million tons as Hayden suggest is possible given the increased JORC, and the 2 million tons/annum for salt then they are potentially adding $4.5million to costs, and hence reduced profits, for an investment of $7.5million.
They are obviously keen to keep CAPEX low to help get the project away. Once it is up and running they may want to revisit this especially if there is a market for the salt.
An insight into how they see the importance of keeping CAPEX down.

Good to see a few new visitors to the BB, hopefully not too many having experienced Sirius, you can not find anything of use on their because there are just too many postings. At the moment trailing back through the chat I think you can pick up the timeline and links to the most important aspects of the project.
A document in March from Shard capital gives details of the development https://www.emmersonplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Shard-Capital-EML-21-3-2019.pdf
The most important think to recognise is that the potash ore is at "only" 600m, and very accessible by potash standards as there is no aquifer that typically makes the mine very expensive to build, typically billions $$.
The next is that the product can be shipped easily to Brazil, at much lower cost than potash from other parts of the world. This is a significant cost advantage over other potash mines. Brazil is the 2nd biggest importer of potash in the world.
Since March we have seen the successful raising of £2.5 that should give it enough money to get to the BFS (Bankable feasibility study), offers of Bank loans for the project, and critically the metallurgical results that shows the potash ore can be converted effectively to product. The JORC update on resource.
Useful video with the CEO https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Fi2TTIfRbQ&feature=youtu.be
There will be more news leading upto the BFS. More details on the mine, processing and transport expected. All harding the costs and business case.

SXX remains one of the busiest BBs so while a long term, and long suffering holder I am still going to suggest folks have a look at EML. Continues to have a strong and developing investment case, share price not reflected probably as a consequence of fall out of SXX.

Interesting. Lets hope this is right!

Something to watch short term with Pantheon. It is standing at a marked discount to NAV already and with 70% invested in the USA Pantheon are likely to benefit from the S+P and Nasdaq pushing to new highs in the past month. This may result in a jump in share price come the release of October NAV.
However £ has strengthened vs $. This is likely to remove most of the gain.
But I think it is worth watching the US markets and £/$. There maybe an opportunity for short term gain with PIN. Not that I would tend to recomend this , usually it is "time in the market rather than timing the market".

Made it to the AGM this year (didn’t clash with wife’s birthday). As always proper but friendly. Sir Laurie Magnus ably leading proceedings, and a few short presentations. Obviously for regulatory reasons the stats etc are in the annual report.
They are clearly doing everything by the book as a FTSE350 company, external appraisals annual board re-elections and even Roddy Swires stepping down from the board as you shouldn’t be on the board for more than 9years apparently unless exceptional circumstances. I consider that this is probably guidance PIP should be ignoring, continuity and experience is so important for when the next crisis occurs. Fortunately he will still be around as a major shareholder but when those difficult decisions have to be made he will not have the same influence as being on the board.
I raised a question re the discount. It clearly irritates SLM that essentially the market is not more rational. He commented that with PIPs long term over performance it should logically be at a premium. I agree with his sentiment. I still consider the discount an opportunity for buy backs but I don’t feel too concerned at present as it gives me an opportunity to buy more shares a hopefully see them over perform as it narrows.
What really matters is the continuing over performance by the company by its rigorous fund selection from the teams long term knowledge and relationships with managers.
There is clearly risk re the high valuation of US market and they are very aware of this and on ever investment decisions considering what could be the downside.
I came away more reassured, will continue a long term investor but will continue with a significant cash holding for the inevitable correction.

Great RNS ... I wasn’t expecting too much SP move from the JORC as it was clear that they already had enough resource for what they needed. I suppose I shouldn’t be too surprised then, but the Hayden Locke interview gives new significance to the JORC ... potential for bigger output and \/or longer life.
Also options to produce SOP.
What comes across isn’t spin but confidence that their onto a winner. Best investment case I have seen for a few years.

September NAV was down a bit on currency exchange but US markets are hitting all time highs so prospects looking good for October.
Hopefully should make it to the agm next week.

At the start of September I posted that I thought EML has bottomed its long decline but a share hasn’t stopped going down until it starts going up... and that’s what it looks like today.
It’s also finished above the placement price.
Why the rise? A leak before news?
I suspect not, it was just it’s time. But it will be interesting to see how it now responds to news.. if could be significantly to the upside (the coiled spring), we will see.

I have to say I have been a little concerned re GK, I certainly rated his knowledge and opinion but I believe he took a too positive view that SXX would get its funding away.
He was on the Salt Lake Potash forum until the 11th March when he announced he had cut most of his investment in SLP to invest in SXX.
Talk about bad timing ... SXX story you know.
SLP has approximately doubled.
You can check my previous posts on my views.

EML have made some play on Morocco being a good place to do business, the latest World Bank report has put them up another 7 places to do business ahead of places like Mexico, India, Saudi Arabia and Italy...

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/32436/9781464814402.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y

So the market often runs ahead of itself, but the market is also cautious... it sounds like Benjamin’s “Mr Market” is still alive and kicking 70years on... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Market
Good... otherwise there will be few opportunities.

Salt lake potash recently came out with their BFS and SP didn’t move.
Any thoughts why?

The second company that maybe affected is Emmerson Potash.
Planning a mine in Morocco for MOP its planned main market is Brazil. This could be a main market for POLY4.
Even with a excellent business case set out in the Scoping study, positive reviews since, positive metallurgical report and offers of bank funding the share price has struggled.
This is likely to be a consequence of negativity with the problems that Sirius is having.
Short term markets are voting machines but long term weighing machines and the price is likely to take off with the BFS that should be out next year. .. especially if there is not competition from Sirius.
https://www.emmersonplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Shard-Capital-EML-21-3-2019.pdf

I still have a few shares in Sirius but to be honest I hold them as a hedge ... if Sirius does get of the ground then it will potentially on other shares...
Salt Lake Minerals .. producing SOP from salt lakes in Australia.. has produced its first evaporation ponds and will plan to produce next year. The BFS was published last week and looks very investible; and I have increased my holding again today. https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SO4/lake-way-bankable-feasibility-study-qwe9s2w66pjzqsw.html
Interestingly even with a very positive BFS the share price hasnt increased.
If SIrius takes of the volume of product could impact on the long term value.
So I am holding a few shares just in case.
I would be interested what others think.

As discussed before Sirius minerals hangover effect.
Some buying by directors wouldn’t go amiss though!

Is there a lot of cross holdings with the fund so people think the NAV will be suppressed by forced selling?

Both Sirius minerals polyhalite and salt lake potash SOP are chloride free potassium fertilisers which have a premium price over MOP.
If Sirius does get of the ground it is so big it may effect the SOP market and hence long term return from salt lake potash?
It maybe worth hanging on to the few shares I still have in SXX as a hedge?

I met Ben Houchen at the Tory conference. Sirius minerals came up in the conversation. He is a very able politician for his years, and if he keeps his nose clean should go far.
He was far more positive than I that Sirius would get built; indeed he was utterly sure that it would be but did not know if private investors would do well out of it...
Its clear he was being supportive as he could be, was very knowledgeable about Sirius but he doesn't make the decisions.