Member Info for Tobin

Best investment case I have seen for years. Company conducts itself well, presents its case well without over hype. But still the SP languishing.
One day I suspect I will be kicking myself for not buying more.
Any thoughts?

Probably worth mentioning .. Morocco is one of the worlds biggest producer and biggest exporter of phosphate fertiliser and is investing heavily in producing compound fertiliser production. For this it needs potash.
This can be MOP .. KCl. Converting to SOP .. potassium sulphate which is desirable for chloride sensitive crops requires conversion with sulphuric acid. This requires access to cheap large scale sulphuric acid... which is available in Morocco as it is used to convert phosphate ore to superphosphate fertiliser. Hence the possibility to produce low cost SOP with high margin sales into the large scale Moroccan compounding fertiliser business.

So we want Sirius minerals SXX with its SOP alternative poly4 to crash and burn.
Every cloud...

One of the issues with EML has to be the systemic risk of operating in Morocco. But here it continues to look like a good place to do business. Morocco has just got a way $1billion of bonds at just 1.6%, much less than previous.
https://www.globalcapital.com/article/b1j456vxdwr28q/morocco-rides-qe-to-reap-rewards-of-tight-euro-market
On ESG risk ..Enviromental, social and governance it is one of the 3 lowest in Africa.
https://www.sustainalytics.com/esg-research/issue-spotlights/african-sovereign-debt-esg-risk/

I think the SP dip was the directors awarding themselves a bunch of shares at the AGM, or that's how I see it, and the SP fall is a dilution effect. Or am I wrong?

Someone else likes the discount, but I agree with other posters here, there are reasons that this may be even more over sold. I bought in, then saw the SP fall, bought more then sold on a bounce so at the moment I am about evens. At some stage this has all the hallmarks of a share that will be over sold on discount and probably underlying shares will be over sold; but I am not quite at the level that I'm going to "pull the trigger" and jump in.

now looks like lots of blue, and even the occasional red looks like it may actually be a buy. We wait.

I think there is some value in “charisma”, and this is an automated site. Charts in theory have all the “information” in them but with sxx there are too many unknown, unknowns. Imo.

I agree, if the company continue to do what they do then this will come good. There is still a good change that another player will come in at some point, who knows when.
I'm not really a chartist, but on the other hand isn't everyone .. SP broke a long downward trend to the upside and then appears to be retesting the trend line. This is usually a positive pattern. We will see.

Im going to reply to myself .. it sound like there are still significant cross holdings with WEI. The NAV may go down more..
https://portfolio-adviser.com/projected-woodford-fund-losses-spell-trouble-for-wpct/
But how much is this priced in?/
One to watch if only for the learning experience...

The Discount looks very attractive. I have seen Investment trusts move to near 50% discounts on a couple of occasions and sometimes its is because the assets are over priced, but often it is because of over selling of a sector and fear sets in.
A couple of times I have bought at this sort of discount .. Russia IT, years ago and Pantheon International in 2008-9, that both did well, and Pantheon I still hold.
The NAV keeps getting written down still. Is this because there continues to be re-rating of holdings, or is it a double sell effect that shares associated with woodford are becoming no go areas?
If we are getting to the pointed of 50% discounts on already over sold shares the bounce could be very significant.
I have seen it before, and done well out of it; but contrarian investing is very hard on the sleep...

.. rather emotive, but the rapid progress rate rather raises the question if they shouldn’t go back to the 4.2m unlined tunnel that was originally planned.
They played safe with a 6m lined tunnel but the Redcar mudstone is turning out to be just as good to dig through as was initially thought.
It was the extra costs of the bigger MTS that really spooked the market and put the project where it is.

The other option is a continuous miner/bolter... not as fast but doesn’t need the set up time and costs of building a launch chamber.
They used both approaches at the Selby super pit and the TBM only overtook at the 7km mark. And that was from the service. Underground launch is even more problematical for the TBM.

OCP are building a big ammonia plant in Nigeria. It’s all part of a big plan to develop a fertiliser industry in Morocco based on the huge phosphate reserves they have. Obviously the other component of NPK is the potash which is where Emmerson fits in so well.
https://af.reuters.com/article/ghanaNews/idAFL8N27U6J9

I think this fits in with the strategy proposed. They are looking for a raised bore team. At present there is no raise bore planned. It is a technique of making shafts that requires bottom access, its cheap and usually used for ventilation shafts.
I suspect that they maybe thinking of finishing of the lockwood beck shaft with a raise bore. They dont need the size of shaft they were building as the plan is not to start a TBM but such a long tunnel would need interval ventilation.
So seems logical.
Can not see where else you would use one.

Maybe so. today the screen is all blue with buys...

There has been some large trades, and all sells. I don’t usually get spooked by the randomness of trades but this does look unusual. We will see.

This may be some where in the posts, if it is I apologise. Gina has £250 million in this “hole in the ground”; and has the money to put in more. So where is she on this? She saddling up her white horse?

SP has drifted lower. I still find it hard to price this share. If it keeps increasing production, extending to other lakes, etc, then it looks very attractively priced, and only more so with lower SP.
Any thoughts?? Anyone out there??

This is my post from May. I thought they were over building, and had at least one TBM to many; and that roadheaders/ continuous miners were the way too go.
I still think they are over building and should go back to the 4.2m diameter MTS they originally planned.
And I still think EML is a much better prospect.. there some good resource on the LSE chat; and is well under the radar..

RE: As for the mts......03 May 2019 15:59
The contract I understand is done, but building TBMs underground are going to be very difficult. They have cut the numbers from previous but still sounds like 1 TBM to many. I suspect and hope that the drive rate will be significantly faster than predicted (geology of this area is well understood, and very ”diggable”).
They suspect they are going to use large road headers to build the launch chamber for the TBM; my thought is they let them build part of the tunnel if it looks like tunnelling is slow. They are not as quick but wouldn’t need the large launch chamber or set up time for a TBM.
Time will hopefully tell.