Member Info for Tobin

A decline shaft, so a ramp.. infact 2 ramps. You need 2 access shafts for safety and for ventilation. Decline shafts are longer but easier to construct and allow conveyors to extract the potash. The plan is to use continuous miners to drive these which will then be used to extract the potash.
There will be some blasting through a layer of harder rock.
This is the plan, but we await the full details.
But essentially a lower cost access method because of the relatively shallow depth and absence of aquifier.

For a potash mine this isn’t deep and importantly there is no aquifer that needs to be frozen to access the potash. This lowers the capex significantly.

NAV down 50p on FX following the surge in sterling after the election.

While I still hold shares in SXX most of my spare cash is now in alternate potash companies.
Emmerson developing a low cost potash mine in Morocco looks very underpriced.
I suggest you have a look.
Also the Australian salt lake projects are moving ahead quickly. Salt lake potash is the easiest to invest in from the UK and has huge potential but there are others like Australian potash.
There are a few ex SXX on the forum. Have a look but not too many posts please !

Thanks for this, I probably did see this at the time but forgot about it!
I think I rather dismissed APC because SLP is quoted o the uK market so could go in my ISA and SIPP. SLP also has other lakes and bigger long term potential.
I also didnt appreciate the difference in one being a salt lake development that can be done by trenches (SLP) compared to a bore field (APC). Both increasingly look doable but we wait for the long term pumping result from APC. Though SLP is also looking at bore field development.
APC is priced with a lower capitation so may see more growth in the near future. SLP maybe more in the future as it develops more lakes, but APC resource is large with room for expansion.
Both have there advantages as far as an investor is concerned and I now hold shares in both. I hold more shares in EML than either.
The SOP market is big enough and likely to grow. SXX may have some impact on SOP in some areas but polyhalite is low potassium and transport cost will undermine its benefits.

$2million for the road connection is much less than SXX!
Let’s hope the mine costs are also low cost.

See valuation below, from recent RNS.
The present valuation is a couple of percent of that so plenty of upside potential but there will by dilution, the question is how much. I think there is 5-10x upside.
· Post tax NPV10 across Emmerson's project portfolio now in excess of US$1.8 billion

o Khemisset Potash Project - US$1.14bn3

o SOP Project - US$411 million

o Salt Project - US$266 million4

o NPV10 to Capex ratio of 3.5x

January RNS Valuation for November 30th NAV 2,799.
There has been a pull back in the SP from £26 to £25 in the past week, but this follows a good Xmas/Post election rally.
The US tech market has surged since November, sterling to the dollar increased post election but is much the same as the end of November.
Hopefully the US stock market rally will be reflected in the PIN NAV in coming months. The pull back in SP looks a time to add to shareholdings.

As a long term investor in sxx I became more jaundiced about a year ago and more interested in some of the other potash projects going on in the world.
Emmerson potash EML looks very attractive, share price and valuation looks very low, probably suppressed by the fall out of SXX.
And some of the Australian "salt lake" projects .. Salt Lake Potash SOP has made my money back, but still looks like has huge growth potential (Its only developing the first of 11 Lakes)
Another is APC, Australian potash. Earlier stage but lower valuation.
EML and SOP boards are reasonably active and well informed. So If your interest?
Sorry for the Hijack.

I haven't seen much comment on gina re the Anglo bid. Her loan is backed by a call on assets but I would be surprised if she was just going to walk away with that. I don't believe that is her style.
Thoughts?

Thanks SM,
Australian Potash in the same region but not the same. A little further behind than SO4 and not a lake. They are going to abstract from a paleochannel (old river system) with bore field. But the capitalisation is much lower at present.
DNK I have looked at but the cost of SOP with royalties etc is very similar to APC .. $258/t to $262/t.
APC looks a much lower risk Eritrea vs Australia!
Morocco makes me anxious enough (and my wife!)
Sorry for the Hijacking everyone .. just looking will awaiting news!

If the company is bought presumably Gina will still do well out of it.
But how well, or could she still be another bidder?

hadn't noticed the SXX bid, I still have a few shares though I sold most in the summer. EML looked much more likely to deliver a decent return and I still think so.
Some other potash plays look interesting. I have shares in Salt lake Potash but Australian potash looks attractive. Anyone any thoughts? Including how easy it is to buy shares on the ASX from uk?

This is a video from another SOP project "Australian Potash" A neighbour of SLP. A little further behind, but market cap is only A$38 million. Not on the AIM, but could invest via stock broker or IG.
Anyone got any thoughts?
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/310742/lake-wells-potash-project-sets-australian-potash-apart--10742.html

Dear Mr Jones, thanks but no thanks.
It is quite clear you haven't a clue what this company is actually doing.

Mr Jones, I also disagree. The progress of the company has been exemplary. Potash mines do not get built in a day.
Over cooked? I expect the company to show the upside, but they do so within the limits of the JORC which many would view as conservative.
Indebted? No, they have plenty of cash for what they need to do now; and that is to deliver "Bankable Feasibility Study" (the detailed design, engineering and costings).
Underachieving? I have not seen that yet, indeed the reverse.
But If you have some useful insight please do expand your comments.

I would argue what is most important is the likelihood of most of the development being backed by low cost debt :
"In June, we announced that we had been approached by a large European commercial bank with an indicative offer for debt financing for Khemisset. The indication was based on highly conservative assumptions applied by the bank, including a delivered potash price in Brazil of US$235/tonne, a 40% discount to the spot price at the time. Despite these conservative assumptions, the bank indicated the Project could comfortably sustain leverage of US$230 million, or approximately 60% of the total project capital cost. We strongly believe that, with negotiation, this number can be significantly improved"
or government subsidies..

5% finish to the day. A chartist would probably say this is quite positive, a downwards pendant is a positive sign and then a breakout as expected to the upside. Arguably the pendant was rather short, and maybe it was just a seasonal effect. The problem with charts. Merry Xmas.

Well certainly an impressive Christmas rally.
Should help keep the wife happy when we make year end review of our investments.

Continues with a strong surge in share price, right passed the £24 mark and nearly to £25/share . That would be nice to see before xmas.