Member Info for Tobin

Doubled up again yesterday. Hopefully being "greedy when others a fearful". I suspect not greedy enough, so still fearful.
The other old adage is "buy when there is blood on the streets". Hopefully it will not come to that but this coronavirus has all the possibilities of being really nasty.
Hopefully it will die down in a couple of months (but swine flu initially peaked in July) and we will have a vaccine before next winter, but it is not clear that this will happen. There are a lot of "unknown unknowns"

I topped up at the same price.

Coronavirus could be very, very bad; and I have shorts on the major markets. But I don't see that it should particularly effect the share price of TXP. Though they are supposed to drill a couple of wells under agreements before October. But if coronavirus is that bad then I think they will be able to get extensions.
Looks a buying opportunity. Not sure we are at the bottom yet though.

The properties are medical centers backed by long leases to GPs, and some extent pharmacies. The Leases are set at the rate of the rent that the GPs get from the government. So they are not government backed, in fact they are better. The leases are to the doctors so that even if the NHS stops paying the rents the doctors are still liable, so the rents will be paid unless the NHS stops paying and the doctors go bankrupt. At that point your best investment is in razor wire and shot guns.

Hydrocarbons are not usually an area that I know much about, I rather found myself in this area from Sirius; but thanks for this tip. It does look very interesting. The share price has tripled in a couple of months but TPX is an interesting company. Not just a development company, it already has wells and is producing cash. But the upside looks very significant still.
There have been a few presentations recently by the CEO who seems to certainly know his stuff, and isnt over stating the upside...
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/913059/touchstone-exploration-ceo-paul-baay-at-proactive-s-oil-capital-conference-913059.html
I bought a few shares yesterday, selling some of my Pantheon International shares that I have held for a decade...

Having seen a significant rally the trading is light, and maybe not surprising that there has been a little weakness, but this gives an opportunity to pick up some a few more, using the last cash in my ISA.
Notably the spread on LSE looks wide, 4.5p-4.9p but my quote was 4.69p, obviously to buy.
There is a trade on LSE down as "unknown", at 4.7p, and quite big 912k shares. This will be a buy.

Great little summary of the benefits of the infrastructure in Morocco keeping cost down.

Before this was announced 6/12/19 the shares had been trading over 40p, A$ 0.80 so when announced that "insiders" had subscribed for more shares at A$0.70, including CEO and Chair of Board I was slightly miffed. But pleased to see "insiders" more than happy to put hard cash in at those levels.
And now, with no new information, we can buy in at a 10% discount! .. really should be buying more, but it is hard to do when the share price is going down. Warren Buffett I suspect would have no problems!

Increasing volume and all buys. .. suspect we will see 6-7p then some pull back??

It does continue to trade as chart patterns would predict .. up nearly 20% in 5 days with no new news. Fascinating.

The RNS is just a confirmation of the share placement but important to note that the CEO and Chairman picked up 250,000 and 428,000 share respectively at A$ 0.70, and now the share price is A$ 0.65.
Its not often you can pick shares at a discount to those in the "inner circle" ...

Quite a fall in share price for no clear reason. On ADVFN suggestion that it is linked to a fund manager in Sydney “shutting its doors” .
Seems odd though because the fall came largely before the RNS and nothing I see in the RNS to cause the drop.
Thoughts??

As much as I don't believe in charts I recognise that many investors including my self are ultimately influenced by them. EML is hopefully on a rising trend from low in December but it is at the bottom end of the trend. This could be a good point to buy. But the risk is that it breaks downwards. From a fundamentalist point of view just a better opportunity to buy but could drop to 3.5p?.
I think there is a risk of this if it closes below the recent low of 4.1, especially if below 4p. Am I going to trade with the opportunity of buying back again lower?? Probably not.

It does look attractive, but the total cash costs look similar to a number of the Australian Salt Lake projects.
https://www.danakali.com.au/images/stories/pdf/Investor_Pack_2019.pdf .. page 13... Total Cash Cost $242/t
Australian Potash https://www.australianpotash.com.au/site/PDF/1984_0/DefinitiveFeasibilityStudyPresentation Total Cash Cost $262/t
I think I discounted Danakali on the basis that Australia represented less risk than Eritrea. Was I wrong?
There again I don't believe a potash mine in Morocco is not without geopolitical risk..
I think it is reasonable on a board for EML to reflect on the competition.

It’s worth noting that Eml is very similar to Highfield Resources that is developing a mine in Spain.
Muga mine is planned to be 500kt potash and then to double. Also low cost with no aquifer and shallow 350m. The potash grade is the same.
The plan to access with declines is the same.
And Haydn Locke was head of investor relations at Highfield.
Highfield got tied up with environmental permits but have recently got them..
Here’s a link to video
https://youtu.be/bioYVxJ2mq4
Highfield has other potential projects but the Muga mine is the flagship, eml I believe actually has a bigger JORC resource.
Main difference is arguably the capitalisation .. Highfield is A$250million (30million cash) EML not so much ..£29million.
So looks like plenty of upside.
Or am I missing something?

ex-sxx .. the aquifer is not that risky. The sandstone is quite strong and the flooding will come from cracks in the sandstone. These can be grouted and this was done quite successfully with the Boulby mine.
The risk with Sirius is that the Polyhalite is low potassium so is a bulky commodity and will there really be a market for 10mt/y or ideally 20mt/y tons a year at a premium price?
There is a premium for the SOP over the MOP but there are a number of SOP projects, especially in the salt lakes of Australia.
If there is an enduring premium for SOP and especially for the POLY4 then SXX is cheap, if not, its going to be an expensive hole in the ground.
The market hasn't exactly marked AAL share price up since its bid.

While we wait for more updates has anyone any thoughts on other potash plays .. Salt Lake Potash is easiest for a UK investor to invest in but there are others. Australian Potash I like. I still think EML has the biggest potential, but SXX is a reminder about not having all your eggs in one basket!

A comment by Hayden in a Mining Magazine:
“Alongside the ESIA, our feasibility study continues to progress well and is currently ahead of schedule. We look forward to continuing to keep the market updated with various parts of the study as we progress towards its final release during the first half of 2020.”
https://www.miningreview.com/speciality-minerals/moroccos-emmerson-commences-esia-study-potash-project/
So looks like they will "over deliver" again. Lets hope so.

So do I.
There has been a bit of a sell off, but from a chart perspective eml broke decisively a downwards trend, and is retesting the 4-4.25p range. Hopefully we will see it then continue upwards to break the 6p.
I have bought 100k more today, finishing off my unused ISA cash.
Though I find myself watching charts I ultimately invest on fundamentals. If it goes lower with the continuing positive news flow then I know where my next ISA cash will be finding itself.

There is still the possibility of a different arrangement. Ventilation is important for any mine and it maybe they decide to go for a raise bore shaft. These are cheap but are dependent on competent rock and need bottom access. You would still need 2 access declines for safety requirements but one, the conveyor decline could be narrower.
This sort of arrangement maybe used if they want more ventilation especially if they want to go bigger.
How you access the potash depends on the depth, the rock, the likely needs for ventilation, the size of the mine etc. To some extent there is always a play between capex and opex. The resource is only moderate grade but the capex is looking relatively very low. But mines like this are always expensive.