Member Info for Tobin

It sounds like they want to drill the Chinook Well next because if that is as big or bigger than Cascadura then this may alter the size of the pipeline that they will put in to tie Cascadura to the main pipeline, as it is only a mile from Cascadura. Or that is what I got from this interview.
https://www.*************.net/touchstone-exploration-ceo-excited-by-flow-rates-at-cascadura/

Dear minded... watched the video..types of Coronavirus have always been around but this is new, and in particularly older patients has a very high mortality rate.
It is also now very widespread. It is often quite a typical presentation.
My daughter had it 2weeks ago, probably got from few hours in a “student bar” central London.
My son, a hospital doctor, went down with it 3days ago. So it looks very common in the younger age group. How many we don’t know because there is no testing.
It will spread ( like influenza does) to the older age group and then it will take 2-3 weeks before the deaths to occur.
Hopefully the social isolation will start to kick in but it’s going to take time... if they work.
And then, if, measures are eased it will likely flare again.
This is going to run for many months.
I think the economy and stock market is going to struggle for sometime but yes, in a year things will be different..

for the record, nav end of feb 2906, 5% rise.
But that was before the markets caught a rather nasty bug...
Will be interesting to see next months RNS but a month is a long, long time in markets like this.

Dear 55018,
I followed you to TXP from Salt Lake Potash following your comment on that board, happy I did. But SLP still looks like a great company about to deliver its first product later this year and is half the price now than when the CEO, Chair and some key institutional investors bought in at a small discount 3 months ago. Long term prospects, like TXP, remain good. When covid has run its course in a year or so the world population will still be larger than it is now.

I to saw MotleyFool on Warren.
WB would argue that you haven't lost anything in the last week. You still own the same shares as you did 3 weeks ago. If you don't believe the long term earning capacity of those stocks that you own has fundamentally changed then this is just an opportunity.
This is extremely difficult to do however.
It is similar in a bubble market when you believe that shares are over priced. Benjamin Graham, WBs mentor, warned against betting against the market as the market can remain irrational than you can remain solvent.
And another old adage re bubbles .. the bubble continues until the last bear turns ( I recall in the dotcom bubble there was a bear that never turned, but he got sacked .. the bubble burst shortly afterwards).
I bought in more yesterday, but I am still sitting on cash. I will wait to see WB starting to be greedy.

It is reassuring that satellites are showing nitrogen oxide pollution building again over china. It does mean that china is getting back into action. Unfortunately europe and the USA are not handling this pandemic anything like as well. Its going to be a long summer. The UK still seem intent on letting this virus run, and without a testing and contact tracing strategy it is likely to reach a natural peak in the summer. When the peak will occur will depend on how much suppression with the social distancing. As we have instituted quite a lot of this now, and providing it holds up then the peak will be lower but will also be delayed.
The question then is how the social and political turmoil that comes with the social distancing policies and the consequences of seeing large numbers of hospitalisations and inevitable deaths plays out on the stock market.
I note the Italian stock market appears to have stabilised over the past week about 40% down, even though numbers of cases and deaths increase. Indeed the market appears to be more affected by world markets, or is it that world markets are responding to what they see in Italy?

Down by 70% thanks to Covid-19, but long term prospects haven’t altered... buy.

Reply to self.
Was a clear buy back in 2016, but recall was about 50% discount in 2008-9 and clearly the best buying time.
Opportunity knocks...

We live in interesting times.
Arguably the US market was set for a fall as I have commented before.
Cash is king and fortunately I’m sitting on a greater percentage than Warren Buffett so I’m not going to beat myself up too much when not expecting such a response to Covid.
I don’t see it having truly long term effects on the companies Pantheon invests in
The NAV was 20+% before fall.
The 50% fall from peak is over done, especially with so much $ denominated, NAV should have gone up by 10-15% on currency.
Pin has tended to follow Nasdaq which is off 30%.
So the 44% discount from Morningstar maybe right but it’s difficult to assess.
I think it is closer to 50% especially as it was holding about 10% in cash the discount to NAV of shares must be closer to 50%
Haven’t seen this sort of position for years.
Time to start putting cash back to work.

Indeed. This should not lead to long term economic problems. People will need fertiliser, grow food , eat.
But there could be dire political consequences for governments that mess up.
On the other hand there will hopefully be plenty of money pushed in the system and positive approach to business over next year or so.

Morocco also has a much younger population profile. The impact is going to be significantly less than, say, Italy.

the CSO suggested that 20,000 deaths would be a good outcome for the UK, as if this was even possible. Imperial have done calcs that even with repeated successful social distancing measures deaths would be 250, 000
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
And the death rates are highly optimistic. Only around 0.5% of population in wuhan were infected, and wuhan 11m people was supported by 2nd largest economy in the world, .. 1.4billion.
The UK government is not attempting to contain this epidemic, only to suppress it to flatten the curve. It expects 70% of people to become infected before herd immunity is reached.
The mortality rate is much more likely to be that of Italy under this scenario as the health service fails to cope. Maybe twice that of china.
This is as a direct result of the governments approach. I suggest you listen to a few WHO press conferences.
But this is oversold and I actually bought more today.

There has been a lot of work on this antivirals .. they are mainly HIV drugs.. but how to use them, on who and when and what combination will take time .. and in the UK we are not trying to buy time.. just letting the virus rip.

As always the long term business case is strong and if anything is better now as money is getting flooded in.
But uk is going ahead with this bizarre policy of letting Coronavirus virus run a loose.
There will not be “blood on the streets” but the death toll will be appalling and likely to be far far wore than other countries.
This is likely to cause political instability even with Tory majority as it is.
Probably buy in heavy in July after first peak

Its almost like tobacco .. which I will not buy because if actually kills people... but gas has been the main way countries like the UK have actually reduced CO2 emissions.
And renewables are doing well but they are intensely variable sources of power and we have no clear way to store to level out supply/demande at the scale required.
Any wind turbine essentially doesnt produce energy half the time .. its to do the wind energy to the cube of wind velocity.
and then when wind stops we use natural gas fed turbines. As gas has half the CO2 of coal then the net CO2 of wind/NG is 1/4 that of coal.
Then you can look at carbon capture...
World has got to love NG again
(so long as you dont leak it during extraction/transport)
Sorry .. sunday morning, trying to avoid covid.

Obviously the markets are down on Coronavirus, and this company in the longer term shouldn't really be affected.
But the UK government, unlike any other country in the world has made the decision to let this virus run through the population over the next few months .. the peak will be in june/july .. over 3-weeks, maybe 400, 000 to 1.2million will die, but then it will all be over by xmas.
Question is do you think the market has actually now fully factored this in or is there more to fall??

Actually looks like the worst of the coronavirus could be controllable by testing and contact tracing. WHO press briefing .. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2921&v=sbT6AANFOm4&feature=emb_logo
But will be succeed in doing this??

Worth remembering that the company raised money at approx 38p/share only a few days ago from “the in crowd”and that was at a discount as it so often is, and now few humble PIs can buy at 10% discount from that.
Worth watching Warren Buffett recent interview, he is only bothered about 5, 10 20 year potential and if the SP goes down...great.. more share of the company for less.
Being able to buy in at less than the insiders ... what not to like?

Probably rather passed people by with what is happening elsewhere but the company has posted an updated presentation.
https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/so4/47042401-634.pdf
It talks of developing enhanced evaporation techniques and continuous extraction process from the ponds.
This should reduce the area of ponds needed.
I suspect that this may include the development of "spray fields". Only a guess but there is much more energy in the dry,hot air blowing across the ponds than the ponds can pick up from solar gain. But it looks like they think they can lower the capex cost of development. We will see.

So price has dropped, now A$ 0.545 ... it was only 2 months ago that insiders, including CEO and Chair bought in at A$0.7 .. at a 10 cent discount to the then price. That is 30% higher than now.
We know the reason for the fall, but I don't see how coronavirus will effect the long term profitability of this company.
For the long term investor, and maybe just the short term investor, this maybe the time to buy. It may go lower but for the long term investor that should only an opportunity.