Member Info for Tobin

Bought more for this years ISA

Quite a small dilution, about 20% more shares. And at a discount of 10.9%. As the real loss to me as an investor was the in crowd getting them at a discount the loss to me is less than 2%, but in return I have the knowledge that the CEO and Chair have both bought in more, like they did in December. And especially the Chair .. 2.25m shares.
So the shares are about half the price (ASX 0.36) that the CEO and chair bought in December, and now they have bought in even more..
So looks like I will have to buy some more too. And if the price falls further, that's fine... I will by even more!

Its reassuring.
Another play is Trigg Mining that have lakes to the south. Actually look better placed for access to the Great Northern road. Had its IPO late last year and has been dragged down also. The capitation is less than the cash it raised at the IPO. Looks attractive, if you can by shares from the UK. Its capitation is only about A$2million now.
But their consulting geologist has been buying and owns over 5% of the shares. Now theres confidence.

Thats intimated in one of the videos. Chinook is south of Cascadura, and the pipeline they want to tie Cascadura into is a couple of km further north. IF Chinook is a hit then the connections from Cascadura/Chinook will have to be bigger.. Or thats what it sounded like.

Thanks. It notes they are looking at a couple of sites but dont mention if they have any options to buy. Presume they have but it would be nice to see it.

The covid is not affecting works or significantly SOP price, and why should it? People have still got to eat.
So bought more at sub 20p today . When the "in crowd" including MD/CEO and Chair bought significant quantities at a discount of approx 35p in December and the metrics have not changed, why not?

I too have found my way here.
The discount looks so big that it looks like valuation is less than it hold in cash.

Let’s hope so but Covid has messed up a lot of plans.

Chinook spud in May/June??? .. lets just say I think a very, very, very small thing is likely to spoil the party IMO!

Sorry off topic, but anyone with thoughts on RSE? Its an investment trust, I can not see any borrowings, SP has tanked and its Market cap £113m is now sitting at less than the cash it had end of january $183m or thats what it looks like...
https://www.riverstonerel.com/news-media/4q19-quarterly-portfolio-valuations/
The valuation of its assets will be down, quite a few shale plays.. but with such a high discount ??

re 2nd link .. try google royston txp .. *************

Indeed a good summary but maybe misses part of the story that the companies assessment of the geology across the central block looks right. This increases the likelihood that both Cascadura and Royston will be major finds, and the size of the geology at Cascadura and Royston are significantly bigger (not mentioned).
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/212816
https://www.*************.net/ceo-qa-with-paul-baay-at-touchstone-exploration-inc-lontxp/

Pantheon is sitting at a significant discount. HL and morningstar put at 40% but they are using the NAV at the end of Feb. But what is it now. Well the £/$ weaker should increase the NAV. Maybe 4-5%.
But the valuation is going to be lower. Pantheon has tended to track the tech100. This has rallied of its lows, maybe 20% down from average of Feb, when most of the valuations for NAV for PIN will have been made.
So NAV may be 2500.
Discount maybe 35%. It has been higher, but not much.
And remember about 10% of NAV is actually cash. This means the discount on the share valuation is higher. Maybe 38%.
I have started to increase my holdings from my cash. I have been sitting on too much cash for too long, it is good to have the opportunity to get in to the market on better valuations and bigger discounts.
I heard one quote that the time of maximal panic is probably over but the time of maximal pessimism is yet to come. I think this is right but it is hard to call the bottom of a market ..or the top.

Thanks Moric, I think I am managing to get my head round some of the reports...
“Coho was assigned gross working interest 1P reserves of 1,148 Mboe and gross working interest 2P reserves of 3,349 Mboe with a 2P NPV10 of $27.5 million before taxes.”
So Cascadura X2 bigger?
Then the other sites.
What is reassuring for me is that the private placement will have included those with real knowledge of the risk/benefit and they where happy to buy in at a discount 38p only 5weeks ago.
Or has the world really changed that much?

could not resist...

Yes, he spent A$128k topping up at A$0.35. Considering he bought on the discounted institutional placing at A$0.70 only in December I guess he could resist.
So why should we??

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/915371/salt-lake-potash-ceo-tony-swiericzuk-purchases-shares-worth-128733-915371.html

Thanks Moric, not sure you can use NPV10 to price a company with a clearly defined resource that may have a limited life span. As I understand it is the production discharge curve that is important which is usually assessed on similar well production. Thoughts?

2wells at 40 million cf/d EACH..

TXP looks like it is seriously undervalued but how much. This isnt an area I have much expertise in but I want to put down a few numbers so if someone can tell me is I am wrong.
The main resource we know of and is reasonably assessed is Cascadura. And PB has stated that initial production rate would be 40-60million cf/day,
https://www.*************.net/touchstone-exploration-ceo-excited-by-flow-rates-at-cascadura/
and that to drain it over 15-20years would require 1 or 2 further wells.
Also he has stated the price of NG locally is more than $3/1000 cf.
So initial revenue with 2 wells, and 40 million cf/d would be $240,000/day.
But rate rapidly falls. How much can we reasonably expect ?
I attach a paper from the Cannonball West field, and it looked like the field was drained with 3 wells over 5 years. Average flow half the initial.
Assuming similar .. is that reasonable?? .. then total revenue maybe $120,000/d x 1800days = $200 million.
Chinook maybe bigger, but maybe 50/50 chance of success from PBs comments.
and then there is Royston.
This is revenue and not profits, not included condensate, or existing production. But does look like this company should be valued at several times the cf $60 million it is today.
Anyone else want to question or refine this numbers?
Especially profit??
https://www.healyenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/SPE-110524-PP.pdf

.. on directors talk