Member Info for Tobin

There are clear opportunities here but this company will has to raise huge amounts of cash to built the mine and associated plant. Though borrowed money to governments is ridiculously cheap, it isn't for this sort of project. It is a problem but it is the way that it is. Unfortunately this is likely to result in marked dilution or a loan package with a high interest rate or some component of equity dilution. This is the way that it is.
Until we see what the cost of capital is for the development phase it is hard to value the current SP .

Just checked on my purchase and looks like I only got just over £8000 of my 10K ask of North. From the North website it looks like my trade went through as a series of 5000 share trades. The price of North went up. It looks like the share price may be very sensitive to purchases??

Hit 1.38 in Canada (79p) before closing at 1.37.
A good finish for the week.

I have added to my exposure to TXP with a 10K purchase in North Energy. The discount they must be at with the size of holding they have in TXP as discussed previously was too much. I always like investment funds at big discounts. Now if they just do a buy back and return cash they are sitting on then I will be very pleased!
It was for my sipp with AJ Bell. I had to phone, and they had to telephone trade at £29.95 FYI, but no hassle.

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Some certainty to earning would be very helpful. Hopefully the NGC contract will deliver some of that.
Part of my concern going forwards is that oil prices can take a real beating at times of recession. Though other times there can be a inverse association with stock markets I think this was more important in the past aka 1970s than now.
We are sitting at the end of a multi year bull market in USA. And then there is Covid.
I remain bullish for txp over 3-5year time frame, but I have started to short the S+P. (and Tesla).

I have taken some of those sells but only some!
But sometimes you have to let your winners run. TXP has been a 10bagger over the last 3years but it could easy 10bag over the next. We could see it 3-4 bag in a few months.
But camglen if you have a better investment please share!
Or are you going to cash?
US markets are in bubble territory and with Covid we could see a correction that lowers all ships.

Dana,
Really interesting to hear that the gas pressures were “huge” when they drilled Chinook in the 1950s, have you a reference?

The valuation for Cascadura was very cheap. The income stream will exceed present market cap in 3-4years.
Yes it is 5x its SP before Cascadura but it is about to produce 10x as much. So with time the SP is only going one way.
Any other hits are on top.

Back to TXP , Investors chronicle have tipped TXP. I get IC and generally I like it but I think the article is weak, failing to get across the size of the Cascadura strike, whingeing on about the low NG prices in USA, which are irrelevant, and failing to mention the huge opportunities of future turbidite fairway plays.
But IC can move shares.

They have certainly gone through some cash. There is a great resource here but making money out of it with the costs of development has been difficult. However I think you can see that the company has now identified particularly high reward area with the DX project and developed low cost way of accessing it. When we look back the development costs and time may look well spent.

ST, you need to understand and believe in the stock. If you are inclined to sell just because others are selling it is because you believe they know something you don't, or are somehow smarter. The later I never had a problem with and time has told me the former is rarely true. I follow Warren Buffet and buy more when the price goes down. I did this afternoon. I also still sit on cash because the market may yet through a curve ball and when it does cash is always king.

Makingdough, I agree it could be that North are selling again, we will see if there is an RNS; but gave me a chance to top up at a couple of pennys lower.

I thought last week we had broken up out of a trend channel and expected to retrace the trend line. Providing we stay above 70p end of day I think the chartist in me would think the breakout is still in force and last chance to buy.

Yes it is still a bargain, last year it was 12p/share, but by next year it will be producing maybe 10 times the equivalent, gas, rather than oil. Last year it wasn't clear if the company has right that this block of land in Trinidad had a lot more to offer. Trinidad has had over 10,000 wells drilled over 100 years. But it looks like they were right.
The capitalization of the company will be covered by the profits of just one well, Cascadura, with in 4 years.
You could wait another 3 months but they will have drilled another 2 wells by then, and if they are right and have more big hits the price could be 3 bagged again.
DYOR

North is on the Norway stock exchange, fairly safe.
March financial report they stood at 50% discount to NAV, they had been sold of heavily like so many in the sector. They had more cash than their NAV and TXP their main investment. At that time TXP was 24p/share and valuation of TXP in portfolio approx £4.9million. If they hadnt sold any it would be about £15million. The 6.9% is now worth £9.31million. How much did they make selling TXP shares? £2million-£3Million?. If they sat on that cash they would have about £14million cash.
Still as much cash as their capitation.
They have Shares in reach subsea, they are up 38% since March 31st, so if they still own them, then worth 4.4million now.
If the other 8% on investments havent gone up, and remember we are talking of 31st March, they would still be £1.7million.
So investments txp, reach and others would be £15.4 million. So even though their SP is up they are likely to be still sitting at a discount of >50% to NAV, thanks to TXP
They were saying that they were going to invest some of their cash. If they did those investments could have done rather well over the past few months.
TXP was 23% of NAV. Now it will be over 30%
And they have done big share buy backs...
They had some tax question hanging over them, but that was dropped.
2nd quarter report out on 31st August.
It looks a bargain.

Interesting... looked at them a few months back and they looked a potential good buy then, and with the increase in TXP I can see they would be better.
I spoke to AJ Bell, my SIPP, and they said they could buy but trade size available on the system was very small but they would go to the market maker for me but it would cost some more.
Maybe worth looking again!

I found my way to TXP by a post on Salt Lake Potash as I recall. SLP still looks very interesting. Trigg mining a very low cap SOP play. Theres Dankali a huge 100years SOP play, Emerson potash a low cost MOP plat in Morocco.
I also like jubilee minerals, recycling mine waste, and making serious money.

I agree Phoebus, a very bullish chart pattern. See my earlier post. I try not to invest on such things myself but I am very aware that this pattern can be very positive for SP.

I will post what I have just put on advfn. It is what I see as a likely scenario from here....
SP has been trending higher but has broken up out of its trend. This will interest some who follow such things.
They will also be impressed by the story. Even at these levels TXP is undervalued against clearly defined cash flow. NPV will be covered in cash within 4years.
2 more wells lined up to drill in the next few months, a wall of cash next year that will attract another group of investors.
Road to Royston has 4 or 5 targets, and PB has indicated they may go for a second drill rig, an ultra-modern one with new 3d seismic data they may blow some cash or this share price may just blow.
I suspect that this break out could be the start of re-rating that could see a 3-4x rise from these levels over the summer, especially if Chinook is a strike, which seems likely.