Member Info for Tobin

And the SP goes down. Good to see valuations up. Always has been some concern how valuations are made in the VC sector but worth saying PIN have been reasonably conservative.

Interestingly David & Monique Newlands who are big shareholders TXP are also big holders in Totally plc. So some obvious connections here!
A Derby based company I have met the CEO in the past and one of the managers. Small world!

Richard Sneller has reduced his holding slightly from 3.52% to 2.98%.
from an entry on txp lse in 2018 when he bought in. Quick google..
"Richard Sneller was born in 1972 and obtained a Bsc and an Msc in Statistics and Investment Analysis from London School of Economics and the University of Stirling respectively. He has thirteen years of experience as a fund manager. Richard joined Baillie Gifford in 1994 and is currently fund manager of the Baillie Gifford Emerging Markets Growth Fund. He applies a bottom up, growth approach for his funds."
Retired from Baille Gifford in April.
Looks like he was heavily involved in Omega Diagnostics, 25% ownership back in January, https://simplywall.st/news/do-insiders-own-shares-in-omega-diagnostics-group-plc-lonodx/
And Its five bagged this year on covid.
So it doesnt look like he needs the money unless he has other plans. It looks like he has been buying into another AIM company, Totally plc
https://www.insidermedia.com/news/midlands/former-partner-ups-stake-in-aim-listed-firm

It’s announced in the Trinidad press than an ammonia plant is to be closed because of “market conditions.
https://trinidadexpress.com/news/local/nutrien-closes-local-ammonia-plant-indefinitely/article_4a1bb516-fd35-11ea-88dd-e3743536d15c.html
We know that Trinidad is short of gas for its chemical industry, so is this good for TXP or may it mean that there may be pressure from politicians to keep the price low in the deal with TXP?

Corpse, agree entirely. This BB appears to have attracted a bunch of ill informed derampers. If they have any real info please I am happy to be informed, otherwise please short as much as you can. A lower price will make it cheaper to top up if we see positive results over the next few month. Even if chinook is a dud TXP are still at a discount to future cash flow.

still finished 79p in toronto.

Not totally off topic, if there is some huge improvement in combined charge rate/capacity/longevity/price of batteries then this could impact an oil company! And Tesla is having its "Battery day" tomorrow. May push covid off the news.
But I still feel that NG is going to remain important, maybe even more important.
SP is off the highs, probably general market sentiment.

I looked at desten.com, wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole. They apparently have invented some super fast charging battery that avoids heat problems but still has multiple recharges in the 1000s; so what are they going to do with this? Start building super cars?
There’s another use for lithium than batteries.
Stick with TXP, good things come to those that wait.

There is an article on another Trinidad oil/gas, Trinity (TRIN) in investors chronicle this week. I know some members watch this company. https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2020/09/15/small-cap-value-buys/
Similar to TXP, the valuation looks low at 8p, with brokers fair value at 36p. The article notes that the government is going to vote next month to lift the Supplemental Petroleum Tax threshold from $50/barrel to $75/barrel. Will be helpful if we see an increase in oil price; but the fact that the government is looking to do this makes me optimistic on the gas contract.

Issues with sound as well, had to bring in junior.
Also talked about 20 other targets, above and below, so clear 5 year exploration horizon,
how you can see TXP going to 10,15, 20,000 BOE/day.
on "wall of cash", and dividends... its all going back into the ground for now.
And on the social/environment approach of the company, that this is important, especially as they are not drill and scoot but looking at being there for 20 years +

Do need to take in the advisories, but lots of upside as the company gets better at interpreting the data and drilling the wells. T&T has had over 10,000 wells drilled over the last 100years. There’s a lot more to come.
This presentation discloses total drilling locations. Drilling locations are classified into three categories: (i) proved locations; (ii) probable locations; and (iii) unbooked locations. Proved locations and probable locations are derived from the Company's reserves evaluation of GLJ Ltd. effective December 31, 2019 and account for locations that have associated proved and/or probable reserves, as applicable. Unbooked locations are internal estimates based on the prospective acreage associated with the Company’s assets and an assumption as to the number of wells that can be drilled based on industry practice and internal review. Unbooked locations do not have attributed reserves. Of the approximately 208 (net) drilling locations identified herein, 54 are proved locations; 29 are probable locations; and the remaining are unbooked locations. Unbooked locations have been identified by Management as an estimation of potential multi-year drilling activities based on evaluation of applicable geologic, seismic, engineering, production and reserves information. There is no certainty that the Company will drill all unbooked drilling locations, and if drilled there is no certainty that such locations will result in additional oil and gas reserves or production. The locations on which the Company will drill wells will ultimately depend upon the availability of capital, regulatory approvals, crude oil and natural gas prices, costs, actual drilling results, additional reservoir information that can be obtained and other factors. While certain of the unbooked drilling locations have been de-risked by drilling existing wells in relative close proximity to such unbooked drilling locations, other unbooked drilling locations are farther away from existing wells where Management has less information about the characteristics of the reservoir, and therefore there is more uncertainty whether wells will be drilled in such locations; and if drilled there is more uncertainty that such wells will result in additional oil and gas reserves or production.

The fundamentals haven’t changed, so the markets have softened; just more opportunity to buy the dip. It going to be a long term buy but give it a few years.

Interesting to have a briefing, I wonder if they think they will be able to announce a deal with NGC?

If numbers don't live up to expectations there could be risk, but they would have to be pretty bad to have risk to the downside over the long term. The plan is 245t/annum of SOP for about $200/t, and price at market $500/t. But production is likely to be significantly lower I suspect in the first year. They will get better at running the ponds, and the plant; and remember the ponds will deliver seasonally, and the plant will process that over the year, so cash will come in gradually.
The big money will come as they develop the 2nd and 3rd lake, learning from previous experience. As money comes in they will be able to re-finance to lower costs. Hopefully they will be able to borrow more to build other lakes but if they want to build more lakes, more quickly I wouldn't be surprised if there if there wasn't more raising to be done next year. But 3-4 years when they have 3-4 lakes running and maybe $200 million year of profits and still growing, I don't see a market cap of £150 million and a SP of 30p. This could be a 10 bagger but it will take time.

I have only just found this forum. I posted this on the TXP site. I picked up another £10K of North today.
For those looking at another way in to TXP there is still Northenergy asa, TXPs largest share holder. At the end of Q2 the percentage of NAV in TXP was 27%, but TXP has gone up since then but so has NE SP and NAV.
I calculate that NE is still sitting on a big discount to NAV. Market cap at end of Q2 was 61% of NAV, and it is now at 61% ( NE SP went from 1.4NOK to 1.9NOK but has dropped back to 1.7NOK.
The % of NAV in TXP I calculate at 31%. With the discount for every £1 in NE you get 50p exposure in TXP.
But NE has also announced a dividend policy of paying out 40-50% of net annual profit. It is already sitting on I estimate 105NOK of profit, so if it pays out 50% of this, that is about 25% of its current Market Cap. As nearly half of its NAV is in cash it can certainly afford to do this.
So you invest £1 in NE and in 7months you get paid a dividend of 25p. So then you have 50p of exposure for every 75p in NE.
A bigger payout if TXP goes up, with greater exposure.
And still exposure to NE at a discount, and its discounted cash pile. An interesting play.

I use AJ Bell for my SIPP, and you have to ring them up and pay a telephone dealing charge.

typo I calculate market cap at 62% of NAV, not 61% as posted, but essentially the same as end of Q2.
I have just bought some more NE for my SIPP..

For those looking at another way in to TXP there is still Northenergy asa, TXPs largest share holder. At the end of Q2 the percentage of NAV in TXP was 27%, but TXP has gone up since then but so has NE SP and NAV.
I calculate that NE is still sitting on a big discount to NAV. Market cap at end of Q2 was 61% of NAV, and it is now at 61% ( NE SP went from 1.4NOK to 1.9NOK but has dropped back to 1.7NOK.
The % of NAV in TXP I calculate at 31%. With the discount for every £1 in NE you get 50p exposure in TXP.
But NE has also announced a dividend policy of paying out 40-50% of net annual profit. It is already sitting on I estimate 105NOK of profit, so if it pays out 50% of this, that is about 25% of its current Market Cap. As nearly half of its NAV is in cash it can certainly afford to do this.
So you invest £1 in NE and in 7months you get paid a dividend of 25p. So then you have 50p of exposure for every 75p in NE.
A bigger payout if TXP goes up, with greater exposure.
And still exposure to NE at a discount, and its discounted cash pile. An interesting play.

I am in the same position, selling out of shares I have held for a decade to buy TXP. The only think that holds me back from buying more is that Chinook could come up dry and the SP will fall, so I can buy more for less. I have never been in this position with a share before.

The discount has always been an issue and sometimes it has been much wider. Have a look at the companies site.
I have always felt they should be prepared to buy back. It should help reduce discount (RSE have done this recently) but it should also improve performance. Pershing do buy back and are on a wider discount so it doesn’t always work as much as you may want, but presumably discount would be wider than if they hadn’t.
I think there was a belief that entering the FTSE 350 would help. I don’t think it’s helped the discount much but I think it’s helped with the spread.