Member Info for Tobin

A good day, and clearly the Canadian market taking TXP higher. You have to wonder why?

Whoops, quite right, you don’t perforate a drill pipe; but the casing. I was commenting more on when you get flaring. It’s part of testing unless you don’t have use for the NG and can not re-inject.

They will know from the drill muds if they have hit significant hydrocarbons. Flaring should only happen when they have perforated the drill pipe as part of a pressure test to see how well it drains. Long term flaring occurs in places were they have oil but no use for the gas. Flaring produces carbon dioxide but this is a much less of a greenhouse gas than methane. Obviously they are trying to avoid flaring, usually by reinjection but with testing of new well it still is the way it is done.

I agree. Unless something has gone wrong with the drill they should be well into the sands. They will be looking at the muds constantly. The fact that Mr Moonan has continued to find the time to pursue his, and the companies policy to have a presence on social media I think is indicative that he is in a relaxed frame of mind because they are seeing what they expect to see. If it was a total duster they would know by now and would have stopped drilling, made an announcement, and Mr Moonan would be spending his time going over the geology wondering how he had got it wrong.
All tends to be positive in my book, maybe I am just reading tea leaves, but I think I can smell a whiff of gas from here.

Ultimately I believe TXP is undervalued, which is why I have a large number of shares in it.
The spread is wide. This usually indicates a degree of price uncertainty; though this I believe is more in the short term. The reasons for this uncertainty are clear. If Chinook is dry there could well be a significant sell off; if it is not the price will soar.
For a long term holder aware of the imminent "wall of cash", and list of other possible targets that this cash can fund, a significant fall in price will just be a buying opportunity.
Warren Buffett quote, " The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient"

interesting, any links?

I agree with corpse, he is just showing his passion for his subject, his lectures and posts are just limited to informing of the geology, and correcting mistakes. He also posts very interesting posts about the mud volcanoes of Trinidad!.
I certainly feel better informed on the turbidite plays, and the potential size of resource they represent. I also am more aware that turbidite plays on land are really quite unusual, and the geology of Trinidad most complex. To better understand this is to allow better understanding of the upside and the risks. Most helpful. I also find it absolutely fascinating, and has certainly increased my knowledge and interest in geology!
I think there is a certain corporate conflict that we don't want him sharing to much info with the competition, but on the other hand it is clear that the geologists do discus and share their knowledge and insights quite freely with each other; and by doing so help to float all boats. Which is surely why most of us who post on BBs do so, we all win.

Xav!

Zav, while many of us have "butterflies" wondering if our investment decisions are correct, we are apt to forget sometimes that those who build and work in these companies have far more at stake. It is not possible to be right all the time, but I am sure even if Chinook isn't what we all hope for that you will learn from it and refine your models. I hope all your hard work pays off, I am sure will in the end . Wishing you and your family well, as I do for all on this BB. Regards.

Hi Xavmoon,
welcome to the TXP board and indeed LSE.
I look forward to your posts whoever you are!

He’s a bright chap!Some very complex geology. I understand better how you could miss oil/gas reserves, but I also understand why this is very much an exploration. Nothing is certain. Thanks.

Its a fascinating presentation. TXP are going to have to get some 3D seismic. I know they have to as part of their contract. Its in the pipeline of things to do, was going to cost about $4million I recall. Looks like it would be money well spent. Cascadura can not be the only play here.

I don't like butterflies, or going to bed worrying about an investment. Here we have clear evidence of great future cash flows that will ultimately support the price come what may. But also clear evidence of major upside. In my years of investing a rare beast. Though a bit like buses JLP, and SLP are IMO similar, but TXP is better with such short term potential for the upside. Sleep well.

Is it a full moon but a lot of the BB I follow seem to be on the angry side tonight?

Kore has a huge resource, and with DX project the possibility of getting it out with relatively low cost. It also has some serious long term share holders who have cash. This doesnt mean that PIs are going to get much of a look in, and may be diluted out IMO. But one to watch. I will not be taking much of a position until things are clearer.

Very quiet on the chat today, anyone any ideas where the analyst got the figures for chinook and cascadura deep?

It’s good to see these insiders with substantial positions buying in more. My question is why?
The discount has been there for a while. They have been sitting on a lot of cash, do you think they have found a target for this cash that is making these insiders want a bigger share of the cake?

Thanks Corpse, something that has been said on this BB many times.
I presume this is from the toronto stockhouse board? https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.txp/touchstone-exploration-inc?postid=31611139
Interesting that it looks like they are saying Chinook is prosective 200 Bcf, and cascadura is 500 Bcf, do we know where they are getting these figures from? Cascadura deep bigger than chinook?

Is it trouble in Zambia that is causing concern??
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-22/zambia-eurobonds-plunge-as-state-seeks-six-month-interest-freeze

They are hopefully seeing some hydrocarbons in the drill muds, but any proper assessment is going to take time. To get the hydrocarbons out requires the right sort of sands, and how much comes out will require the drill pipes to be perforated and pressure tests performed. The type of hydrocarbon and amount of hydrocarbon to water are also an important metrics. Ultimately this will all take time.