Member Info for Tobin

the directors talk interview, google "-further-confirms-the-geological-model-interview/412863768",
PB says at the end of the interview, talking of the NG contract, that it will be the biggest they sign and they are taking their time getting it right and... "that in reality it will be a couple of BILLION DOLLARS".

The Finncap report makes a good read. Still very conservative with no valuation of the other 21 targets, and superficial reading looks like TXP making a loss until next year and cash flow analysis only going out to the end of year 2021 when the wall of cash coming in the second half will starts exceeding in the costs of the exploration programme. Rarely has DYOR been more important!

DW I concur, back of envelope calc valuation is at least twice SP, but we have seen that independent confirmation of tested drills is important to push up SP and with testing being pushed to next year some PI will likely get bored, worried etc and will move on. The SP has slid a little to day but I can see the SP easing back over the next weeks and months. The dips will be buying opportunities.

IC can move shares but the last article was rather weak and didn’t. Maybe this one will bring a few more investors in who take the time to do the research and realise how under valued TXP still is following Cascadura. Chinook and all the other targets are all upside and now with 3 out of 3 exploration wells hitting the mark the upside is still huge. I fear too many are put off by seeing the large SP rise and think they have missed the boat. How wrong!

So Richard Sneller sells 0.17% of his share holding to be low the 3% level on the 23/9 and then buys them back on the 14/10, so sold at about 75p, and bought back at about 115p. Seems odd. Some tax thing, but for bed and breakfast needs 30 days, and didn't time it very well did he?
Or was something in the offing where he wanted to be below the 3% level?
He is a very bright fellow, I don't think he would have don't this for no reason, and certainly not because he felt anxious ahead of chinook?

I was hoping for a bit of a pull back before the Canadians arrive. I suspect it is last chance to buy below 120p. Though it only seems yesterday I was was buying at 20p+.

Hi 55018,
yes following you over from SO4 was definitely one of my better decisions! I owe you a pint or two that's for sure! And as you say, more to come.
Any other investment tips???

I have doubled my holding in North today, £10k so far less than my direct holding in TXP; but I will keep an eye on it and maybe invest more providing they dont sell TXP! I am hoping they will not; the TXP is now held at zero cost on their books.

They clearly shouldn't have sold, but it probably helped me buy TXP at a lower price.
Still 2/3rds of Norths SP is covered by their current holding in TXP.
More than half of their SP is covered in Cash, unless they have actually invested some of that cash pile.
If they pay out half the current profits from TXP and reach subsea then half of that cash pile will be returned to investors. Its an interesting play.

North energy is up 10% on the day. Not suprising that 27% of its NAV holding is in TXP it was and maybe still is TXP largest shareholder. It may sell some, it did before; but reading the last financial report that didnt seem to be in their play book. They had sold down so that TXP was effectively a free holding.
But the 27% was end of quarter when SP of TXP was 53p. Their other holding is Reach subsea that is also up 50% from end of June.
The share price was 1.4NOK end of June, just 61% of NAV. They are at 1.95NOK to buy today, so will be still at a huge discount to NAV,
Al the rest was in cash, and they have said they will return maybe 50% of profits this year to investors. Not quite a geared play on TXP, for that you can use spread bet, like IG index; but a significant play on TXP at a discount. DYOR

We dont know how big Chinook will be, but it looks big. Maybe more significantly this is 3 out of 3. Their model clearly holds water (or gas!). They will also learn from this, and will get better and better as they look to the other 20+ targets, and by the sounds of it they are finding more more targets as they drill more. Present price and them some is covered by Cascadura. Chinook with 1TCF could be £2 on its own. £5 looks a reasonable price. DYOR

But still can squeeze a little top up in today, or on any pull back, happy days.

Hi DW,
no one flys much theses days!
Just seen over on advfn that touchstone have a presentation on the 22nd of October. Hopefully to talk about the good news they are about to release??
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/register/event_details/286#

It’s a great company, but often had an issue with discount. It did actually buy back a few years ago but never very heavily.

Few children achieve their fathers dreams, but there is always hope

Hi NCB, I am a shareholder in north, for its position in TXP, and it’s large discount.
There is a BB for north if you can tell us a little more maybe what you think their plans are for that cash. A buy back or divided??
But it’s not north selling.

finishing up at 1.45, or 85p, rather different to London finishing down at 81p, we will see what tomorrow brings.

So spud 13th, and PB was talking of end of September, 45days, the reference to 2weeks lee way was PB indicting that with covid and the wet season that is could take a couple of weeks longer. And so it seems.
I still think that if it was a duster then we would have heard by now.
Going back to the September 2018 presentation PB did say that part of the reason that wells drilled back in the 50s and 60s didn't deliver was that he thought that some of these plays would need to be fracked, technology that wasnt available back then.
It may well be that we don't get the big pressures that we saw with Cascadua, and that it may take sometime to see the true potential for sometime even if successful.

There was a very good presentation by PB on the turbidite geology and applying the previous well records. It was September 2018, oil capital conference. They had got the logs of drilling in the 1950s and 60s 6months before and had been looking at the logs, digitising them and applying them to the seismic. This is the presentation that I recall of where PB was bringing it all together.
12 minutes on https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFze8StRIg8

Re te PB interview, my reading of this was that the 2weeks lee way was reference back to Andrew Scotts question of whether the well would be finished by mid September ? and PB said it would take 45days and with covid; etc that people would have to give them 2weeks lee way, hence the end of September.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDbgUGEEBIQ 20/7 PB said he hoped spud end of July and a 38days and complete first week of September but then he said on the next video that the spud was a couple of weeks later than he expected. So do we actually have a firm spud date?