Member Info for Tobin

Thanks for the thoughts. There are some interesting companies on this list, I I can see great potential in all of them, and varying levels of risk. Better time spent than reading Investors Chronicle!
I still like TXP best. Clearly undervalued from what we have, funding and cash flow to deliver rapid growth. Just so much to like. But at some point I will have to diversify.

Tx 55018, worth a look!

I found my way to TXP when 55018 posted on another board (Salt Lake Potash) that though he liked that share TXP was better. I followed his advise and I have no regrets.
As we maybe going into a quiet period ( Though I think trading on Monday could be interesting for lots of reasons), does anyone have a company that they are following that may beat TXP?
I haven't one, I think JLP is going to continue to do well, and i think Salt lake potash may well do well from its current SP.
It may be not a suprise but I am looking at companies assets, even if potential assets if well based, vs Market value. "Tobin's Q."

Liquids probably going to add about 20%.
The other way to look at this is that PB said Coho with 10mcf/d would deliver $500k/month "free cash flow". He said this in an interview a few weeks ago, and it is clear he had knew what the pricing was going to be. So 90mcf/d would be about $55million/year. but when at 10wells at chinook/cascadura free cash flow will be $250m/yr. But costs of drilling wells, $5million each, corporate costs etc.
Still lots of upside. £5 in 2years, £10 in 3-4yrs.

As others have posted, this doesn't include the fact that there will be a lot more wells ultimately draining these reservoirs. We are probably looking at 8-10 within a couple of years. Each producing 40-50MMCfd/day. More if Royston or Cascadura deep come in. A million $/day.
What we really need is to have 2 rigs. One for development, and a second to exploration. This will require a lot of $$, and the big cash flow is not until Q4 next year.
PB doesn't like to borrow to explore, he thinks it is bad luck; but he could borrow for the development wells.
With the NGC deal in the bag I suspect he will be looking to have discussions with the T+T bank to borrow more to do just this.

I estimate $200k/day gas, but another $50k/day for the liquids. $250k/day, $90 million/year, but this is of just 2 Cascadura wells. Full production will be 10-12 Cascadura wells, and more if Cascadura deep, Royston et.
But $1million/day in 2022, Apply your own NPV; but SP is going to be multiples of where we are now.

Clear indication by PB that the price is $2.50/bcf. And that is well head price. It is better than I was expecting. Just topped up.

this links to dec 4th update. Is there a newer one?

Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.
I have usually gone for Investment trust, diversified. But usually I have done well with ITs with good record and wide discounts. TXP is still sitting on huge discount to future cash flows. This is why it is low risk with a huge upside. It is a rare beast.

Xav has posted on Twitter about the 3D seismic plan. Interesting map showing historic wells.

I conservatively put down an end of year price of 115p, essentially I though there would be delays as we have seen before and we wouldn't have something to move price before EOY. The hiccough of a "failed" drill brought early news of a huge new target that I wasn't expecting, and not in December.
What do folks think is the 2year, end of 2022 likely target (if we do or don't get bought out).
My view is £3-4, lets say £3.50p/share.
Obviously I was the most conservative poster last time, and am looking at eating humble pie so not meant to be a ramp, or deramp. DYOR etc. ??

Sorry, wrong forum! Thought it was TXP.
JLP 30-40p.

£3-4/share. but note I was the most conservative poster when asked for my end of year prediction, did I really say 115p? DYOR

Capital gains can be a real pain, you can gradually sell over a period of years if you need to. Fortunately this is a company that you want to be into for years.
The problem then is that if the SP keeps rising you still have the capital gains issue. I have the same issue with PIN.
Its a first world problem for sure, its not something your going to lose sleep over!

Looking at the video PB seemed quite relaxed about the negotiations with NGC, in fact it sounded like they were essentially complete bar sign off from the boards.
He even went as far as indicating the likely free cash flow from coho; and I don't think he would have done that without having a great degree of certainty of what the price was going to be.
I suspect that some delay is likely to be because of the negotiations with Methanex, who have a large methanol plant, I believe standing idle; and their existing contract finishes end of January.

Finncap model remains very conservative.
The latest cascadura deep adds probably 3-4 wells, each should deliver 40-50mcf/day. Conservative is 100mcf/d, $70million a year.
With a conservative NPV4, that is still £1/share, and we have added 12p since the news?!
Even bigger bargain than it was last week.

Welcome back tradeemup, I see that 6mths ago you were looking at £1 by next March, my prediction was 115p by year end. I am please to say it looks like we are both going to be wrong. Please ignore my predictions.

Takes from the interview.
Coho $500K/ mth of free cash flow, for 10mcf/d, so around $2/mcf of gas; which is what we are looking at for the NCG deal.
3 wells chinook, cascadua x2 delivering 75mcf-100mcf, so about $50-60million/yr
Also 6-8wells on cascadura, and 4-6 on chinook ( not tested but PB seems without doubt) Say 12
So $200-$250m/yr.
A conservative NPV of x4, discounting Royston and 20 other targets, then we are looking at a $1billion company. £4-5 share.
Providing the wider economy doesnt cash (just listening to Harry Dent)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6Xoown-P54

Xav is back on Twitter, and seems very happy. "4 from 4", says it all really. https://twitter.com/moonxav?lang=en
Every time they drill they find gas, and more gas than they expect, and in more zones.

It looks like there may be a typo " for the period from January 1, 2020 to January 31, 2020. " It looks like the agreement with Methanex is to 31/1/21.
This is a post on the stockhouse site in canada.
"Methanex interim supply deal for Titan operations end on Jan.31st with NGC . Probably why negotiations with TXP and NGC are more complicated and taking longer than expected. Hopefully a deal can be struck to make all parties happy. Covid has destroyed methanol demand but is expected to rebound within the next couple of years making these contracts more critical either way. One wonders if TXPs discoveries has anything to do with Methanex sudden stock rise.GLTA and hope we have good news on this front soon."

So this maybe a complication why an agreement is taking longer than expected.