Member Info for Tobin

This is all very interesting when we recall that methanex, the worlds largest producer of methanol in the world idled one of its 2 plants, titan, only a couple of weeks ago; sending home 60workers because it couldnt come to an agreement with NGC on a gas price contract.
https://www.guardian.co.tt/business/methanex-to-send-home-60-workers-cant-reach-gas-deal-with-ngc-6.2.1273094.246afa73eb
I suspect they are trying to play hard ball with NGC; they have spent $300million on an upgrade to Titan, capacity 875,000 tons/year.

We know PB believes that these wells will be like Carapal Ridge. Initially Casc and Chinook 40-50mmcfd, hence at the end of 2021 (with Coho) 100mmcfd.
But the pressures will drop off quite quickly and then more slowly. Initial Carapal Ridge well was 50mmcfd initially and 20mmcfd at 5years.
We know PB is talking of 8 wells on each, and will be planning to fill those pipelines that can handle 250,000mmcfd.
So 3-4wells initially and then an extra well each year. That will be the limiting factor unless they find more gas and but in more pipelines etc.
Certainly 250,000mmcf/d from both cascadura and chinook over the 5 years 2022-2027, and then decreasing to 160,000cfd by 2030ish. Then more slow decline over the next 10-15years+ years.
But then there is Cacadura deep zone still and ? the interconnection with chinook etc etc.

I think the difference in the flow rates/well is the initial rates vs long term flow rates. NGC are not putting in 2 pipelines that can handle 250mmcf/d each if they don't think they are going to fill them at some point.
So this all sounds like Carapal ridge 50mmcfd initially in 2001 and 20mmcf at 5years, and still producing.
https://www.hydracapital.ca/2020/03/11/touchstones-second-cascadura-test-delivers-another-beast-like-rate-of-5500-boepd/
https://www.ogj.com/exploration-development/area-drilling/article/17280106/trinidad-and-tobago

More wells and less gas/well than I think I was estimating. But PB maybe talking about long term rates, initial flow rates can be much higher. He seems to be talking of 100mcf/d at end of year with coho and 2wells.
But the average 20mcf/d/well and 16wells at casc/chinook
Seems very sure about Royston.

HighlandMatt: I agree with your post, and re copied below.

But you missed the prospects of Cascadura Deep, and the Casc/chinook deep connection, and probably 20 other targets that they have identified.
And whenever they drill they seem to find more targets.
Maybe 9TCF in total, $20billion+. So market cap maybe less than 2% of the total $ that maybe ultimately delivered from Ortoire.

“The numbers here are massive15 Jan 2021 16:17
I'm still digesting this, and pinching myself.
Cascadura will have another 4 wells added, to fill the 20" pipe at 250mcf/d. If Coho at 10-12mcf/d = $6m pa, then this pipe will run at 20x that = $120m per annum. Do we keep all of that, or does Heritage get some? (although Coho is quoted as 'net to TXP'. Let's call it $100
Chinook is being specced the same, 20" pipe. Another $100m per annum.
Even without the liquids, we are looking $200m net profit per annum, which on a 10x multiple gives $2bn or £1.5bn. Greater than 4x the current mcap, which would gives £6.60/share. Accurately using 209m shares equals £7.17 a share.
Without Royston, without Kraken.”

Chance of a pull back so I can top up more? Great!

I honestly don't think you should be looking for the next TXP, TXP may not 10 bag in the next year or so like it has just done but it could easily 2-3bag with very, very little risk of down side. There will be ones with the potential of doing better but most will go no where and many will go crash.

Sorry if this has been posted but looking at methanex, largest producer of methanol in the world and has 2 large plants on T+T; it announced a couple of days ago that it was sending 60 staff home from one of its plants as it hasn't come to an agreement with NGC over long term gas contract.
https://www.methanex.com/news/methanex-provides-update-trinidad-operations

So I was wondering what sort of NG price would they be looking for, and found it in their own presentations (page 15)
https://www.methanex.com/sites/default/files/investor/MEOH-Presentation-2019-03-04.pdf (page 14)
Essentially with $/mmbtu ( mmbtu is approx equivalent to an mcf of NG) of $3/mmbtu and methanol price of $400/done their IRR is 13%.
It looks clear that this is a comfortable price for them.
Not clear why they have not agreed terms with NGC. I presume they know the price that NGC will be paying for TXP for gas. I guess they are trying to play hardball but at the end of this I can not see that they will walk away when it has just spent $300million on an upgrade.
https://www.guardian.co.tt/business/methanex-to-send-home-60-workers-cant-reach-gas-deal-with-ngc-6.2.1273094.246afa73eb

Not quite, natural gas liquids are ethane, butane, propane and alkenes, and are gases at STP, but are liquids under some pressure. Pentane is a liquid just but boils at 36C.
But easily transported, and valuable. Alkenes particularly useful for chemical industry

Hi Emig,
I found my way here from another BB (Salt lake potash) following post on there by 55018 (Many, many thanks!), having found may way there from Sirius ( fortunately getting out with a small loss but a lot of experience).
TXP still has so much upside, don't sell out, don't even take out your stake. This share has arguably a better risk profile now than it has ever had because the possibility of down side is essentially zero.

But re share Tips, I asked a similar question a few weeks back and received some excellent suggestions; however there is so little downside risk with TXP I am happy to have a very large investment in it and just wait.

Im thinking somewhere on T+T!

And still massively undervalued.

This is similar to my estimates derived from comments by PB
“PB has said 4-6wells at Cascadura and upto 8wells at chinook. 3rd Dec interview. But before Xmas he said of the deal multi billion over next 20years.
The carapal ridge is still pumping out gas 16-17years now.
So 10wells 40 mcf/d 400mcf/d which is what Trinidad industry is short of. That’s a TCF in 6years.
So probably 2-3tcf in total over a couple of decades. More if gas in the deep casc target. Royston, 21 other targets and your looking at the 9tcf that has been mentioned across the block.”

I will put his tweet reply below.
He is clearly listing those things that will hopefully move the SP north.
“seismic, Royston drill and test, licence extension”
They need to do Royston and seismic to get the licence extension, getting the licence extension should be straight forward after the NGC deal but will still likely help SP.
“I dont think the SP reflects the Chinook and Cas Deep discoveries. So with news from Chinook test, Cas Deep test, Coho production, seismic, Royston drill and test, licence extension, CAS, CHIN & CAS Deep on production and then maybe another exploration well..im sure its possible”

2020, a memorable year; unfortunately for the wrong reasons. Financially the best ever year, thanks to TXP. Yin Yang. Hopefully 2021 will be as rewarding. I will be seeing in the new year with a glass of Kraken for sure.

Dr Krishna Persad, ex-president of Geological Society of T+T, said on facebook 8/11/20
"I want to point to the Ortoire Basin where Touchstone has already found nearly one TCF of gas and the expectation is for lots more..up to 9 TCF perhaps."
https://www.facebook.com/krishnamohan.persad/posts/812892602877035

When questioned on this he said
"From personal communication that I cannot divulge...but look at Touchstone's latest releases I believe Paul Baay may have give some numbers"
PB hasn’t said this. The personal source? We know he is friends with Xav Moonan, and Xav did “like” his comment.
And we know from this board that Xav will correct comments on social media if it is wrong...
9TCF is a clear possibility.

PB has said 4-6wells at Cascadura and upto 8wells at chinook. 3rd Dec interview. But before Xmas he said of the deal multi billion over next 20years.
The carapal ridge is still pumping out gas 16-17years now.
So 10wells 40 mcf/d 400mcf/d which is what Trinidad industry is short of. That’s a TCF in 6years.
So probably 2-3tcf in total over a couple of decades. More if gas in the deep casc target. Royston, 21 other targets and your looking at the 9tcf that has been mentioned across the block.

I was rather worried my 115p EOY prediction was going to win.

Just 2 of the wells drilled will deliver more than £56 million/year. In a couple of years there will be probably 10, even if no more gas is found in Cascadura deep, Royston or any of the 21 other targets. On these the production costs will be minimal, there picked up by NGC under the contract. New wells about $5million each.
So far they are 4 out of 4, the geological model they are using is clearly working and they are likely to get better and better at recognising what is a good target and what will could be a dry well.
Hope that helps, DYOR.