Member Info for Tobin

Thanks Bully, so IG out of the market, and it looked like Spreadex too. That’s a shame. I don’t usually gear but TXP is such a rare opportunity.

I struggled to set up a DMA with IG, probably my technical incompetance. Did you find it useful?
DMA will be for shares; this was spread bet. I believe that IG go to the market and do not take a position themselves.
If you have DMA, is it showing anything interesting?

London. But it is also Spreadex.

I have tried to open positions on IG and Spreadex and both will only take orders to close.
I have not seen this before, and had my order limited on spreadex yesterday.
Anyone got access to Level 2 data?

PB indicated that he felt cascadura was similar to Carapal ridge, and Chinook and Cascadura deep also sound similar in that he has indicated he feels they will need a similar number of wells to drain each resource. Carapal ridge estimated 0.5TCF of gas what is usually mentioned. So probably 1.5-2TCF so far. There has to be more on the block; question is how much more?
Over 20 targets to go at. Many will be smaller, some larger.
9TCF as some have suggested? Probably not but 4-5TCF very probably.
The only way to find out is to drill, but at $5million/drill even to drill all 20+ isnt actually very much compared to the upside.

Pipeline for coho is ultimately small beer; much of the delay sounds like its from the government side in that they havent put in a pipeline onshore for 20years. Hopefully it makes the pipelines to Casc and Chinook that much easier and quicker. Gas/cash flow there is 10-20 times more and delay there will slow down the growth of our wealth.

Speculater, interesting, do you have a link?
The 8" pipeline seems rather small, and rather expensive. TT$58million for 2km??

Casc deep was drilled but didnt reach its deep target, only an "intermediate" target, and that is what is being tested now (hopefully)

Bully: the best estimates we have are from the number of wells that PB has indicated will be needed. 4-6 at chinook and 4-6 at casc , and 4-6 at casc deep, which I would call casc intermediate.
We should be aware that things do not always work out thou. BPC have announced in the last few days that they have found hydrocarbon but not enough to be commercial, and look at their SP. They have a number of fields in T+T, but this was there Perseverance well of shore in the Bahamas.
Proselenes called it right. It is worth looking at his posts. Hard to be conservative on some of these boaards.

This project has been driven by interpretation of the geology ( old seismic and well data). New seismic will be available April, it will be interesting to see how that alters the story.

Lack of news flow and to give you the chance to top up at lower prices.

Looks attractive if they can keep doing what they have been doing.
£28million gross profits, tripled in 3 years. The valuation looks reasonable.
Market Cap £156million, with phttps://investors.supreme.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Supreme-PLC-Admission-Document-27-Jan-2021.pdf
I have just filled my Vape with 88Vape Nic Salt Menthol, good product but needs more menthol ( topped up with 3 drops of menthol oil)
Will I be buying? Not yet. TXP is just to good an investment; but I will be watching.

At these quite times when we are all waiting I usually ask if there is anything else that members of the board think could be better.
I reason I like TXP is that I don't see a down side so I am happy to put a lot of my free net worth in this one share share, which is very, very rare. In that way it is different from that potential 10-20 bagger that you wouldn't put more than 5-10% of your portfolio into.
BUT do members see any down side risks? Gas well explosions, political risks, meteorites, global pandemics??

There again it maybe 1500hp, see company history; purchased in 2010. Or was it upgraded? Anyway its the biggest rig.
http://wellservicespetroleum.com/about-well-services/company-history/

Actually may be 4500hp, it looks significantly bigger than other rigs.
https://wellservicespetroleum.com/land-operations/

I believe there is only one rig on the island that can drill reliably to these depths, WSPCL Rig 60, and RB said in an interview this is the one that will be used. Capable of 16000ft, with 1500hp. Other rigs used before have struggled even with top drives and synthetic muds.

Thanks Praiser, I posted on this last week (and the week before). They are short of gas for industry on T+T, PB has said they need about 400mmfd. Methanex will be keen to get their plant running again, they spent $300 million on an upgrade. https://www.guardian.co.tt/business/methanex-to-send-home-60-workers-cant-reach-gas-deal-with-ngc-6.2.1273094.246afa73eb
NGC will want to do a deal; money and jobs at stake.
The price of the NGC contract with TXP should be OK with Methanex; https://www.methanex.com/sites/default/files/investor/MEOH-Presentation-2019-03-04.pdf (Page 15)
But before NGC sign any deals they are probably waiting for the testing of Cascadura Deep, and Chinook so they know they have the gas to sell. Aren't we all?!

As I get older, I am more and more old school.
Peter Lynch "time in the market, not timing the market"
or Warren Buffet, "price is what you pay, value is what you get". The price of TXP is less than it was a few days ago, great, buy more.

I think the issue comes down to risk. Most potential 10 baggers could also go to zero.
TXP is different. It is unlikely to 10 bag again in the next year or so (IMO but yes I did have the lowest EOY valuation), but it could 2-3 bag; AND it is very unlikely to go down significantly at this valuation. The valuation is well covered from what we know.
So most potential 10baggers you are not going to bet your house on. Maybe 10-15% of your portfolio, because making up substantial losses is very hard to do.
But with TXP you can bet the house and still sleep at night; or I can. DYOR.

Methanol plants need a fair amount of natural gas. Plants the size of Titan, or Mitsubishi plant will need approx 80mmcf/d.

https://petrowiki.spe.org/Gas_to_methanol#:~:text=The%20typical%20gas%20consumption%20for,157%20MMscf%2FD%20of%20gas.