Member Info for tidd83

Nice stake building nevo you did well to take that much without budging the price, may have absorbed most of the slack..

Nevo your trades post 15:30 have yet to appear, have they been filled?

In the Shareholders group, the top 10 documented holders have taken 17m off the market alone.. There are 115 members currently documented and that excludes institutions and BOD holdings so yep, free float is tightening up.

Times ahead here. I think we should shortly hear something about the expected program of wells.. plenty of drills and recompletions to come in. Personally expecting circa 2500bopd. What’s our MCAP again?

Not sure on that point or why you got the response, was that from Jessica or the stand in? Perhaps they were unsure of the question and, since it was not in the public domain at the time gave a typical response? Can’t speak for them personally but not something I’d be losing sleep over.

Make sure you register your vote.

Adouble id hazard a guess at CGG Robertson, would make sense since they have carried out previous CPR. As for the breaching of trap-seals this was relevant to historic operators and exploration (even prior to CNPC). Since 3D seismic was introduced to Agadem primarily by CNPC they have been able to closely identify what had been missed historically hence why the success rate dramatically increased on all of their recent exploration programs.

Just to add to that production piece.. “not initially”. As pointed out before, SHG never produced a thing yet valued at circa $1.1bn on takeover with a competitive market. With the only reserves online and a potential premium to gas sale price, the demand here should be much higher hence why the end result theoretically will be better. Production imho is a bonus, it’s the reserve base that will do the talking.

Changi for the most part you are right however the production aspect is merely a means to an end. It’s the reserves that will be the catalyst for major SH wealth here, the production will work along side it but it is not where the substantial value will come from.

Kenner, if you are onboard well done. Almost 2018 let’s cut the BS next year and discuss the company. Certainly an exciting first quarter ahead.

Hi Zippy a rough guide to follow would be 1bcf = 10mw per annum. The reserves and resources should increase (significantly imho) off the latest Work program and should continue to increase further as more wells come online. Currently reserves are 3.9bcf 2P / 261bcf 3P and contingent resources totalling 3300bcf 3C on just two of the ten claims.

I think once it’s been proven (hence the pilot scheme) you’ll see government excercising their rights to earn in. In regards help, whilst it was equity based the Botswanan Officers pension fund speaks volumes in regards to initial belief and backing. Couple that with mentions of Botswanan debt based lending - things are moving in the right direction.

“That is the current headline - likely to be well received in Govt circles or have them scratching their heads wondering whether CBM industry is a future player. Sort of ‘so little after so long’.“ I absolutely disagree with this point and I think it is rather naive to even raise it. A new industry for energy generation will not happen over night. Tlou are a small cap business who now are at the point of transforming the countries entire energy sector with the ability to save millions if not billions of dollars over the long term by disrupting an expensive and unclean source of energy from both import and diesel. Such a move takes time no matter who is involved. If you review a number of majors who target wildcat exploration plays be it Oil/Gas in untapped and unresearched areas around the world - a single drill to target a reservoir can take many years following countless studies, approvals and blocks of legislation. A genuine question to you for such a point, how long do you think it took to get the North Sea producing and prior to such, do you imagine E&P companies and governments thought it was worthwhile if they knew it would take years to achieve? An attitude that a new economy is not worth bothering with because it will take time wouldn’t have gotten Botswana to be one of the worlds largest diamond producers today and I don’t believe one member of government would even consider the point you have just raised.

Changi we have been over this before, many times but yes. 10mw, 50mw, 100mw would be my guess on a scaled approach. It does not matter when the power comes to market, as long as the goal is reached and in a methodical sensibly risked approach for a new energy source. An RFP with the potential to upscale is what matters here. If Tlou can even prove the model with an initial 2mw and onto 10mw that could be enough to entice a major farm in or TO. The key to this project is the Reserves, with a route to market and a large reserve base the company just need to go through the motions of scaling up, the Reserves will do the talking imho. As stated previously, Tony is bringing the same model to Tlou as he did with Sunshine Gas. If that is true then there won’t be a need to produce much beyond an initial pilot that can be left to a major should they come in. If the reserves base grows the company Value will grow exponentially anyway. If that occurs and no major approaches then the production aspect will naturally increase as additional wells come online.

Reggie discoveries have been made in the neighbouring blocks of Niger by CNPC with recently a 75% COS. Savannah plan to drill the same type of targets as CNPC, identified by 3D seismic. Multi horizon wells so stacked targets. Look at the way the blocks are split across the basin, if CNPC can hit oil there is no reason why Savannah using the same methodology won’t either.

Shares by hejhog, good for new comers to read: http://resourceglobalnetwork.com/portfolio_page/tlou-energy-2/

Whilst there is always risk with any investment you have to look at what stacks up in the favour of Tlou not just in regards their position as leader in the sector but also elsewhere with awards and permits. To be granted a ML alone off the proposal speaks volumes, you then also have plenty of media spotlight, government upgrades (off their own backs) - Tlou only submitted for 10mw initially, government saw fit to increase to 100mw and the minister included it into the countries energy mix going forward. You have the pension fund positioning etc. whilst nothing is certain until agreed it certainly looks more on the favourable side. No harm in waiting for firm confirmation but this is why some accept a margin of risk and pickup at a bigger mark down.

Changi, it depends when the PPA comes in - that will be dependent for the subsequent upgrade. Your timings could be right however as previously stated, should the government announce an award and agree to the terms of the proposal there may be minimum to no negotiations and the PPA could be concluded very quickly. My thought process will be reserve upgrade based on completed cores and seismics (plus additional information from already producing wells, POC etc). Then news on the PPA or Mamba following an additional upgrade capturing these additional factors such as agreed unit cost and core information. The second upgrade could theoretically be as big if not more than the first.

http://www.weekendpost.co.bw/wp-news-details.php?nid=4646

Here we come. I think the first quarter is going to certainly exciting for Tlou. Great end to the year and much much more to come, have a good new year all.