RE: Quarterly Reports23 Jan 2018 08:28
Caposoka welcome, in regards KMR your resident clown had a clear vendetta against the Company. He’s since been banned here for posting lies and misleading statements only to carry on his little sad campaign on Hot Copper, ADVFN and also Twitter. I think there is something seriously wrong to go to such an extent but I’m sure if he continues he’ll get his commupance.
Regardless, back to Tlou.
“Exploration costs will fall thereafter so TLOU have sufficient cash for the year with debt (all good).”
Just to clarify this point, Tlou currently have no debt.
“What does TLOU if it fails to win any part of the 100MW tender (unlikely but only to ask).”
If in the remote chance this was to occur then there are other options to be tabled, offtakes external of Bots via the SAPP, CNG/LNG options countrywide from mines to hospitals to schools to Business etc. most run on diesel gensets and/or solar - the diesel can easily be displaced and there is a large market.
Pipeline of gas sales could be reviewed, plenty of options but the quickest and most likely route will be via the RFP.
“Once reserves upgraded, some form of tender award achieved, how long until first gas / revenue.”
Reserve upgrades alone will underline the inherent value of the company so not to be brushed over, revenues however are expected 2019 with financing and development to begin this year.
“Once reserves upgraded, some form of tender award achieved, TLOU will require additional funding. (I presume this will be debt based project funding from infrastructure / investment funds and not dilution.”
Correct, debt based funding has been mentioned or the ability to later farm out some of the License areas, there may be a portion of equity based raised but likely to be done at institutional level much like in the way of the pension fund. This has been discussed on interview and appears in principle to be in place ready for PPA award.
“Does anyone have a feel for how such a deal may be structured). If 2MW or 5MW is awarded as a start (to be scaled up later), how much revenue is generated per MW and/or how much production is required to cover the AUD 3-4M p.a. running cost of the company. i.e. what scale is needed to reach cash breakeven. (Of course, by this stage there will be financing costs to consider which are not yet known)”
Depends on financing agreement as you stated, also a few other factors to consider but fag packet calcs were around $1-1.5m per MW per annum revenue. This will be dependant on final Negotiations but it falls inline with a mid case price when considered against coal, diesel and import.