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Short term movements are irrelevant, the company are moving forward at an accelerated rate. All the approvals are in place so no more red tape and with the cashflow to effectively forge their own destiny. Any enviable position.
I really don’t believe the supposition and theories posted below but each to their own. Let’s agree to disagree.
Given PB has aspirations to move the company to a mid cap FTSE250 entrant, I don’t think we need to be looking at manipulation on their part.
Wider market movements and a large seller are two contributing factors to the range bound movements.
Not sure I agree on that theory Geld.
TXP are rapidly progressing on all fronts, there will be a day (as with most stocks) where people will trip over themselves to get in despite the fact they have opportunity now.
A seller is pegging the price imho but when momentum kicks in, the shares will re-rate and quickly.
Absurd discount applied today on excellent news.
I’ve taken the opportunity to add to my holding.
I note PANR rallied yesterday adding circa £100m to its MCAP based on a remodelled desktop study with not even a drill bit turning.
TXP producing and a further two successful development wells into an ever growing proven resource and the SP falls.
Perhaps North selling into any news and/or volume. The results are great, two more development wells successfully drilled and awaiting tie in.
Rather they are speculating to accumulate and using cash flows to expand the resource and grow production than sitting on it or offering it to SHs as dividends. The aspect of TXP is most certainly growth. The right approach imho
Another solid result at Cascadura with Cas3 encountering a substantial sand layer whilst crossing the fault. Results to date are more than we could have hoped, the structure is huge and the delineation wells may even be more optimally placed for increased production.
Better than expected results at Coora with a second well currently being drilled.
Optimisation of deep appears to have offered little success but something that could be remediated later I believe. Sidetrack and or tapped off another drill with the lessons learnt and a more appropriate heavy consistency. I think optimisations now complete and a reduction in shut in periods going foreward should likely bring the average back up. We already know of a number of days the well was offline whilst the work was carried out.
Overall solid results, things are moving fast here - I still stand by year end production figures of +16k boepd. The RNS has certainly been conservatively written given the excellent results, is this in part being tempered until asset sign off is complete? That’s my thoughts.
This should be well received.
IMHO the only thing currently pegging the SP is North exiting their position perhaps as part of a portfolio re-org.
That whilst to some frustrating in itself presents an opportunity to build a sizeable position without having to chase the bid.
KS.
Current production prior to optimisation from Cascadura is around 37mmcfd.
Assuming Cas3 comes in and they subsequently move to Cas4, at a stabilised and conservation rate of 20mmcfd per well that’s 60mmcfd additional before moving to Pad B.
60+37=97mmcfd (circa 17k boepd) hence why I said 16k+ to further play it down.
And a fantastic interview.
Nice to hear Cas2 blew them out the well with such excessive gas pressures.
Cas3 drill results should come soon then potential for Cas4 and onto B pad?
I still think 14k boepd will be conservative, I’m expecting 16k+
Supersport, good morning.
Apologies for the delayed response, I am only just catching back up with recent posts. You are indeed correct and have a good memory.
Still hold all my original stock and have added more over the years. Heinsite is a wonderful thing and perhaps should have taken some profits on the big ride up but I won’t lie nor proclaim to be Warren Buffet. There was a reason I didn’t sell and the reason very much remains. The assets TXP are sat on and the resultant production will in time command a much higher SP than the previous highs and that is the reason why I am patient.
TXP is one of the few AIM companies who actually deliver. It isn’t a lifestyle company and over the years have delivered. I take my hat off to PB and the team, to turn a microcap to a small cap with potential to move to mid cap in the near term is a huge achievement.
Production since inception is circa 800% higher with the potential to double again in the next 6 months. With facilities designed to take 40k+ boepd a day and a huge acreage position with 229 exploration targets still to drill (on top of development) the company has huge potential to grow all funded from cash flows.
With all permits in place, gas contract completed, facilitates built and 100% owned, strong free cash flow and a huge portion of land with potential coming out of their ears it’s a rare find. The market hasn’t moved yet but as things stand TXP is due a significant move up in SP.
The debt facility is an advance of future revenues and allows for the fast tracking of development. Carried by sensible debt provided by banks as opposed to equity.
As cashflow increases from expedited development then debt will reduce and future exploration and development will be funded from cash alone.
As for the sidetrack, a nice problem to have - they sidetracked Cas1 due to excessive gas pressures. They didn’t lose control of the well and the extent of the reservoir has been increased massively.
Cas3 spud and Coora drilling too - two bits turning at once whilst the ground works are done to massively increase production to circa double again. I’d expect to see 15-17k boepd by year end.
Given TXP we’re initially hopeful for achieving 5k by slow growth we are already double that and due to double again near term excluding all other exploration actitivities.
If the Cretaceous drills were to deliver then all bets are off as to where this could go.. it would dwarf all discoveries to date by some magnitude.
Not sure if this is visible to all but worth a try;
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/905365337682358302/1209112290700304384/IMG_8856.jpg?ex=65e5bc92&is=65d34792&hm=8c1f85ee104a1eeecc522d737f4980cf9c35efe478363844f28d99793cbdda51&
Plenty of progress being made on all fronts and looks like good in-roads being made on the flow line from Cas C.
Increased choke size, additional perfs at deep and 2 wells with a potential third being drilled at Cas C could see production increase beyond the forecast 16k boepd - yet almost doubling again.
Having read Discord a standout point made by Kalleklovn reads;
“Q4 22 vs Q4 23. 2229 BOE/d to 8500 BOE/d Production is up 281 %”
With that in mind, Q24 could see a doubling again and yet current share price is circa 33% less right now than it was in Q4 22.
200+ drill targets - ahead of any land expansion, they are asset rich.
Cas and coho just two strings of the bow.
Kraken, a whole different beast - Massive Suriname size exploration at a fraction of the drill cost.
Not a fan of Zak Mir, regardless of technicals 66p is a very low target given what we know to date and the success with the drill bit again on todays news.
The company are pregnant with a portfolio of drilling prospects mixed with development and exploration and with imminent news on acreage expansion this portfolio is set to grow significantly.
The company are self funded to drill and throwing off quantities of cash which is increasing over time, all facilities are owned they are masters of their own destiny - an enviable place to be in. At these prices they risk being snapped up by a bigger fish, as was the case by BP/Shell before they swallowed Aventura based on their discovery of Carapal ridge in the neighbouring block.
https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/Vintage,_Aventura_Conclude_Initial_Carapal_Testing