Member Info for Theanalyzer

Given net assets were just over £3 million at year end not sure why you think Gable might have £50 million left over in next set of accounts?

GAH isn't underwriting at present because of the capital shortfall - it is in run off. The Lichenstein regulator will I suspect require a lot of convincing to let Gable recommence underwriting Retrospective reinsurance still requires capital to be held against the reinsurance asset and given Gable's poor track record in pricing and reserving business it won't be easy I suspect to find a reinsurer to take on downside especially in current investment climate. Gable may be able to turn itself into a MGA for third parties but given all of its brokers now have new underwriters even that is a stretch. The good news is that Dewsall will have trousered another £300,000 in base pay already in 2016.

Gable still has a massive capital shortfall Implementing Sequel to help provide required SII disclosures under Pillar 3 of SII doesn't fix the Capital shortfall under Pillar I of SII or the poor risk and capital management that led to capital shortfall under Pillar 2 of SII Gable is a dog and in my opinion will end up appointing administrators

Is director getting out because he does want to be director of company that has gone into administration?

Spock What about the huge liabilities which had to be increased in current year due to their historic under estimation Insurers typically have investments and cash that are multiples of net assets Gable lost 88% of shareholders equity last year and has a massive capital shortfall

I still retain a holding which is effectively free after deducting gain on partial sale Will see what results are when interims are published and my well buy more

I sold down block of share as DPP is now valued at same price per store as DOM which has mature portfolio plus growth in Germany and Nordic territories but generates a lot of cash and is buying back shares. Turnover may be £6 to £7m so valued at 10 times turnover and I suspect DPP won't be profitable for a year or so yet

Losing over 85% of prior years shareholders equity in single year is not a sign of a strong insurance company No point being in a loss making niche Also Gable has stopped writing new business at present so its clients will be finding a new insurance company which is also eroding value Only £3 million in equity between this company and insolvency and it lost £24 million last year

I particularly liked comment about accelerated store rollout which means fast growth should continue Sounds like they will have 30 stores shortly They still have to hit some major cities like Poznan and Katowice

Your right Lancashire can obtain a line of credit Gable can't

Check Lancashire LRE it trades close to net assets and is profitable GAH lost money last in last two years and has a massive capital shortfall relative to current market cap and you believe it should be valued at higher premium than Lancashire which is profitable At 10p it would value at 4 times book value more than even the majority of successful property and casualty insurers The key risk on insurers is that they don't set enough money for past claims and Gable has this problem in large measure. In 2013 it thought claims for 2013 would total 23,039. It has already paid 23,327 and now thinks claims could be 31,802. Let's hope they are more accurate on subsequent years claims. Details are from note 3. It may well go higher as an illiquid AIM stock which market makers will not want to hold but fundamentals don't support valuation even at current price Good Luck you will need it

SII shortfall is £47 m more as stated on page 4 of annual report The claims are under technical provisions in the balance sheet The company is now valued at twice net assets a price to book typically reserved for the various best insurers not for a company that lost nearly 90% of its net worth last year Sure some people will trade this at a profit even with a big spread but it's high risk imp

All insurers have more financial investments such as cash than market capitalization. They also have significant and estimated liabilities. In Gable's case they have recently updated estimated liabilities and spotted there almost £50 m short of required capital

As a holder I do think price has got too far ahead but factor in the following 1 strong director buying before close period and I am talking £100,000s 2 increased number of stores opened in last 18 months which will push turnover up 3 strong like for like growth for last few periods 4 leverage model as rollout continues So continued hold for me even if price drops on interim results update

Gable now in run off probably because regulated said that they don't have enough capital to continue trading. I suspect that EY disclaimer reflects the refinancing plans are not substantive enough to be credible enough to say going concern but with fundamental uncertainties.

Gah lost over 88% of opening shareholders equity in a single year and has net assets down to a few million pounds so hardly a bargain P&C insurers are usually valued at a percentage of net assets not value of cash and investments held I note EY London haven't signed off accounts because they don't believe it is a going concern so shares are likely to remain suspended

If you have shorted this down from 80p or even 20 p you wouldn't be worried by a minor blip upwards but given GAH need to raise capital why would the share price bounce up as any equity issue is likely to be dilutive?

Presumably Brexit fears are why this has dropped Recent like for like sales update was solid I will continue to hold

Last recession saw a strong performance from Dominos in UK so I as a long term holder not worried about Brexit Looking forward to see how new German jv is performing at interim results

I suspect they want to able to state they have freaky with regulatory capital shortfall before they publish but I guess they are struggling to raise capital due to their now apparent poor track