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Looking at the recent placement another way
11,607,149 shares total, of which there was
1,833,573 shares for the Directors Subscription
That leaves 9.77M shares that were bought by someone else.. Thats £2.75M roughly thats been invested in the company. Quite a vote of confidence from external parties other than the directors themselves.
Rather than viewing the fact that JM only bought 500k this time, we need to start thinking about who bought the rest of them! JM has stepped in and bought more when he needed to i.e when there wasnt enough interest from other investors to make up the required placing. The fact that he needed to buy less this time means that there was enough interest from others to fund the placing. We would like to know who took part in the private placing, but unless it generates a TR-1, we probably wont know.. the shares are placed on Friday, so we might see something next week perhaps..
Yes the drop is disappointing but many here were forecasting a drop to mid 20's due to a placing being imminent. It was known, thats why many waited to buy back in at these levels instead of 30p.
regards
T123
Exactly - if this was a dead duck, or if there was some major issue with BFS, or land, etc etc - all those taking part in the placing at 28p would be out to sue MC and co for false representation.. See Pure Gold as a recent example!
Rio Tinto did 18 months due diligence before even entering Nicaragua as a jurisdiction.. and then doing the JV deal with Calibre. These things take time.. In the meantime, MC has local employees, bills to pay and a SAG Mill to finish paying for, or else there will be no project whatsoever..
The big issue now (and I think for a lot of institutional investors) is at what cost will the CAPEX raise be to fund CNR's share of the equity vs debt... that could be a much, much bigger and more dilutive event than today has been.. Again, MC might just need some time to find a way to reduce that dilution to a minimum.. and until then, II's might not want to buy in until the issue is resolved. I wonder if he is trying to negotiate some kind of earn in / jv agreement where a major funds the 30% of CNR's CAPEX in return for X% of the project..
Unbelievably frustratingly slow process for us though tbh - but MC is keeping the lights on here and CNR is still on track to build a mill that will process 150-200koz of gold per year..
regards
T123
We knew the placement was coming, 28p is not a bad price, was expecting 25p tbh. I started to complain that we dont get to participate in this at 28p, and then realised that I can buy under the placing price at 27p, so thats what I did. Only thing we dont get are the extra warrants of course..
We need to hear more about progress towards finance - and the whole state of the BFS is very confusing.. nearly all studies complete, but still wont be released till later this year? If ever a bit of good news was required its now - Rio deal, Calibre tie up - give us something to be positive about! Just seems to have been delay after delay with the resulting drain on working capital requiring yet more raises/dilution..
regards
T123
https://decrypt.co/102772/binance-halts-bitcoin-withdrawals-due-to-stuck-on-chain-transaction?amp=1
Got a bit worried about stories of paused withdrawals and whatnot tonight so I went to the safe and checked that i could still take out my #goldcoins - and yep - all good. Very shiny and they still feel nice and heavy. I suppose that’s the benefit of a physical asset not held by an intermediary. No one can stop you taking them out and checking they still exist. Oh and spending them of course. ;-)
Keep hodling, oops sorry holding folks..
Regards,
T123
Looks like gold and silver prices are getting caught up in the "sell everything and panic" mode for markets as they worry about inflation.. Not a rational move, but when you are facing margin calls, gold is liquid cash to sell/cover. So far the CNR SP is not affected. I think we could finally see a rotation away from tech/growth stocks into value/commodity stocks.. feels like its underway to me..
Historically, gold and silver tend to do very well in the months following this kind of initial panic/risk off event..
Mark Child - the LTH's here need you to pull a golden rabbit out of that top hat of yours PDQ mate..
regards,
T123
Interesting strategy ISAP thanks. Certainly seemed to be a few big buys at 29.5-30.5 last week, the volume and interest was there at those levels.. We just need some news on a possible Rio Tinto deal, BFS etc.. I did wonder, if Rio enter a JV with Condor, whether they might give Calibre (another junior partner in Nicaragua) a kick up the jacksy to get over themselves and sort out a toll deal with Condor finally..
RE: BTC crash today - it looks like we are finally seeing the answer to the question "which holds value better in an inflationary environment, BTC or Gold..?" If the crypto guys are finally selling out, will they put their money into gold and silver etfs perhaps? - i think there might be a lot of pain to come in BTC.. sub $20k seems like a big possibility now..
regards
T123
And you would hope (although not always been the case with NMC) that they would hold tight to those warrants purchased in the expectation of a much bigger payday soon- rather than buy at 25p and sell at 30p into a market with no liquidity etc..
So we might not see a drop to 25p again after all unless even more funding is required.. i.e $3-4M cos 750k is not enough to last until project is financed..
regards
T123
Warrants - 3,073,754 warrants at exercise price 25p. Expiry date 15 July 2022
If these are all taken up, it would bring in £750k to keep the lights on till full project financing.. and give a huge vote of confidence to the project.. if they are not taken up at 25p with the SP at 30, it would be a concern as to why not, with all the positive spin MC is putting on everything..
regards
T123
Plenty of junior mining takeovers have happened on the strength of a PFS, and sometimes even on a PEA.. so a published BFS is not necessarily a prerequisite for a sale.. in fact, any prospective buyers might decide to move before the BFS to try to secure a cheaper deal / reduce any competing interests.. Also, if its a US company, paying in $, the pounds weakness at the moment makes a sale price look a lot better value for them.. so a good time to do a deal all round.
Short term though, I wonder how MC is financing the company for working capital, with BFS studies to be paid, $0.5M for SAG mill etc.. very surprised a placing hasnt appeared yet.. funds must be running low right now!
regards
T123
I think its either the recent talk of a major doing due diligence in the data room that could mean some kind of earn-in interest similar to this one that RT signed with Calibre in 2020.. (up to $45M)
First Option: Rio Tinto shall have a five-year option to acquire a 55% interest in the Borosi Projects by incurring $10,000,000 in qualifying expenditures, of which $3,000,000 is committed to be incurred within two years of obtaining the necessary permits and approvals.
Second Option: If Rio Tinto exercises the First Option and earns a 55% interest in the Borosi Projects, it has the right to earn an additional 10% interest (for an aggregate interest of 65%) by incurring an additional $15,000,000 over a three-year period.
Third Option: If Rio Tinto exercises the Second Option and earns a 65% interest in the Borosi Projects, it has the right to earn an additional 10% interest (for an aggregate interest of 75%) by incurring an additional $20,000,000 over a subsequent three-year period.
Or its the outstanding warrants/options that are due to expire for NMC that MC hopes will be taken up and keep the lights on...
Either way, $0.5M is due as the remainder of the balance for the SAG mill to First Majestic soon.. So some kind of fund raising has to take place.. (i.e before the full project financing happens)
And if all that fails, then yes a further equity raise at 25-30p is on the cards meaning more dilution.. :-(
regards
T123
http://condorgold.com/sites/default/files/presentations/Condor%20121%20New%20York%206%20%26%207%20June%202022%20%20-%20%20Read-Only_0.pdf
Latest presentation for the new york conference - spot the difference anyone? No, neither can I...
regards
T123
More like
3 Years: Feasibility Study Due.
6 Years: New FS Study updated for 100% higher Capex due to rampant Inflation, and Project Finance Secured via huge dilution
6.1 years: Ortega dies, plunging Nicaragua into Civil war - New ruling party bans mining
12 Years: Still awaiting outcome of hearing regarding mining ban, meanwhile locals continue to extract artisanal ore with gold at $5000 an ounce
18 Years: Mark retires and hands over CEO role
18.1 years - Construction commences
19 years - First Production at 150koz pa
https://www.weare121.com/121mininginvestment-new-york/condor-gold/
What are your key goals for the next 3, 6 and 12 months?
3 Months: Feasibility Study Due
6 Months: Project Finance Secured
12 Months: Construction Commenced
What do you see as the key risks and challenges facing your company at the moment and how are you overcoming these? - Finance
Would make sense - buy 3M warrants at 25p and sell a good proportion at 33p to cover your £750k purchase costs.. free shares for him and it might give us all an opportunity to top up around 25- 30p again if they are then sold onto the open market for a quick profit..
MC would never say it, but I wonder if the lack of funds is whats stopping the BFS from being completed? Is he stalling for time to avoid paying for the completed studies? To give more time to arrange financing etc..
Great drill results again, but no one cares how much gold there is in the ground, they want to see the timescales/costs to actually getting it out of the ground and selling it.. and after more than 10 years of drilling, who can blame them..
regards
T123
12th May for AGM - so next week. Doesnt tend to be a significant event for any milestone RNS news in my experience..
But only 7 weeks left until the end of H1 2022 for the BFS release - so watch out for any new presentations moving that date till H2 2022..
regards
T123
Yep - lots of CNR money is being spent every month by locals and the local artisanal miners keep on digging and selling ounces of gold out of Condors concessions.. so yes, lots happening on the ground.. just nothing that is actually benefiting us long suffering shareholders in my opinion but we are so glad that the local community are having a ball our expense.. im sure we will see a nice fund raise soon to dilute us even further so that we can keep them in the manner they have become accustomed to, while extorting the company to buy the land they "own" at 100x its value and the government continues to talk a good game but does nothing on the ground to actually help move the project forward..
Meanwhile, in the real world, gold is at $1950 an ounce and CNR are still not in a position to be able to make any money from their huge land package after 12 years of exploring... frankly, its becoming ridiculous now..
regards,
T123
Ok - so I'd forgotten about this concession granted back in 2018..
"In December 2018, the Government of Nicaragua granted Condor a major exploration and exploitation concession adjacent to the La India Project. This confirms that the country is pro-mining and open for business. The 142.6 km2 Las Cruces concession expands the La India Project area by 45 per cent. Las Cruces was granted by the government under a 25 year exploration and exploitation concession. Condor’s geologists have identified a major north-northeast-striking basement feeder zone through the Project (the “La India Corridor”), which hosts 90 per cent of Condor’s 2.4 Moz gold resource.
The feeder zone can be projected south-east into Las Cruces. Mapping and early prospecting/sampling show that Las Cruces lies inside a volcanic caldera and has extensive clay alteration and rare vuggy silica. This alteration appears to be a ‘lithocap’, which raises the possibility of underlying porphyry-style mineralisation (copper and/or gold).
This porphyry is potentially the ‘heat engine’ and metal source that caused gold mineralisation across the entire La India Gold District. We are particularly keen to follow up on anomalous samples of up to 0.1 per cent copper. "
Trace element concentrations, including anomalous samples of up to 0.1% copper, suggest the following possibilities:
1) an extensive fossil water table alteration related to low sulfidation epithermal veins (similar to La India);
2) a distal part of a high sulfidation gold/copper deposit, hosted by advanced argillic alteration (vuggy silica),
3) a lithocap above a porphyry (gold, or copper/gold). Figure 7 . Map showing location of the Las Cruces concession with delimited areas of strong alteration After reviewing the data, Condor decided to apply to the Ministry of Energy and Mines for the Las Cruces concession (174.2 km of the grant of concession was received in November)
regards
T123