Member Info for tester123

15p should be the floor for this going forward, but unless news on the sales process is announced before xmas ( i highly doubt that) then we could see sub 15p in the quiet holiday trading - at that point I might be tempted to average down..

regards
T123

I guess the hope is that one of the 6 (8 now?) NDAs that have been signed out of the 70 or so companies tapped by H&P will break ranks and make a bid.. a bit like the wildebeest on the river of crocodiles- when the first one goes, they all have to go!

I agree though that there is no guarantee that a bid will ever be made within the next 12 months. In the last video, MC seemed confident that it would take between 3-6 months and a $100-200M sale price was achievable. The problem is, we have all heard MC's predictions before (Toll Milling etc) and they rarely come true. We can only hope this is the final exception to the rule.

Still a 15p to c.50p+ valuation is a good reward for the risk, so your pays your money and takes your chances.. Again, i will want to see how much the directors put into the open offer first.. Do they believe MC and JMs promises of $100M+ sales or not?

regards
T123

An even worse video is where MC answers that it will take around 3-4 months to arrange finance for the project. Then 3 weeks later does a complete about turn and says "we are not mine builders, we were never going to build this project, we are junior explorers"... oh right, so why buy a SAG Mill package and tell us you are going to finance the mine build then? Every indication was that the financing would be done to build the project whether that was gold loans, JV funding, even toll milling.. the risk here is that we fund the company for another 6-12 months and the assets still dont sell.. then what happens? another fund raise? we need confirmation that there are companies interested in the assets at all before we take that risk - as I say, I want to see the directors putting up some money here first as a show of confidence that this is a possibility (apart from JM)..

regards
T123

Under MC's stewardship (how can you tell he is lying? his lips are moving) I fully expect the La India assets to be sold at well under NAV and then the next week the gold price will double and all juniors will get an immediate rerating.. confidence in MC? After this debacle, are you kidding me.. ?

T123

Im waiting to see how confident the rest of the directors are in the assets and whether they will put their money where their mouths are by buying all of their allotted 1/6th at 15p, or even more than that.. e.g will MC buy his full 700k etc? or just a token amount? As you say, as we are close enough to 15p now anyway, I would rather just wait and buy on the open market to average down here when the dust settles from the open offer details. I think sub 15p entry might even be possible at that point if its not well received..

regards
T123

The big question for me is whether the other directors will support this open offer or "rights issue" as MC called it. e.g With a 4.2M holding,MC could subscribe for an extra 700k shares @15p for £105k to average down and load up. But will he? If he doesnt, then why not? If he knows that an offer is on the cards for 30-40-50-60 whatever per share - it would seem easy money if he has the inside track.. If they dont participate, then maybe they know what we dont - no such offer is in the wings and there is no certainty of a sale even at a low ball price.

Im considering participating... but it feels like a double or nothing deal.. either fund the company to get over the line for a cheap sale price of the assets or you will get nothing as CNR will be bankrupt / not a going concern anyway - potentially another reason why they want this done in time for year end accounting on 31st Dec..

T123

Surely at the very least there has to be a "gold in the ground" valuation on this. Lets say it could be 2,4Moz @ a very low average of $50 an ounce in the ground - thats still $120M dollars, plus the SAG mill, the land package, the permits, the BFS costs..

regards
T123

Simms - in latest interview, MC mentions that they are looking at the risk of being a single project company in a single jurisdiction with the potential political and construction risks over the next 18 months.. i think they will only go down the production route if no viable offers received (personally I would prefer that as I think thats where the value will lie, yes its a risk but after 10 years, so what for another 18 months).. yes I think 60p maximum for the assets im afraid. V. disappointing.

regards
T123

If Calibre do buy CNR, then they will have got their wish - deny the company a toll deal in order to weaken the share price to the max, and then buy it all on the cheap. They would get everything they needed for another 150koz mill in the country, they could fund the capex out of cash flow from Libertad, while possibly trucking ore from Mestiza to the spare capacity they have elsewhere and use the profits to pay for the mine. But they may not want to do that, as its putting 90% of their eggs in one jurisdiction, which with US sanctions, might be more risky now.

To me, the simplest solution would be for Rio Tinto to buy both Calibres Nic Assets and CNR at the same time. In 18 months, they would get c.400k of gold production a year for peanuts, which is a Tier1 operation for them. They could even just issue RIO paper and it wouldnt even cost them any cash. So we could get a RIO shares deal instead of an outright cash buy out. Im sure the directors would go for that - JM loves Rio as a dividend payer anyway.

Other option is a chinese company coming in. But I think you have to look at a market where Shanta gets 3 offers and none of them even remotely value the company properly. What chance does CNR have with its assets of getting a fair price for the gold they have proven up and the work they have done?

regards,
T123

Warrant prices for directors etc
8,194,125 warrants at exercise price 40p. Expiry date 28 May 2023
5,857,138 warrants at exercise price 50p. Expiry date 2 November 2023
5,803,570 warrants at exercise price 35p Expiry date 17 June 2025
Plus their Options - Various but majority are well under 50p.

My guess is that they are looking for a sale value that equates to at least 50p per share so they can exercise their options and warrants and make a quick buck and walk away. Very disappointing.

But what if they cant sell the assets for that price? For whatever reason, they have now decided that financing the project themselves is a no - go - whether thats because the appetite for risk in lending to a project in Nic following US sanctions has now dried up, we dont know. Seems very coincidental though. Plus the low SP means any debt would be disastrous for SP dilution.

Cant believe its come down to this after all the work put in here, delays for permitting etc. Perhaps JM will just buy out the remaining 80% he doesnt own and take it private. I think this is the wrong time to sell, just prior to a gold price rerate with inflation, collapsing dollar due to recession etc..

T123

At least the calibre share price has settled today - holding steady at 58-60c range.. good to see, as they have a lot more to lose than Condor if there were any major concerns about sanctions affecting operations or gold sales..

regards
T123

Hi Sam - slightly wishful thinking perhaps, but I did have a thought that if Calibre wanted to exit Nic and focus on US properties instead then perhaps they would do a fire sale to Condor for the El Limon and La Libertad mines (as B2Gold sold them for $100M to them initially) Then CNR could use La India ore as a further spoke in their hub and spoke mine plans - saving CNR $105M capex and 18 month construction to build La India.. or at least delaying the mine build and paying out of cashflow instead..

regards
T123

Not unless Jim and friends are collecting cheap shares in the meantime as there has been some big volumes at these levels... Perhaps the RNS will conveniently arrive just as soon as they have finished loading up :-)

regards
T123

AIM WINNERS & LOSERS: Condor Gold La India study disappoints
Wed, 26th Oct 2022 11:17 - (Alliance News) - The following stocks are the leading risers and fallers on AIM in London on Wednesday.

AIM - LOSERS
Condor Gold PLC, down 11% at 22.81 pence, 12-month range 20.45p-40.50p. Says feasibility study for La India project, in Nicaragua, shows probable mineral reserves of 7.3 million tonnes at 2.56 grammes per tonne gold. Production is seen at 81,545 ounces per annum for first 6 years. Plans to "materially expand production" at the project with a stage 2 expansion and is working to convert existing mineral resources into mineral reserve. Expects low initial capital requirement of USD105.5 million and notes study shows life of mine all-in sustaining cash costs at USD1,039 per ounce. At a price of USD1,600 per ounce of gold, mine holds internal rate of return of 23% and net present value of USD86.9 million.

Just shows that these guys (or their AI algorithms) have absolutely no clue about reporting company news accurately - todays drop is nothing to do with the news on the BFS - the figures were known about a month ago and caused a steady rise in the SP. The only thing causing this today is the uncertainty around US sanctions on Nicaraguan state gold mining company and some individuals associated with it.

Come on MC - issue a statement saying these sanctions will not materially affect Condor or ability to build the project! Been some big sells followed by some equally big buys today... you pays your money and you takes your chances :-(

regards,
T123

I think it would be good to hear from MC on what impact this could have on the project. The TSF design was done by Tierra Group of Denver and the Processing Plant design by Hanlon Engineering in Tucson, Arizona - my concern would be that as US based companies, these may be impacted by US sanctions and prohibit them/US individuals from contributing to any project that may increase gold revenues for the Nic Gov. Hanlon is actually Australian owned, so perhaps could be exempted but it would be a big blow if the work from those companies is halted (although work for BFS is completed already, phew). I think those companies might also have been in the running for the EPCM contract to construct La India, although there are other options (Lycopodium etc).

First Majestic Silver have a stake in CNR, along with Randy Martin for NMC (an american citizen I think ?) - wonder if sanctions would affect their stakes in Condor, or prohibit them from continuing... ?

Im sure MC isnt too enamoured with being in the press today and associated with this news - I thought at the time that the pictures published with Ortega and the minister for energy and mines was a bit of a nightmare publicity stunt that could come back to bite us..

We really have to hope that the UK doesnt follow suit / bow to pressure from US to start sanctioning UK companies / individuals under the umbrellla of "Nic supports Russia" so any friend of ours also has to ditch Nicaragua.. :-(

regards,
T123

And of course JM is also a big Rio Tinto fan.. loves the dividend yield etc.. wonder how many friends he has at Rio Tinto.. those could come in rather handy me thinks.. ;-)

Now is not the time to be selling these.. we are at the money end of the deal at last… and Jim has finally stepped up…

Looking forward to seeing what happens here now…

Regards
T123

No such luck im afraid - MC runs a tight ship and wouldnt give any hints of impending news.. its just based on previous price action with Condor.. these rises on higher volume buys usually portend a much bigger rise is due.. we all know that this can move 30,40,50 even 100% in a couple of weeks..

Its more a case of putting 2+2 together and maybe getting 5, but if you rewatch MC interviews recently, it all seems very confident, alluding to CA agreements etc. Plus he said back in April he was already under an NDA - if those guys took 6 months to do due diligence, culminating in a 6 person site visit last month.. October is round about the time it would come to fruition perhaps, and with the FS officially published on SEDAR in a couple of weeks.. it all seems to rhyme..

For that reason, I think selling at 30p is incredibly short sighted based on all of the above.. still making 10% regularly is fine for some.. id rather wait for the 500-1000% rise though, but thats just me..

The volumes are very high today - its just feels like some news is coming..

regards
T123

All a bit "leaky leaky" here? - this rise is on no news (at least not public to us yet) - but one can imagine any number of scenarios causing this... some deal struck with RT, or Calibre.. maybe FMS averaging down on their 50p shares from last year for the SAG mill before it hits 50p again.. Could also have been some financing deal done that ensures minimal equity dilution to finance CNR share of the plant CAPEX.. just have to wait and see which one is playing out.. RNS Monday maybe?

regards
T123

All aboard if you're getting aboard.. oh and please fasten your seatbelts...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ycG-xe1uSM

Seems to be a few folks selling these at 30.5p - thats really going to hurt in a few days.. my sympathies in advance.. :-(

regards,
T123

https://events.masterinvestor.co.uk/past-events/master-investor-sector-focus-going-for-gold/

Skip to 1hr 20 to hear Marks Presentation last week..

regards
T123