Upside - downside27 Apr 2021 17:26
After reading through the posts on here, it's apparent there's lots of people who haven't been round the block many times.
There is huge potential upside here, but there is also huge potential downside (note micgill's post on "little downside").
In my experience when there's a binary pharmaceutical trial result expected, share prices do not move upwards in anticipation.
To say there is little downside is playing with the truth, or self delusion, or confirmation bias.
If the Covid trial tanks , so will Vela.
All we know atm is that the drug is safe, and has a tendency towards helping.
This is totally different from statistical success. Those on here who know Drs who've invested (so they must have knowledge of success likelihood) make me laugh.
Biochemists and pharmaceutical brainbox PhDs are behind these types of trials - and in the Pharma world more fail than succeed - despite the genius involved. I've even seen some major pharmaceutical investors fooled by "positive indications" over the last 3 years.
So a few GPS invested, who can barely diagnose a cold, doesn't really impress.
Now, imo , all looks good , and I wouldn't be invested here if I didn't believe the trial probably will be successful..but the range could be from statistically insignificant tendency towards to overwhelming success. (And of course total failure)