The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Given the weak guidance from Nike how can anyone expect a positive reaction to the update next week. People still mentioning the Olympics for JD! Hilarious. Hoping this does get a pop so I can short. Long term bullish but will be at least a year before KD gets its act together. Given the miss and criticism Schultz won’t want to over promise again.
I believe that if you short a stock that goes ex divi on IG you pay a ‘dividend adjustment’ equal to the drop so you won’t profit from your short. Otherwise everyone would short ex divi stocks. If you are short an index they do the same too.
A few price targets being mentioned on here based on pure hope. Why would the stock be back at 160 (where it was pre announcement) unless there’s a big beat and acknowledgement that JD is back on track. If we get to 125 I’ll be scaling in short. The only way JD has a big pop now is if they announce big head count cuts. And then that bounce would be temporary in my view. I think March they state same profits as this year and hope to beat them. Can’t say lower surely it will get crushed but equally can’t be too optimistic as that is what Schultz has been criticised for.
I’m sure it will if you have that sort of time horizon. Usually an absolute monster churning out profit beats. Something has just gone off hopefully temporary. I think it will be a totally new management team by then as Pentland won’t want their golden goose faltering!
That’s why I’m quite bearish as I’ve never seen Nike off the boil for years and these trends don’t suddenly change. Something must have changed globally though and not be market specific. Good that Nike get a bloody nose for being so arrogant bullying retailers but doesn’t help jd!
Football is a tiny part of Jd revenue and won’t move the needle. There is no margin in football. Hence why they don’t sell an array of boots like Sports Direct. I agree that you have to forget a bit about sporting events. The facts are that for some reason it’s not been the must be place for fashion over Christmas. Cost of living etc don’t really wash as JD has always weathered and fared well regardless through tough periods before. You can forgive management for not expecting this even as late as September as the bulk of sales on over Christmas. It can only be the Nike effect I assume.
Yes 100% if Nike turn it around and jd can sell the gear and £250 trainers like 18 months ago happy days for sure. I haven’t seen Nike go off like this before so that’s why I am a bit bearish. These things don’t change overnight. Cheers all
I have been bullish on this share for 10 years but everything has changed and it isn’t the darling of the industry anymore. It is an excellent company but it’s lost its way under this management. Long term I am sure it will come good but I think we go lower and then all depends on their guidance in March then beating that in a year to get back on track. I just don’t understand all the new investors here. Where have you been for the last 10 years? All that has brought you here is price vs where it was which I find odd.
A small reprieve today but likely heading lower. There’s never been meaningful director buys at JD bar Cowgill so not expecting any help from that side. As I’ve said previously I think the growth game is over here. £900m profit is amazing but this is always a growth stock. And now that’s ended. Growth for the sale of it is pointless. All the new stores and investment, buying out partners and now the same profit as a few years ago. It was always going to transition to a steady good business like Boots or WHSmith. They’ve just not expected it to happen with Nike falling off and have therefore been u lucky in their expectation management. All the sports events play to Frasers not Jd. It’s fashion not sport. With the likes of M&S having a good Christmas it’s definitely a little bit on its own. If the mistake they have made is mismanaging expectations they are hardly going to say 1bn for the current year come March. Probably 900m-950m and hope to beat it. But we won’t know for a year. So until the narrative changes this will be under pressure.
Yes apologies Tav I know they are growing from a store perspective but I think the profit growth will stall here. All those extra stores, buying our JV partners and still the same profit as a few years ago. New markets are not as attractive as Uk and USA and the major euro markets like France and Italy. In those markets jd is already well established and completely dominating Footlocker and Snipes. Closing the South Korea territory shows there’s limits to this global expansion. US is the only game in town now. Selling off protective fashion businesses to Frasers strengthening your major uk competitor was bizarre. Something that would never have happened under Cowgill. I have followed this amazing company for over 10 years and have always been bullish but I think this statement should give investors pause. And there is absolutely no basis for a new investor here imo. The new management team has a big challenge ahead. GLA
Quite bizarre to see so many first time buyers of JD here. Lets ignore this amazing company for the last 10-15 years and wait until the worst statement they have ever produced to invest. There is nothing here that says buy until there is evidence or guidance that the growth is back on track. Many buys just because its dropped 25%. Its dropped 25% for a very good reason. Its only dropped to the price it was 2 months ago. And the narrative has entirely changed and won't be changing anytime soon. Nike clearly coming off in fashion trend does not reverse over night. You cannot replace that price point with weaker brands when you are up against such aggressive LFL's built on years and years of growth. This statement confirms the growth is over for now. And the wages are going up this year too!
Yes perhaps struggles all round. I'm amazed SPDY is actually still around. Thought that was destined for a FRAS purchase out of admin about 3 years ago! The problem with the likes of middle east growth etc is the returns are not going to be the same as UK and USA. The Europe growth is done. Looks to appear like growth in stores for the sake of it when they already have the major markets covered. Where is the return on capital for the new stores? Especially as those costs rise. Tough time for JD now.
Lots of chat about how this has been overdone. Perhaps not. These results may bring an end to the huge growth story JD has been riding for the last decade, particularly if other fashion retailers are performing. I cannot recall such a limp statement from what is usually expected and that is why it is being hammered. Management changes at the top appear to be more fitting to a ftse 100 company but JD appears to have lost its grit and fight when under Cowgill. How long before he is parachuted in! If Nike sales are poor its going to be flat for a while until that trend changes. Nike deserve it for their arrogant approach cutting off retailers and trying their DTC model.
It is all about Nike. The company was transformed back of its popularity and, more importantly, price point. Only Adidas has the other big slug of revenue. The other brands mentioned are negligible in terms of pricing. Let's see.
Wouldn’t have thought so. SP has never reacted to any news on it historically. Even when bad news doesn’t seem to affect it. Maybe just uk covid rates? Damage should be limited from here maybe 5% max. Then Christmas trading announcement which are always positive.
Don’t think we’ll see a pull back on results. If anything the stock usually has an ok day then builds for a week once it hits the papers. All relatively slow in UK. Apart from Jan where it spiked up then fell away. Big question is how many attempts until it breaks £10.
Not great but is it any different in any other warehouse? Amazon, BooHoo? Just don’t think it’s relevant to the SP and is actually old news. Like when the press went round the sports direct website. At least there’s some share chat on this bird for a change!