Member Info for TalygarnTom

Another article. The source looks like an unemployed journalist (see second article). You have to say that the timing is extremely dubious. The question is whose interest is best served? The GoT or Barrick.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/18/tech-firms-check-suppliers-mining-revelations-tanzania

http://www.execreview.com/2019/06/how-writing-about-a-goldmine-cost-a-top-reporter-his-job/

https://barrick.q4cdn.com/788666289/files/doc_news/2019/06/Further-Update-Concerning-Acacia-Mining-plc-%E2%80%93-Situation-in-Tanzania-and-Review-of-Acacia-Mine-Plans.pdf

A small extract from the most recent 12 page broker report.

Stage 2b comprises US$0.5bn Initial Bond issuance and a US$2.5bn RCF: Stage 2b
requires the raising of at least US$500m of senior secured high-yield (HY) bonds
(henceforth, ‘Initial Bonds’) and entering into a US$2.5bn Revolving Credit Facility (RCF).
Together, these represent the ‘Senior Debt Event’ – the availability of each senior debt
component would be conditional (amongst other things) on the other being available. The
Event is also a condition of the release of escrowed convertible proceeds.

Initial Bonds – eventuation of ‘B’ rating would bode well: In our view, the Initial Bond
issuance represents the crux on which the Stage 2 financing package hinges. That said, we
do not believe that raising the requisite amount will prove unduly problematic – rather, we
believe it will be a question of price.

From this perspective, encouragingly, we understand that
Sirius expects (from having consulted ratings agencies) that the Initial Bonds will attract a ‘B’
credit rating. Should this rating eventuate, we expect that it would bode well for the issuance.

Model updated: We have updated our (real) model to take into account the Stage 2a
financing outcome, our Stage 2b expectations, information in Sirius’s May 2019 prospectus
and the company’s 2018 results. Our model now yields a post-tax FY2019F NPV 8% of £6.3bn
or 65p/share fully diluted (FD) on our ‘base-case’ assumptions. We estimate a Risked NPV
of 40p/share post the Senior Debt event, derived by applying a 40% ‘haircut’ and rounding
the result.

https://www.cityam.com/acacia-shareholder-odey-will-vote-against-barrick-bid-if-it-stays-unchanged/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=acacia-shareholder-odey-will-vote-against-barrick-bid-if-it-stays-unchanged

https://1drv.ms/u/s!ApfJej54wSbFh9JJ-Qrp4rIaR45cDA

More jam tomorrow.

The cost structure here is completely wrong. Look at the comparison between the two companies shown via the link below. On the left is marble producer MERMEREN Kombinat AD Prilep based in the Republic of Macedonia and on the right our very own Fox Marble based in Kosovo. How can Fox justify these operating costs?

https://1drv.ms/u/s!ApfJej54wSbFh9JI2eBkTvlZUjK3Og

Posting my Koovs research from last year for anyone new to the story.

https://www.evernote.com/l/AB5dMSAkscBMfbsdGzF38A19W9AtEkJwbuo/

This reminds me of the Gemfields takeover by Pallinghurst a few years ago. The board at Gemfields rejected the offer and Pallinghurst made a hostile offer to try to pass the 70% threshold and succeeded. Mainly because of lot of smaller shareholders didn’t want to hold shares outside CREST on the Jo’burg market.

This is a dreadful outcome.The same thing happened to Gemfields a couple of years ago. In the end Pallinghurst, the majority shareholder, made a hostile effort to acquire 70% of the shares and force the takeover. In the end enough minority holders caved in. I can see the same happening here. Barrick haven’t made any effort to offer fair value and appear to be totally complicit. It was ridiculous to let them negotiate in the first place. At least we know why the AGM is at the lawyers office. This hasn’t all materialised over night.

Tanzania fines Acacia Mining $2.4 mln over alleged pollution

https://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL5N22W1FU

https://youtu.be/zNRV39qd2nI

One of the closest watched metrics for online retailers is conversion which measures the percentage of website visits that place an order. If you look at p.11 of the 2018 Annual Report you will see that the conversion rate for Koovs was running at 1.4%. There are only two things that will improve sales - higher conversion and/or more visitors.

I think the writing is on the wall here. The GoT would prefer the Chinese to have ownership of Acacia and Barrick would be open to selling it to them. This is the reason why Acacia were excluded from the talks. However, one of the pre-conditions of the Chinese will be that all historical disputes are settled before they take ownership. The real argument here is about who should shoulder the liability to the GoT. The minority shareholders at Acacia (Odey/Blackrock etc) consider the matter an historical issue and feel that Barrick should shoulder the cost whilst Mr Bristow is employed to argue otherwise.

Fixing Tanzania tax row - http://www.mining.com/barrick-gold-first-quarter-profit-misses-analysts-forecast/

Since becoming Barrick's new leader this year, Bristow's biggest headache has been the company’s majority-owned African subsidiary, Acacia Mining (LON:ACA). The unit has been embroiled in a battle with Tanzania since 2017, when the country’s government banned exports of unprocessed metal and slapped it with a $190 billion tax bill— equal to almost two centuries worth of revenue.

The relationship between Barrick and its 64%-owned Acacia has been strained and progress moving an agreement forward has been almost impossible, Bristow said on Wednesday.

“It’s a tragedy," he told Bloomberg. "We’re dealing with a complete breakdown of relationships.”

Worth noting.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/iag-chief-offers-reassurance-ahead-of-planned-share-458090/

We're back where we were a year ago. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/crispin-odey-puts-mining-deal-in-jeopardy-jxxhln28f

https://youtu.be/6HWR9olah78

If I agreed 15p for 30% of my company, shook hands and signed an agreement - he would pay 15p. He has taken advantage of the fall in the share price and Alli's weak negotiating position to stagger his investment and to reduce his risk through the offer of convertible preference shares which will rank ahead of your shares in terms of security.

That said and all things considered I don't think Alli had much choice given the scale of the future opportunity.

As noted previously. https://twitter.com/talygarntom/status/1125863402306506752

Having read this article https://reut.rs/2Jf59CL I had another look at the projected cash flow statement which goes out to 2030 and I think Chris has done the right thing. If he sticks to the time line and the forecast cash flow statement is anywhere near accurate then the extra $200m in additional finance costs will be forgotten very quickly. They have revenue from 2022 - 2030 ramping up from $300m to $3Bn per year and EBITDA going from $216m to $2.2Bn. Margins are very strong. Any delay could have been very damaging.