Member Info for TalygarnTom

Been away from this one for a while as it has been a turnaround job for quite some time. If I'm not mistaken, it would appear that Mr Simms was poached by Bruin Capital following their £155m acquisition of Oddschecker from Flutter Entertainment this summer for £155m. That would out Mr Simms firmly in the competitor category from my understanding of their business. Any comments or further enlightenment would be welcome.

https://europeangaming.eu/portal/latest-news/2022/11/02/124161/bruin-capital-appoints-stuart-simms-as-new-ceo-of-oddschecker/

https://oddscheckerglobalmedia.com/

"At the end of last month, the Odey fund's merger arbitrage positions were: Crystal Amber at 5% of net asset value, Liberty Media (SPAC) at 4.8%, Resolute Forest at 4.6%, South Jersey at 4.3%, Emis Group at 3.4%, and Intertrust at 2.4%."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jacobwolinsky/2022/10/21/how-this-odey-fund-preserved-capital-in-september---and-so-far-all-year-long/?sh=aadac9b28703

Absolutely correct Bob. Well said.

The ball is in their court. Patience is a virtue and all that.
https://www.mining.com/barrick-takes-acacia-mining-back-as-buyout-deal-sealed/

"Saba Capital Management hired experienced counsel and proceeded to engage in 33 attacks on
funds from January 2016 through February 2020." P.41 onwards details the various approaches taken by Saba.
https://us.eversheds-sutherland.com/portalresource/20_ltr_cef.pdf

https://www.barrons.com/articles/congress-closed-end-funds-legislation-51627657959

The uncertainty over the coal price is the main problem. If they can't produce energy profitably, they can't generate free cash flow and if they can't generate free cash flow they can't invest (which they need to do to meet environmental regs) and it is not prudent to buy back the shares (even though I do agree it is a possibility) Not forgetting there is also some debt repayment due in 2022. Coal-fired power stations are like shares - the reality is that they are worth what somebody is prepared to pay for them and a lot of Western based funds are actively moving away from fossil fuel investments. On paper OPG is worth more but short-term OPG have a few hills to climb.

Two very useful links here for possible explanation as to the possible intentions of Saba, mostly in the lower part of the article.
https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1m3lx01dnj9mq/Boaz-Weinstein-Is-Making-Bank-He-s-Not-Happy-That-You-Know-About-It

https://www.trustnet.com/news/13281966/the-uk-trusts-on-the-biggest-discount-or-premiums-relative-to-their-history-

Companies trade below book value all the time. They had £26.7m of cash on the balance sheet at the end of 2021 with £19.1m of net debt. Debt is expensive in India. If they have to produce power at a loss due to high coal prices then they may have less cash at the end of the year. Hence, why there was no dividend. If such a situation were to persist for too long if may require debt arrangements or a fund raising, leading to a lower book value and likely lower share price.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/crystal-amber-fund--crs-/rns/result-of-agm/202111221626421746T/
"The Articles now require the Fund to formulate proposals to reorganise, reconstruct, or wind up the Company. In the coming weeks, the Fund intends to provide shareholders with specific proposals. It is currently envisaged that these will centre around the continued realisation of assets and increasing capital returns to shareholders. Based on the Manager's assessment of the status and timing of anticipated corporate transactions, the Fund is targeting additional shareholder returns of at least £40 million or 50p a share before 30 June 2022. This would bring returns of capital since the 2013 amendment to the Articles to more than £100 million. When such disposals are concluded, it is intended that returns to shareholders would be paid as soon as practicable. Further significant realisations and returns of capital are planned for the period after 30 June 2022."

What do you reckon the break-even price is for OPG's landed coal?

Let's put this in perspective and understand what the CFO anticipated before he sold (again).
Liberum have a new FY2022 EPS figure of 34.7p. Consensus before the update was EPS of 72.1p
That would put the shares on a p/e of around 48x. Normalised EPS for 2021 was 53.3p and for 2020 was 39.4p.
On the bright side in 2018 Braben gave an equally wide revenue forecast of £58 million to £88 million and delivered £89.7m so hopefully he is making a similar judgement and the result will come out to the upper end. Of course they can manipulate revenue slightly by lowering prices, promoting harder and taking a hit on the margin which is what we may see in the interim statement in February.

Do you think the CFO saw it coming?
https://twitter.com/talygarntom/status/1462705170563874819?s=20

https://braemar.com/files/Braemar-March-2021-Strategy-Update-V16-compressed.pdf

Tankers are the largest trading desk at Braemar.
https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1138893/Weekly-Briefing-Containers-Catch-22--Tankers-back-from-the-dead--Dry-bulk-slowdown

The brokers may be revising some of their longer term estimates. The underlying book price is the important factor here. Some parts of the market have been running very hot so hopefully they bank those gains and continue to pay down the debt. the tanker market remains subdued so limited downside there and any improved sentiment in that area should be positively reflected in the forward earnings. Hopefully, we have some earnings appreciative acquisitions and new broker desks in the pipeline.

https://www.lme.com/Metals/EV/Lithium-prices

"The agreement gives Ganfeng rights to 50% of the expected 17,500 tonnes per year of stage 1 production of lithium carbonate at Sonora's operations in Mexico and up to 75% of the 35,000 tpy of lithium carbonate during stage 2 production of the same project.
The offtake agreement was established at a market-based price per tonne. Although the companies did not specify the price reference agreed upon, Fastmarkets last assessed the battery-grade lithium carbonate (min 99.5% Li2CO3) spot price at $11-12.50 per kg on a cif China, Japan and Korea basis."
https://www.indmin.com/Article/3881765/Lithium-LatestNews/Ganfeng-Lithium-Bacanora-Lithium-sign-investment-offtake-agreement.html

Sorry to hear that Min. Do you use Twitter? You can find me @talygarntom.

Quick question for those more versed in this industry than I.

Why are there 38% less properties on the supply side of the market? Has the pandemic created a vacuum, where sellers have used the opportunity to spruce up their homes and take advantage of the stamp duty holiday or is there another reason?