Member Info for Surfit

Hey Retail,
Its all very complicated, what is interesting is that you are having trouble buying. Was it a large buy you were after? I can't imagine a few £k being an issue, so that is strange? Especially when after the merger there is going to be a lot of shares potentially avaliable or is some one acquiring....or some brokers loaned out too much?
With ii stating they do not loan out, that 8.21% not avaliable do not know about all the others:
Hargreaves Lansdown, stockbrokers (EO) 13.32
Interactive Investor (EO) 8.21
Aberforth Partners7.50
HSDL, stockbrokers (EO) 5.75
Schroder Investment Management 5.28
Barclays Smart Investor (EO) 4.25
Dimensional Fund Advisors 4.22
Vanguard Group 3.06
Legal and General Investment Management 2.50
Janus Henderson Investors 2.08
No mention of GoldmanS, (ARCM, Whitebox and Mel confirmed as shorting,via short tracker, and we know ARCM is a creditor and White & Mel may be covering for others).
Rgds Sft
Ps again too complicated for me; Jen and AndyP seem to have a better handle on it.

Thank you Orient, once the AGM date is announced.
I will and I am sure others will do the same on other platforms. Might be worth considering other platforms too I.e. twitter etc etc
Anyone know the protocols on if we do remove, the process, identification of and time scales for getting a replacement.
I would vote for Andrew Austin, but he has his new company, is into Gas and invests heavily (shares) into the company too I.e. does not rely on fat cat wages....but he could be approached as part of a recruitment panel?
Rgds Sft

Interesting point:
Point 1.
I contacted ii (I purchase through them) asking them if they ever lend shares out to other parties that could be used for the purpose of shorting. They replied they do not lend share out.
Note: I went into specific detail on the short being put against PMO in my question.
The above is interesting as if you look on PMO website ii hold (as I guess for many of us) a decent % of PMO shares.
Comments?
Point2
I would raise that I think Jen mentioned and Andyp on ADFN that I have found interesting and worthy of discussion:
COURTESY OF ANDYPOP1 ADFV, who kindly took the time to put down his prespective for me.
"The shorters are creditors, they know as part of the debt repayment the company will be issuing them shares as part payment for the monies owed so rather than wait to sell those shares in what could be a tsunami of creditor shares hitting the market at the same time they have opted to forward sell them by borrowing shares from a broker and selling them on. When they receive their shares from the company they hand them back to the broker and say thank you very much big Tone.
I'll give an example:

Mrs Melanie White is due to be given 1,000,000 shares with an equivalent value of 8p each as part payment for monies owed by Pugmier Oil.
Those shares are currently trading at 20p so safe in the knowledge the shares will be handed over in the next few months Melanie decides to approach a friendly broker, who just so happens to hold these shares in a nominee account, and asks if he would be willing to lend her 1,000,000 shares on the understanding she will give them back in a few months along with a fee for his troubles. Mr Broker agrees and hands the shares over to Melanie.
Melanie sells the shares on the open market over the following weeks for 20p each.
A few months pass and Melanie receives her 8p shares from the company and promptly gives them to the friendly broker with a few quid for his troubles.
The nominee account is back to where it should be and Melanie has got 20p for that portion of the debt as opposed to the open market price with up to 3b shares hitting the market at the same time."
Comments?
Is the reason for the short against GameStop or the failured short on Tesla, the reason for PMO's current short?
The debt structuring for PMO has been Incredibly complex and ARCM took advantage of it massively.
But what we can all agree on (following subsequent asset price reductions) is TD would have paid too much for the BP assets if they had gone ahead with it.

I will freely admit, I am way out of my depth I understanding the complexities of this deal and what will be the post merger price.
HE assets I belive are good, PoO is on the rise and $65 is a reasonable expectation end of 21.
Rgds Sft

When the 21 AGM, bit early to be canvasing, I know...but:
Wonder how much an ad costs (small one) in the FT or Times to ask for share holder support to remove Moody. Gofundme anyone....? The other papers may even run an article on how difficult it is to remove a piggy from the trough.
"Shareholders RKH, have in desperation taken out an ad in xxx.........."
If we get money from OM whats he going to do with all that cash? Another investment in Egypt, remodle
the office, trips to the FI's 1st class via Rio or Bogota, JV with Aramco, he could buy out Argos and get another salary? I can definitely seem him and Stu voting themselves another bonus for the win, they generally go for around 90k when there spending...errrrr sorry loose the money, must be worth 200k for them winning this...well after they have paid the lawyers. He knows he can do what he wants, some body keeps passing the resolutions.
They did not disclose voting figures this year because it must have been close.
Remember even if this sp does rise it will only be because of the lawyers winning or HE stepping up.
Its really dangerous letting this continue with Sam Sobel Moody troughing and leading us with his compass and map.

Rgds Sft

Rgds Sft

That would be a good fit: New asset with legs to expand.
Rgds Sft

I am not disagreeing, but sentiment is a powerful force: tesla and bit coin as a couple of examples.
Rgd Sft

I see Melqart and White box have increased their short again, courtesy of GS?
ARCM happy with their remaining %
PMO short showing to be above 12% ...could be more as ST do not track any that hold below 0.5%
Rgds Sft

Duster, you make a good point, had not considered it from that perspective.
Rgds Sft

That was my minor add:
21-Jan-21 16:03:25 155.501,351 Unknown* 2,101
So a few who have bought (see below) are not getting registered as BUYs.
Tomorrow will be the tell on how much profit people want.
GLA
Rgds Sft

Cheers Duster, trying to get a bottom of any retrenchment is not easy. Getting it right can be very profitable I.e. back at the start of covid 2020 I missed the bottom (back in too early) from the all markets low of approx. March 17th/22nd 2020 and that was a costly error in that I missed out in the greater % gains.
So you could be right in hanging back.
Will sell some small % of my more profitable shares if it heads as looks to head South as your charts and thoughts indicate.
MY thoughts are: I can not see that low due to vaccine, PoO, potential any time in Q1 for a deal to be announced, SHOULD hold it up??????
A deal fall through or new strain, not receptive to vaccines, are not part of my current considerations.

Kind Rgds Sft

Just added just over £2.1k @ 1.55
May be a bit early, but with Biden already reversing some of Trumps oil moves, hat IMO should bolster PoO recent gains.
Kistos investors looking to realise some profits after seeing such a gain here, which have been pretty decent, based just on faith in AA (correctly so) at present.
Its still a little way off before end of Q1, its just a question of how much profit do investor's want to take out either for reinvestment back in here or some where else. But let's be clear a deal is in the pipeline and then the sp will shift up another level.
PoO should be stable around $55 and gas is on the rise...we are already being told gas bills will go up an extra £90 for you average UK consumer.
LTH for Kistos. Wish I had more spare cash.
GLA
Rgds Sft

Interesting take on a possible scenario Arfur, could be applicable especially if there is an increase in automated sells.
Cheers rgds Sft

I would have thought that such a large amount of share being purchased in one go would have shifted the share price a bit more?
I can not fathom what makes it move. To date all I can guess at is the rise in PoO. In our case what is in the ground rather than our non production).
Navitas sp has been on a steady rise, it is though a producer, so that rise is to be expected.
That large buy and who, especially as there has been no RNS showing a change in voting rights for ii's already holding, is interesting.
We could guess its not any present bb poster
Could it be some one in the know on sensitive info. If one then there should be more. People always talk.
Is it RKH a director, doubt it that would result in a notification and we know the 2 little Piggy's track record.
In the absence of news it is at least something to speculate on.
GLA
Rgds Sft

Opps my error: RNS.
So this is not selling shares just lending correct?
Rgds Sft

Hi MANJUKWAI, how do you find the information that GS has lent out 11 million share?
Could you supply a link to the source? I ask not just to confirm the source but gain knowledge on how to find this type information.
Kind rgds Sft

Hi Rookie, I could see your logic; the actions of the Saudi's and the PoO movement was a bit of a surprise.
Despite not really knowing the numbers.
Jen has given some encouaging numbers, depending on share holders current average. I may be looking for too much of a positive in them but they seem reasonable to me.
Risk as has been said is the potential flood of shares coming onto the market, when the big fund companies are going green, but if we think other funds are not going to invest when there are profits to be had ...that may be a first.
My hope is those investors have got their fingers burnt on shale and will head back to traditional OnG reservoir types with known and clear (honest..ish) appraisal methods.
I do though think Harbour Energy as a company have a lot going for it:
Chryasor assets: Old but still producing financially and they are using the existing assets as platform as hubs for new subsea assets. Seems to be working well. With a relatively decent % spread on Joint ventures
PMO: Assets the ex Eon ( previous Shell) good fit with Chryasor, Elgin Franklin etc all producing (relatively) well, Catcher, good, Solan ( disaster for PMO, Harbour now got it for a song....oh the irony and as above further drilling may bring it up), Tax breaks very significant for HE, new assets Tolmount is gas and despite the part farm out still should be a financial win ( fingers crossed on start up and the ability to maintain expected reservoir pressure and deliverables), known potential developments of Zama, Sea lion and Vietnam ( not followed or really looked at that Asian asset).
Harbour energy debt consolidated, spare cash for: further drilling, BP assets? Sale of zama? Reserves in SL for development if oil holds above $60, the oil is of good quality and in demand more than WTI, Saudi or Russian oil.
Thats how I read it?
Summary: I remain a hold (-:
Rgds Sft

Hi Rookie, did you come back in? You seem more positive?
Rgds Sft

Hey Bladesman, the complication on the deal and being able to work out what the SP will be worth is beyond me.
The amount of shares that COULD come onto the market is a variable.
That it has remained around this level is the best I can hope for, for now.
What I still find interesting is this valuation back in June. So maybe this assesment is correct.
https://www.gurufocus.com/term/Book+Value+Per+Share/OTCPK:PMOIY/Book-Value-per-Share/Premier Oil
I agree a rise in PoO should have resulted in a on par increase in the SP BUT the merger and associated variables hold it down.
If the markets are being cautious becauae there is a potential downside, I am hopeing it is now built in?
GLA
rgds Sft

Asian markets very keen for brent crude: according to oil price news.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Asian-Buyers-Rush-To-Secure-North-Sea-Oil-After-Saudi-Surprise-Cut.amp.html

Could this indicate they see it going higher? Do they need the quality rather than WTI?
Markets possible see the end (all though a bit of a way to go yet) due to vaccines, possibley a step change in how the Saudi's are trying to resolve their financial stratagies...i.e. shale (done enough to slow it down & Biden) and better in the ground than too cheap?
As long as the banks keep lending people, espescially the Americans can l8ve with debt.

Ps: Any thoughts on HE going for an £80m million asset purchase ? Fits their previous MO.

Rgds Sft

I have a feeling they (HE) will go for the BP assets, reportedly £80 million now. Oven ready deal, with the number crunching done by PMO, bargin basement price...fits their past MO....do they spare cash?
There would at that price probabley be no carry from BP on the decom costs though.

Rgds Sft