Member Info for Surfit

Oh yes it is (it's behind you) a "realistic" possibility.
Considerations:
1. The company has stated it (dividends) as an aspiration.
2. Entry into 250 then 100?
3. Paying dividends would therefore securing larger institutional investors and aid maintaining existing.
4. The company is not PMO. So we have to move on from that companies mistakes.
Out of curiosity SK; what are you basing your rejection on?
Rgds Sft

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-23/premier-oil-to-re-emerge-on-u-k-market-just-as-crude-soars
Rgds Sft

Sorry last reported info on BP assets, speculated at 80mil
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/bp-relaunches-sale-of-north-sea-assets-premier-oil-gave-up-on/
Rgds sft

Looking at the PMO RNS on the 22nd, last paragraph
"......and the Combined Group therefore expects to retain the $175 million of cash that it may otherwise have needed to use to fund the Cash-Out Option."

Thats more than enough cash to buy the (last speculated 100mil) BP Andrew/ Shear water assets and leave some over for additional drilling to continue their hub expansion on existing assets or BP asset up grades.
But at that price (80mil) would they get all the decom liabilities. Probabley.
Not forgetting the massive tax tax relief that HE aquire from PMO. It could be a realistic option.
AND/ OR
95mil (OR 175 mill+ 300mil (guess) from a "potential" sale of Zama is that enough to fund (HE+RKH) SL?
Add Navitas?
They still need the UKEF or further FiG or another partner or increase in debt?

Lots of variables, I know. Any thoughts team LSE?

Rgds Sft

That would have been (was)a short interview.
Malky: Whats current Sam:
OM Results?: Errrrrr still waiting
OM award value?: Errrrrr still waiting
Navitas?: Errrrrr still waiting
FIG agreed to extention and HE take over?: Errrrrr still waiting
HE FID?: Errrrrr still waiting
How's the Bank balance: Oh that's great thanks, once we're out of lock down, going to take the family off on a well deserved break, probably Necker Island, Stewart and his family will be coming too. Should be great.
Malky: Errrrrrrrrr I meant the company's bank balance Sam.
Oooooooo crickey, not sure, let me find the cheque book....opppps think I left it at the travel agents.
Can I get back to you on that.
Look Malcy ol boy...things are great, Brents up to 65, or thereabout...that's more than enough for Seal Lion.
Malky: You mean Sealion
Yes yes of course that what its called, hahaha...oh by the way did you get the Fortnum & Mason hamper through? I hear you having a chat with that Northern champ....Doctor somebody, remember to put in a good word eh.

This was a direct recording from the stuffed Penguin ?? that sits in Sams office.
Note: Although the people are real some conversations may have been dramatised for effect.
Rgds Sft

Same process again, GS buys, loans to shorters.
Win win, GS are banking on it going up, earn some money loaning out, shorts get the best from their credit / PMO debt?
I think these lot know what they are doing i.e. this may not be their first rodeo.
We unfortunately can only react (for traders) a bit too late or as LTH hang on until the dust settles.
Rgds Sft

Hey Wallace, good info did not know that.
Looking into carbon capture, there has been attempts with both BP 2011 and the Shell at Peterhead..but searching about, was dropped, when the UK Gov dropped part of the funding.
Bacton would have a lot more reach and Indie would be the potential candidate. I think Leman is still operated by Shell.
Looking g about there seems to have been several attempts, but suspended due to not being g profitable enough.
For any interested the wiki link below is really worth a read:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacton_Gas_Terminal
In particular section: Two examples associated with Bacton are the Baird and the Deborah Gas Storage Projects.
Reading it interesting and like the Peterhead attempts these 2011/12 two were moth balled in 2013 due to lack of Goverment funding support.
Getting carbon neutrality is now LOT higher an agenda that it was then but after covid will HM Gov do as they are indicating and go for the REALLY HUGH spend to get us out of the just hugh debt?
Any way just all hypothesis and conjecture, but at least it something to consider and chat about while standby to standby.
Rgds Sft

Extract from company website:
...... Prior to RockRose, Andrew jointly founded IGas Energy PLC (“IGas”) in 2004 and developed it to become the leading onshore hydrocarbon producer in the UK, delivering natural gas and crude oil to Britain’s energy market. Andrew left IGas in 2015, having delivered partnerships with Total, GDF and Ineos. Prior to his tenure at IGas, Mr Austin spent six years in management and consulting roles with clean tech companies including Generics Group and Whitfield Solar.
.........The members of the Board intend to use their extensive collective experience and successful track records in the energy sector to identify and complete acquisitions and generate value through operational improvements......"
IMO exploration is not in their mo, to invest in that sector you would need a heavy background survey...to understand the viability of the investment, and its nature is high investment and high risk, so no.
Its gas, carbon capture, hydrogen ( https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-pipelines) or possibley wind.
Really can't wait to see what Kistos go for.
Rgds Sft

This IMO is the perfect fit for AA: too expensive to go alone for full purchase but the last comment is what I find interesting
"........A spokesman for Perenco said: “As part of an assessment of its future global investment priorities, Perenco is reviewing strategic options for the southern North Sea gas business, which may or may not lead to any divestments or new partnerships.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/192422/perenco-mulls-sale-of-southern-north-sea-fields/amp/

A % sale of the assets may give Perenco required finance's, to develop infrastructure and put Kistos right back in the game, in the right position, and a confirmed income....just have to keep an eye on those decom liabilities AGAIN, but maybe not IF AA AND Perenco want to get into carbon storage.
Reverse input from Perenco site at Bacton?
Kistos's 100million would help some what.
Rgds Sft

Hey Much,
Was looking around for assets that Kistos might be up for, below are not them.
But
AT a new and revised price Andrew/Shearwater might tempt HE
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/289843/bp-relaunch-north-sea-sale/amp/
Looks really cheap, especially if BP can wait a bit.
With PoO on the rise Zama will look good, but the Mexicans have to play ball....which could drag on?
IMO only
Rgds Sft

Strange will not let me put "****stan..."

****stan should have read ****stan. Not sure what happened with that?

Much, what you mention with regards geopolitical and finance security, is a ever increasing issue (imo) for operators. All that commitment and no surety that the country will honour a deal.
Just look at RKH small effort in Egypt. If you look a Total in Libya, Shell in Venezuela, Shell Nigeria, Total Mozambique (Islamist militants), ****stan (Islamist militants, no Western or US operators), BP with Russia....etc etc.
The world is becoming increasingly unstable...which we do not see improving...
So IF HE, know the have the support of HM Gov, then its a stable investment outside of the safety of the North Sea. What HE do with ZAMA will be the big signal. Again imo, if they sell that it is a signal of their
mistrust of such exposure, frees up cash, frees them of any Latino kick back from developing SL.
So I am thinking that would be resolved first, before any announcement of SL sanction.
Selling it fits well with their MO as well I.e. Snr operator.
As is being indicated, the world will need some new fields being developed. The US has its own back yard (GoM) and shale still...but...what of HE. The only fly in the ointment is if HE want to pick up BP's assets that PMO did not get...but again Zama has to go first.
ALL imo
Regards Sft

That why I find it strange we have such a large % sp movement, on such small number and size of buy/sells.
How does that happen? Looks like MM manipulation?
How do you get 8.54% rise on those trades?????
Rgds Sft

IMO something is rotten in the state of Denmark:
We get a jump of 8.54% on a VERY limited amount of buys and someone also pops up on ADFN stating an OM outcome.
MM's beating the cover, looking to get another 20%?
Just an observation, time will tell.
Rgds Sft

Lsetown,
I have a similar feeling.
Moggers post and links were VERY illuminating.
The government may well have supported the UKEF funding if the application had actually been submitted. PMO dragging their heels or kicking the can due to all their financial problems i.e. they did not have their part of the project funding to meet the UKEF criteria, is my guess.
I really think HE and Navitas will not be able to supply sufficient funds with out UKEF, so the remainder will have to come from somewhere.
I would like US investment: despite some posters confidence that the Argies will probably not cause further disruption, I still feel they retain some real support amongst the South American countries for their "Project Malvinas".
If HE sign in with Navitas then that is obvoiously a very important (especially in light of a higher probability of no UKEF) step.
I find it impossible now to think HE will go it alone.
The project will definitely need and additional funding source....
What gets me is the continual lack of information that we live on, from either PMO or Sobel Moody.
Let's hope Sobel and Stewart go for another 20% pay cut and no bonus (but will probably grab 100mil in shares in recompense)...as we may need (OM cash) more time..again.
GLA
Rgds Sft

Gusher do you have an exit price or will you be staying in for the dividend?
Rgds Sft

Additional comment: Remember Chyrasor got out of Solan, courtesy of PMO. That project the sunk PMO through lack of expected production, drop in PoO and inept debt structuring.
They now have Solan.
Harbour Energy will play this correctly and as you indicate if they rip up the Navitas contract and revert to previous, RKH need a lot more cash.
Note: due to poor contractual knowledge Sobel gave most of the Sea Lion sale cash back to PMO during FEED.
Mmmmmmmm
Rgds sft

Well summarised MarkdNbr1, weakness and ineptitude and greed has plagued RKH at the upper management level.
I will give Sobel Moody the credit for the initial efforts in developing the company, structuring the finance for the resultant Sea lion find. Thereafter, well it is as you have identified and the numbers on how much he has squandered (and paid himself and Stewart) is frightening, but its not his money he has put in.

I agree there is a real chance Navitas will not make the cut, but that would be if Harbour E do infact want to go it alone....Still not sure if HE want to make that financial commitment. I continue to look at Quad 204 as a similar project and BP had significant partners adding to the funding ( Partners, BP 36%; Shell 44% Siccar Point Energy 10%, Chryasor bought 10% off Shell at some point)
Note: I think that is the current structuring, hard to find current +2019 data)

So if it is not Navitas then who? I just do not see HE putting up the cash for it all, its too much for a company that size.
Rgds Sft

GS's share changes (latest and previous RNS's) seem to coinside with changes with shorts via Melqart or White box
Rgds Sft