Member Info for Surfit

Quite an interesting artical
http://graphics.wsj.com/oil-barrel-breakdown/

Rgds Sft

Hi Stevo, agree on decom but where are the figure for 40% more?
Another source is saying:
"The PAU has said the total cost of the plan will be $20 billion. The total cost of EACOP is expected to be around $3.5bn, with banks expected to stump up $2.5bn...."
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/pipelines-africa/313843/uganda-tanzania-oil-fid/amp/
Good point on the transportation costs: Uganda will have to pay a % to Tanzania
What I have never asked myself is, where point of sale is from an FPSO...I had assumed it was from there but then probably not i.e. in that you can't just have any tanker turning up!
Rgds Sft

Big oil back to investing: Assessing not only Uganda Staying stable but Tanzania too.
"The final investment decision on a US$5.1-billion project involving French oil giant Total in Uganda is expected to be announced as soon as on Sunday, Bloomberg quoted Uganda National Oil Company as saying late on Thursday.
The project for tapping more than one billion barrels of crude oil in Uganda and transporting them out of the landlocked African country to an export terminal in neighboring Tanzania has seen several delays in recent years, due to changes in partnership structure and protracted negotiations with the Ugandan government on the deal......"

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Totals-5-Billion-Uganda-Project-Set-For-Imminent-Go-Ahead.html

How does our investments versus return compare...quite well I think.

Rgds Sft

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/coast-and-sea/tide-tables
Rgds Sft

Holiday in the alps SK? Oh very nice.
Rgds Sft

Nick, check out an old post
https://www.sharecast.com/amp/news/aim-bulletin/rockhopper-stock-surges-as-it-welcomes-navitas-to-sea-lion-cadre--7214120.html
Rgds Sft

"......that is required for financial support for sanction"
Rgds Sft

The Navitas share price has sustained a steady rise (20.4%) since 21st March. This rise weathers the recent PoO fluctuations and an overal +80% gain since low of March.
Still very quiet and carrying decent debt.
Are they really going to make the grade that is required for financial support for sanction.
Lots for the HR team to work over.
Rgds Sft

Hello FLI,
"I think rkh is more risker than Arg at the moment.
The above comment interests me, could you please expand.

I ask as I am unsure if ARG have farm in partners, FEED completed and of course any PROVEN reserves.
Could you remind the BB how many share you have with ARG...I seem to remember it's quite considerable.
Rgds Sft

Hey Godders, true but none of us here are blatantly ramping, posters are exploring theoretical pros and cons...and in doing so credit or discredit those "theorys"
We are all in it, as you are, but are trying to explore /look for potential. We could all just throw in a winge on every post, but we ALL know that feeling already.
Kind rgds Sft

Hi Stevo, can not fault your comments.
In particular I like your thought process with regards the write off being a possible indicator.
I am particularly interested on what they do with their remains cash and as you say bp's assets are an easy target. My concern is proven reservoir growth balanced against decom liabilities. May be the NS will remain their default safe option.,..but outside of that I think the risk for other international assets too high.
As you, I and all understand they do not need to rush in on a SL......the mitigation is spreading the burden further...and if it was UKEF supported (looking unlikely now) it would have fitted the criteria of "HM Gov support" ideally.
As usual we spend our time on healthy speculation.
Whilst sitting with no influence, but some hope.
GLA
Rgds Sft

I still feel HE will also need some real assurances from HM Gov, we know the Argentinians are going to go banzai over it. How that assurance manifests itself is still to be determined.
Rgds Sft

Not many oven ready Stevo, just look at the trouble Total are having with Mozambique (LNG)
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/unseen-pictures-show-carnage-of-islamic-state-attack-that-killed-british-man-in-mozambique-12265947
Senegal / Mauritania project for BP
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/mauritania/terrorism
Invest in Egypt, Iran, Iraq, ****stan, Kurdistan, Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, carry their own troubles.
Some smaller potential in Asia, but are they going to own it all and the deal with potential local issues.
South America the same as we can see with Mexico as a shining example.
Australia: Chevron after the union /environmental issues overan their Gorgon project into the sum of multiple of billions,reported they will never invest there again.
Yes maybe there are plenty of smaller investments to be had...but if after the amount spent on FEED and the potential opportunities, combined with PoO.......
If HE do not go for it, they will never have such an opportunity again.
Unless they want to do more exploration and then FEED and then develop somewhere safer and more stable...????? and we really seem to be running out of such places rather increasingly and rapidly.
All my opinion of course.
They (Harbour + Group) may decide its too big: they will remember Solan and I still belive they are one investor short, unless Navitas stump up more.
Q3/Q4 21 or Q1 22 is definitely going to be interesting.
GLA
Rgds Sft

https://www.falklands.gov.fk/more-information/getting-here/
Rgds Sft

If you look around Central/ South America its becoming increasingly difficult to deal with the local governments (exception is Guyana, for now).
I really and increasingly belive HE will look at Mexico as too risky. Where as Boris has already stated the Falklands fate will remain in British hands for as long as the Islanders want it so....and I can't see any Argentinians getting residency.
The investment in FEED is too much to walk away from IF PMO have completed a accurate assessment.
HE as has been stated will be going over FEED with a fine tooth comb and that and renegotiating with suppliers and contractors will take some time, I am now starting to feel as others have thought it could be a year, but hope it could be end of 21 for sanction and then procurement and drilling.
For info if anyone wants to refresh themselves on The Complete Guide To FID’s this is worth a read:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Complete-Guide-To-FIDs.amp.html
Rgds Sft

Mr Magic, the mandatory controls you detail, as you say could be the REAL short /medium term issue.
AND point of joining and disembarkation will also be restricted as countries may change rules in a moment.
The present 2 days (isolation) ONLY apply if its from depart/ arrive back in the UK.
So your assessment looks to be on point.

Rgds Sft

I might add, once on-board we do not wear masks.
Its an interesting point regarding flu: It use to be a nightmare on crew change (every 2 weeks) 50% change out. Normal trip duration 28 days.
But since covid...no ones had flu.
The main introduction was no hand shaking and very regularly cleaning hands I.e. stations on each level, at entery exit on lifts and a big one very regular cleaning of hand rails.....but I stress a vessel of 90; project and crew IS NOT a cruise ship passenger level so the chances to remain a lot higher.
Its not going to be easy for sure.
Still I belive manageable but not with excursions. IMO.
The quote regarding using face coverings out side of cabins is the biggest blow for attracting customers back imo
Rgds Sft

Hi Mr Magic, I work offshore on vessels and we have been very successful on preventing Covid coming aboard...but that has included:
1. 2 days (initially a week) in a hotel in isolation, then a covid test prior to boarding.
2. Not a allowed ashore.
3. No personnel from onshore allowed on to the vessel
, Acception are the pilots who are required to pass through the vessel and up to the bridge to guide vessel in to ports.
4. No interaction with marine crew and shore side for resupply.
Not all vessels have kept it at bay.
So I would say IMO: the only way, for some time, will be no shoreside excursions, to prevent it being brought on-board. All passengers and marine will have to have been vaccinated.
Will people go for a cruise that does not include visits to locations? Just wining, dining, entertainment (shows/musicals etc etc), sun and company....after all this yes I do.
If the companies focus on entertainment it will be back a lot quicker than we think.

The age group is older (not getting any younger), and its been a VERY restrictive time for them.
I have several older neighbours with disposable income and they can't wait.
Emerald makes some good points, re flights.
Just my opinion, of course.
Rgds Sft

I've now used up my free allocation, they are asking me to subscribe. Newbies, should get to read if you go to home page.
Rgds Sft

Energy Voice Report positive feelings from the markets.
Encouraging, very encouraging.
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/312037/harbour-energy-future-go-to-oil-investors/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Daily%20Newsletter%202021-04-02&utm_term=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Newsletter
Combined with Moggers article.
Dare we dream to hope.
GLA
Rgds Sft