Member Info for Surfit

$5 move from 70 to 75 equals 7.14% change.
HBR share price move in a month 12.9% change.
Still wish management had not done the 20:1 but its of no interest to EIG as they were NOT taking their returns via share growth previously.
It's only us 5%'ers and the creditors that ARE interested.
PoO does not want to go much above $75, no one trusts that it will not fall back, but are there really enough projects getting developed to catch up with the last 4-5yrs of under development in traditional oil AND lack (pleasingly) of new investment in shale
GLA.
Rgds Sft

PoO looking stable, and at the decent price 70-73, Gas up for winter although it's reported that NordStream 2 come online in October. Tolmount should be comming on line soon, not sureabout the current status of Elgin and Catcher are they both back in production?
Out of interest SK what is your buy trigger to get back into trade, is it just PoO, fluctuations or do you look at what's actually happening with HBR? Do you know if catcher and Elgin are up?
Rgds sft

Here's a thought instead of Navitas, what if Moody had approached CNOOC Petroleum?
EXXON did not mind sharing their Stabroek Block offshore Guyana with them, so maybe HBR (EIG)could strike a deal.

Do not think the Argie would impose sanctions on CNOOC? Although you never know when it come to them.
If I was Moody I would be having some private (let it slip out into the public domain) talks to introduce some incentive in to this debacle. Trouble is Moody and the BoD are just not very good at this game, So would probable stuff it up.

NOTE: The US and Chinese are back on talking terms, so it appears
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Rebounds-On-US-China-Call.amp.html

Speculations and musings only.
Rgds Sft

"(Bloomberg) --Gazprom PJSC is planning to start flowing natural gas through one of the world’s most controversial pipelines next month, according to people with direct knowledge of the company’s plan.

The Russian gas giant wants to begin shipping the fuel through the first leg of the Nord Stream 2 link to Germany on Oct. 1..........."

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/9/8/russias-gazprom-seeks-to-start-nord-stream-2-gas-flows-on-october-1

Is it my mobile, but I seem to have lost the old bb system.
Must be an "up grade" from LSE.
Rgds Sft

Neptune Is Said to Consider Merger With Rival Harbour Energy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-07/neptune-said-to-mull-merger-with-5-billion-rival-harbour-energy

Rgds Sft

Not a bad little write up regarding the current state of play regarding HBR's (PMO's) "other" investment play.
Chryasor really have extended their reserves thanks to PMO.
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/talos-trying-to-resolve-zama-controversy-through-notice-of-dispute/?utm_source=offshoreenergytoday&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_2021-09-07

If Talos's "Notices of Dispute" does not work then its arbitration there after.
But at least Talos has driven FEED through. I have still yet to see any "drive" from HBR post merger, although still relatively early.
All VERY quite though, something has to give soon.
Rgds Sft

For anyone interested, this artical is from 2019 but still worth a read regarding turnaround times, costs and pros and cons regarding FPSO'S
AND the feeling BEFORE covid, but also before shale had its legs trimmed (hopefully that remains so).

EXTRACT.....
......"Faster deployment times
From the initial discovery, an FPSO can be rolled out and begin operating in a field in under a year. Compare this with permanent facilities which can take significantly longer - a jack-up rig could be 2-3 years to build and a semi-submersible rig can take as long as 3-4 years........"
https://www.nesfircroft.com/blog/2019/02/exploring-the-growth-of-the-fpso-industry

Addtional Note:
According to a January 2020 EIA report, the average price of Brent crude oil in 2019 was $64 per barrel compared to $71 per barrel in 2018. The average price of WTI crude oil was $57 per barrel in 2019 compared to $64 in 2018.

So if we can maintain an average of 65-70 on PoO moving forward the numbers should stack up for HBR and any potential partners.

Regards Sft

Morning LTT, hope all is well.
Navitas were getting a lot for the cash input, but obviously never signed into it anyway. That was the joke, fan fare for new partner, but please wait until we can find people to find the cash, only then can we sign on the dotted line. A signature would change a lot though.
Another like, as you say, Tulos or Cairn would be required and fit the bill, we need oilers not banks lending money I.e. as PMO found out banks can sell the debt to companies like ARCM (Hong Kong)

Wonder how long FEED review takes, what has to be remembered is that can be expensive.
Consider this: is the any one team from Chryasor suitably skilled and experienced to do such all will have their own jobs to do currently.
So are you hiring new people in, not heard of big recruitment drive in Aberdeen?
OR
Are you going to trust ex PMO personel to do it,
OR
Will they have to bring in external auditors?
A full review will be expensive, more costs.
I really can't remember what the total FEED costs are to date
Note: Something really crazy...does any one have the figure and a link to that cost anywhere?
BUT an auditor will look at the money spent and you can bet that they will charge accordingly.
All reconfirmed FEED would then get presented first to the HBR BoD's, then probably EIG, then finally onto Navitas and other perspective investors.

Add buying/taking over RKH, at what 160mil? (35p wishing so). Its all getting even more expensive.

My guess we will hear nothing of significance until Jan/Feb 22 at the very best.
Then another year for drilling / project set up equipment procurement.
When's the Deep harbor getting finished? More vessels mean more fuel bunkering will be essential.

A lot to do and it's all very very quiet.
Rgds Sft

Hey LTT,
My opinion is, HBR will not go it alone; way too much of a financial risk. So they must have more than 1 other partner (RKH do not count), if Navitas can raise their part of the deal. Will HBR think the Navitas/PMO deal the right one, that could be subject to renegotiation.
I have in the past used Quad 204 (West of Shetland) as a similar project.
The split was with 3 other operators: 2 being heavy weights Shell and BP. Ironically HBR are now also a 10% partner in the asset.
What Navitas continue to have is no exposure to any Argentinian potential to sanction.
Interestingly Argentina do not have full support on their stance I.e. Chile. and I think the Zama debacle may actually be helping the SL cause in putting off further investments with South American countries I.e. Mexico, Brazilian corruption or Venezuela and what they done to Shell.
Talos could be a good fit, they also have FPSO experience. I have not looked too closely at their debt ( currently approx 1 billion) , structuring and income but at current prices and levels of production, they should be paying it off.
Rgds Sft

Looks like a complicated deal but proves, banks are willing to lend and companies can raise such capital, rather than blow it:
"Nine banks provide financing to BW Offshore for Barossa FPSO.
FPSO operator BW Offshore has completed the $1.15 billion project debt financing for the construction and operation of the FPSO for the Santos-operated Barossa gas field....."

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/nine-banks-provide-financing-to-bw-offshore-for-barossa-fpso/?utm_source=offshoreenergytoday&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_2021-09-02

More projects getting off the ground, and that is in Australian waters where Labour (Union influence) costs add significantly to projects. For sure the FPSO will not being being built in Oz but more Subsea FPSO projects getting Sanction. Dear old blighty led by miss-management as usual.
Rgds Sft

I have to comment Godders, I do not wish to be (too) insulting but I was more than disappointed that you could not galvanise your assets and support Glen+ in what we were trying to do earlier. Your shares could have pushed us across the line in getting some resolutions put forward, JUST to vote on.
You state you have a significant share holding but could not put the effort in to coraling Moody.
I find it now VERY frustrating listening to your every complaint AND knowing lack of support.
Sft

I agree with you Ovets, but remember back in the day all RKH could find to invest in SL was PMO (in the end) and that was pre-COP26 etc etc. Land scape very different.
I.e. All RKH has is the licence, and seeing how good Moody and Co are on contracts, all HBR need to do is talk to FiG alone. .....maybe? HBR in my opinion are pretty ruthless...as is expected of an reasonably successful oil company.
Again all speculative musings.
All I see is the likes of Brazil, Norway, China and other state like run (or supported) companies freely investing.
But SL development is essential for FiG, and its (as we all think) on a count down for acceptance and funding.
Rgds Sft

I think we all know UKEF funding is impossible, it's the full HM GOV support outwidth of that, that is essential (as has been debated).
If you look at Chryasor and PMO development of Solan, HBR have some experience on seeing development failure consequences, the main being actual end production returns not being what was anticipated. HBR also be FULLY scrutinising the old RKH drill results, PMO stuffed up with 88e at a cost of $23mil. HBR will want to know they are building on firm results.
I am not sure I fully agree that they HAVE to look at internationally for growth, money is money and if its safe and cheap UK assets may have some significant interest, buying local has not failed them to date and the big boys want out.
Not saying your wrong, just trying to put small weights on both (multiple) scales.
Southern gas fields are looking attractive imo
Let's bug Linda's Office.
GLA
Rgds Sft

Re "Investors if interested......"
Meaning those PMO creditors that what to remain invested and not exit once having obtained their acceptable return after taking a cash and or share options after the merger.
They are very (I would expect) different to EIG in their expected investment and return strategies. EIG being in the Energy investment sector?????
Rgds Sft

Hey LTT, To detail a bit more:
If we refer back to HBR April 21 investors presentation page 14 Titled : A Platform for Future Growth, the pie chart details Sealion as 36% of their total "Group 2C Resources2" in comparison to UK AND Norway being 41% and Mexico 10%.
Investors if interested must be asking the same questions but as ever their main share holder as when they were Chryasor is EIG (now at 36% ownership, rather than the xx% when Chryasor) will have significant (imo) influence on the investment strategy.
On paper Sea Lion is very very important, I belive it still hinges on HMGovs support (not funding but Argie factor) as well as the crucial numbers.
If they have Gov support following the Argi diplomatic / sanction resultant fall out, its"appears" to be a safer investment than the overseas options. Or do they remain as they have in the pre PMO assets and maintain slow and steady acquisitions in the UK/Norsk or even NL OnG area.
Perenco Southern North Sea (Bacton Gas site assets) or even Shells OneGas assets (UK and NL) looks like a safe and potential buys. Although carrying g hi decom costs if not considering carbon capture as part of the plan.
Just thoughts.
Rgds Sft

Wonder how many personnel are working in the new prestigious offices.
Interesting to note it is approximately a 2hr drive from the old london office to the "new" offices.
Was it closer to all the directors homes, are they in everyday, who and what positions do any other employees hold? Or is it a company of directors, secretaries and cleaning lady?
In HBR must we hope. Navitas up date from HBR hopefully in September.
GLA
Rgds Sft

Oxford dictionary actual definition
Plural noun: conspiracy theories
"a belief that some covert but influential organization is responsible for an unexplained event"

HBR: Another bb getting subjected to unwelcome posters. Please stick to company information not what you wish to talk about. Members come here for company relevant information. True its a free world,and always good for people to express their opinions, but your posts are off topic and more specific to your own agendas and not specific to hbr. It's a bit like have gate crashers at a members party (not much currently to enjoy admittedly).
Respectfully Sft
GLA

Thanks for all the non HBR information, always nice to listen to people's personal political opinions on a Harbour Energy bb
Also "really" interested in your comments:
".........Hydroxychloroquine And ivermectin for covid and now guess what is showing the best results?blowing the quackzines out the water....."

Interested to understand what you mean by that statement I.e. are you saying best /better "results" than astrazeneca????
A link would be appreciated.
Rgds Sft

"The Argentine congress is restless and is concerned since the Falkland Islands started to build its new deep water port, fearing, besides the usual cacophony of claims, that the Islands could replace Ushuaia as the main access to Antarctica......."

https://en.mercopress.com/2021/08/19/argentine-congress-fearful-falklands-new-port-could-overshadow-ushuaia
(From 19th August)

Rgds Sft