Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Hey Ianfer,
I agree, something has to give soon and the next RNS gas project relevant, will (imo ONLY) give us a clue on what was the hang up.
As CHAR reportedly informed (remember that leaked report by a journalist, wish I had kept the link) that delays in closing out goverment departmental requirements, will have a knock on affect on booking drill rigs and equipment procurement.
AND
Morroco need the gas! But something is obviously proving RATHER sticky???
It will of course give at some point, but CHAR needed to be sure they are not precived as financially weak.
I am sure an extra dollar per gas supply is worth A LOT of money.
GLA
Keep the faith
Rgds Sft
Hey ICB88,
I do not feel I was shot down, you and DBC disagree with my thoughts, so? That's what a good board is about. I did not feel both your inputs required any responses ?
That people choose a particular way of putting that disagreement across reveals (imo) more about them than me. And I am sorry my little tickle up set up you, I thought it quite a funny response to a typical type of insult.
Re the cash flow required well I worked out an estimated burn rate of 1.5m and was hoping to see if others would have a look. I looked though the previous RNS and had a go at it. I know Jim is more ( and better) numbers man.
I was of course not expecting others, that just sit back and do not attempt research and that are not interested in such, to do so. Illuminating.
Again as I have said in the past I am very interested in attempting to understand the potential paths CHAR go down, as its an OFI ( opportunity for improvement) and learning.
We have different styles of investing obviously, but I am heavily invested in CHAR, based on gas potentials. Am disappointed that they refinanced to include FEED as I did not see that comming and having mistakenly belived others statements that they are well financed to farm in ( I did not look deep enough at the runway remaining the time). This led to an average up, where as it would have been obvious another raise (3 in total, I belive) would result in share dilution and I should have held off ( I recently averaged down, when it reached 11.x.3p, came in after bottom at around 12.3p).
That they did decide to complete FEED before attempting FID is not to say a bad thing, as I know of a previous investment that got ripped off by the farminee/operator to the tune of 10's of millions.
All a good (expensive though) OFI for future investments with different companies.
Again apologies, if it all sound like ramblings but I hope it at least gives you some idea on the discussions: project Ideas, attempt a reasoning and assess where right or wrong.
Of course if not interested, your not interested: Quite frankly Scarlet.....
All the best Sft
" .......OF course IF the onshore is included in the OFFshore Farm in then CHAR will only use the partner renumeration cash....for operational and Hydrogen/ renewables "development"
Note: Again I belive the onshore income will/could be earmarked for company costs and operational related development directly for the other pillars ( longer term ability to generate returns) and the OFFshore generative income to build company strength cash security (even, reaching for stars dividend and share buy backs). Over 4-5yr period?
What needs to be avoided is a share consolidation. NOT in any way muted I clearly state, but I saw this with Harbour energy, and was not done well.
Rgds Sft
Hey Nick,
I still belive the sticking point must be the final determination of the price paid for the gas supply. Its something that should/could have been resolved a lot earlier and would have required an RNS to notify the markets.
With out the final price being agreed it would in my opinion then possibly be a bottle neck on the signing of farm in / FID then finally a sanction RNS? The gas price must (as I see it) be announced first?
IT could be that just before the conferences it is announced as it would be a good announcement for the Morrocan goverment to disclose (directly after a RNS of course).
Morroco will want it as cheap as possible and of course CHAR /Partner or (unlikely) seperate financing will want as good a price as possible.
I am assuming this based on the confirmed supply quantity that Morroco have asked for will not be based on international prices, something that is not the case in the UK domestic gas (and oil) production.
AND the reason why CHAR needed more cash to keep operational, put under the umbrella of the onshore exploration cash raise. As before the hope is (essential) that the farm in cash repayment (offshore drilling and FEED) includes sufficient cash to complete exploration, testing, FEED, FID, Sanction and develop to production the onshore side. IF CHAR as I think will NOT include the onshore with in the farm in OFFshore.
That is why I remain very interested in cash runway. Unlike other that appear to deem it irrelevant.
Why commence onshore exploration with out knowing what your REAL return will be.
It may be deemed as "ramblings and deramping" š but financing seems "rather important" for a company.
Especially when we remain minimum 1.5yrs away from ANY cash generative income.
OF course IF the onshore is included in the OFFshore Farm in then CHAR will only use the partner renumeration cash.
A few variables remain.
All of which I find interesting.
GLA
Rgds Sft
It's good that we all do different calculations and debate, part of what's great about a good and useful bb.
ICB888 financial assessment is " very soon the deal will be announced (by mummy and daddy) with a partner (Daddys friend) who will give CHAR a large amount of cash" of course being 15 helps in his detailed assessment š.
GLA
Rgds Sft
Hi whimax, what did you calculate the remaining balance in July, OBVIOUSLY I know its not zero, but there is I would assume????? a minimum cash threshold at which they do not wish to go under?????
TO help you out its a bit like making sure your own bank balance still has enough to pay for your out goings like shopping, electricity, direct debits, and in CHARS case instead of the monthly Disney subscription they have renewable partnership expenses, studies, water company salination production? Employee wages, directors wages etc etc
Hi Jt2017, my approximations were based on and from financial updates, ref RNS 21/06/23 June 2022 Final Results and I was looking at RNS 24/09/22 H1 2022 Results.
Would appreciate yours or ANYONE else's workings, I am sure there are a lot of investors on here doing similarly appraisals....anyone? Whimax, ICB888 I could be wrong so your or Jim's cross calculating would be appreciated. But only if you think its of ANY relevance of course.
Kindest Rgds Sft
Hi ICB888,
Sorry if you think they are rambling deramps, could you help me out as I was using RNSs (do you know what they are?) on time scales and tryng to look at some realities.
As YOU KNOW when we are getting the cash could you say when "very soon" is please?
I need that to balance the finances and try some fiscal planning?
Kindest Sft
Hi Jim,
Thank you for partly confirming. Greatly appreciated.
So 3x 4 =12million from 19 leaves us 7 divided by 1.5 gives us 4.6 months? From August?
Let's now drill down a bit (sorry could not help that) further:
How long do we think a 4 well drilling campaign will take?
Anchois (RNS's)
18th Jan 2022 completion of offshore drilling
20th June 2022 announced start of FEED
20th July 2022 announced completion of CPR (6 months crickey, but worth the wait).
8th March 2023 END of FEED (9 months) "largely completed by the Subsea Integration Alliance team"
Included: Three initial subsea producer wells, Subsea infrastructure ("SURF" and "SPS"), Onshore central processing facility ("CPF") and Onshore gas pipeline to deliver the gas to the anchor gas offtakers via the Maghreb Europe Gas Pipeline ("GME").
Engineering, Procurement and Construction ("EPC") COMMENCED.
10th July "Onshore suprise (another) Fund raise, (not included all the other fund raises since Jan 2022)
1st of August signed ONSHORE licence
18th Sept RNS on the electricity share at a shopping centre in South Africa .
Question: Did CHAR BoD confirm EPC completion on offshore project, not sure?
Any one on any ideas how long it takes to complete 4x drilling Onshore, the 6months CPR/ start of ONSHORE FEED, completion, EPC, FID and Sanction, development and hot tap into Onshore pipeline.
(Jim any ideas on time scale?)
All the best Sft
So.ething to consider and if your bored use Predators experiences and costs to compare 3 onshore drills.
We raised $19million on the two recent placings for the "onshore drilling campaign" (AND TO keep us SOLVANT during ongoing negotiations GAS CONTRACT PRICE CONFORMATION and FARM IN).
CHAR Burn rate (I belive) approx $1.5million per month.
CHAR have stated 3 million per well, I think (really need to sit down at PC and start correlating ALL per
Now if we look at Predetors drilling campaign on MOU-1, MOU-3 and MOU-4 they estimated $5 to $6 million for originally 2 wells but then also had to do a an addtionl Ā£7million placing for "The net proceeds of the Placing will be used for completion of an extended rigless testing programme for MOU-1, MOU-3 and MOU-4, commencement of CNG development studies and tendering for long lead items, residual MOU-4 well costs and general working capital"
Ref RNS 31 Jul 2023 RNS Number : 7899H
Now if you go back further to 17 Mar 2022 07:00
RNS Number : 0567F
They continually raised capital before (survey work) and this was for (above) was for building the drill pads
There were other raises after, I have not gone through it all.
Jim, your a numbers and drilling/ wells guy, how do you think Predators total 3x drilling costs add up to what CHAR have raised ($19mil) plus are Burn rate and how do you think total costing to drill, CPR, surevy overland pipe line route, FEED, FID, Sanction, build hot tap in and get to production for onshore project....do you think we have enough?
My thoughts are CHAR need to be VERY close to signing of on the OFFSHORE side or we will be too short within 2 month to run the onshore project all the way through on the current raise I.e. it will be eaten up by Burn rate???
Thoughts
Kindest Sft
If you are building a wind farm in the North Sea there are contracts: site survey, wind analysis/power generation for equipment type, site clearance and seabed conformations, cost of development vs expected energy generation and sales to customer.
I remain confused because CHAR are not presenting financials in any form.
Who would be investing in Chariot Energy's renewable and Hydrogen aspirations as a STAND ALONE investment. ALL investors here presently ONLY came in via Oil speculation drilling or belatedly the gas find.
Anyone please correct me if you invested for the renewables "pillers"????? Taking out the gas side out of it????
Again not being too negative, that is to say the two recent 6% ers may have more knowledge (private investor communications) with the the BODs?????
BUT the 2 other pillars are NOT presented as an investment opportunity if that was CHAR alone...the SP would be then be
Hello Jim, thank you for thoses comments. The conformation of a new Geo team and assessment techniques has been a highly crucial change for the company fortunes.
Gives significant assurances that the 80-85% is accurate for the onshore exploration success.
I am still left thinking that the delays we are experiencing are hinged on the final gas prices to be paid? I.e. holding back the farm in (or self financing, which is looking HIGHLY unlikely) in sign off(s)
As before prices can not have been signed of as an RNS would be required to be issued if they had.
Thoughts?
Rgds Sft
Hey Jimmy, I joined after the Anchois drilling campaign announcement.
Am I right in accessing the following:
Repsol had walked on Anchois-2, but CHARs geo team convinced the company's BoD that this was worth going for. Following the dusters in Nambia AP actually invested his own money on pursuing that assessment (recouped in repayment later) which totally saved the company.
Question 1: is that correct?
Question 2. DID CHAR change the geo team that assessed Nambia (fail) to those that assessed Anchois-2?
My feeling is there must have been a step change within the team or the assessment programme?
I ask because I would like to have it confirmed that they had sacked the crippling Namibia team and if the Anchois-2 team are new they really have found a special team.
Note: invested in Kistos and there drilling has failed dramatically.
Rgd Sft
Hey KB,
It's going to happen (Gas) that is inevitable. I belive that it's down to negotiations as said by BoDs (AP) but I really think the late sign off on the gas contract has some thing to do with it (pivotal) for CHAR and the farm in operator (and/or financing).
I still belive the Morrocan Gov will have a hugh influence in this. It can not have been signed off as if it had and the information not put out in the form of an RNS (information sensitive to markets) the the board would be at fault:
"General disclosure of price sensitive information
11. An AIM company must issue notification without delay of any new developments which
are not public knowledge concerning a change in:
its financial condition;
its sphere of activity;
the performance of its business; or
its expectation of its performance,
which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a substantial movement in the price of its
AIM securities"
https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/aim-rules-for-companies.pdf
Again project equipment supply or costs )farm in partners must agree) etc etc could be a factor for farm in but more likely for the Sanction stage.
Of course my speculations, but better having a discussion and consideration for discussions than say...Barking at the moon š
Kind Rgds Sft
Remember a lot of what AA and Kistos business plan for investors was
" The Group is confident that domestic offshore gas has a vital role to play as a transition fuel both in the Netherlands and in the UK and will be imperative in carbon reduction in the coming years. Already a low carbon producer of natural gas, Kistos is well-placed to build on its existing position and has COMMITTED to explore more sustainable ways to develop existing assets. The Q10-A platform, which generates electricity from renewable energy sources and produces gas with minimal Scope 1 emissions, will serve as a blueprint for future projects" and combined with the sucess of Rockrose when gas was priced really low and know one wanted gas AA became the investor darling
Well that ethos has now (aquired an oil asset) GONE so have some/many investors been required to exit (investing ethics) also, as we are now in oil production?
Combined with the failed explorations, tax and a ridiculously misjudged attempt to aquire Sercia Energy the share incentive scheme will not be implemented for some time now as I am sure those targets are way off.
Tough times for AA and the team and combined with what and who is AA going to sell this Kistos set up to?
Still these prices are getting ridiculously low.
I will be getting back in as soon as I can, sell my earlier speculation buy on GKP.
Rgds Sft
Hi Vetran,
Traders will always trade.
I was speaking with another private investor the other day and we were both tempted to sell some (after bought more at 12.2p on the drop) and after this recent rise, as we both had seperately "suspected" there could be a retrace BUT with the daily potential for the required RNSs to drop at any point (or in 2-3 months! š¤·āāļø) neither of us had the minerals š or such a significant amount that we wanted to risk that for the 10% "potential" return.
Speculations on here are speculation born on thoughts and previous experiences...... and those experiences can not be relied on to always be repeated.
If only I had invested in Teslas even after the share split!
Let's hope management have actually secured a really good deal with the new partner(s) and for gas contracts....but I imagine the gas contracts have to be signed first AND that it has not been is strange imo..what is the delay? Just that single RNS on it own de risks as it also brings in the ability to finance.
So that has to be confirmed BEFORE the farm in is confirmed/ signed.
Subsea equipment deliverable, drilling and CPF equipment time lines also need to be confirmed to the farm in partner too. IMO.
But the gas sale should be announced, the partner THEN FID then sanction.
DYOR (not sure how many do actually do though).
Rgds Sft
I think Whimax, may have been on the money with an earlier speculation: on it probably falling back following the initial buying after a brokers report and the drop below 14p.
With out an RNS(s) on farm in and gas contracts to rerate/derisk then its just dropping back to 14p again. Which is what the market values the gas in the ground (no value on the other pillars as there are no income returns only costs associated with them) coupled with the billion plus shares and 1.5million per month costs.
Just have to sit tight.
GLA
Rgds Sft
Latest Broker ratings 480.00
Previous
30-May-23 Berenberg Bank Buy 630.00
26-Apr-23 Berenberg Bank Buy 630.00
Personally bit surprised at 480.00 at the moment certainly for 2023, we may though start to get a regain as winter approaches.
AA has had to massively change Kistos's direction due to Russia (his Co2 negative gas production direction is not relevant as a price point) the UK/NL new WFT tax regimes (not included in the original financing structure), the very expensive commercial drilling fails (NL and Benriach), the long term production issues for West of Shetland (and therefore the Shetland gas plant), the purchase cost of Mime which is a complete turnaround for oil was never his plan (this may also loose investors I.e. gas was okay oil not?). Despite the above Mime looks to have be the only good move available, primarily for reserves growth but a more stable (Norske) tax regime with still good off sets for development.
Note: I am not sure how good the offestes are for the massive drilling costs incurred in GB/NL?
So the SP growth obviously depends a lot on the 15,000 boe/d in projected for 2025 ONCE the Jotun FPSO is on production and good oil prices of course.
But Russia will be mostly out (not including China freely buying or the massive amount of underground mixing and reselling ongoing in the back ground. Also remember Venezuela, Libya and Iran our mostly out of the picture BUT NOT forever.
I wonder now on what is his Sell aspirations now and to whom. In my opinion it has to be in under 2 years. Is that feasible and will Kistos have enough production to sell on to a another and who will that be.
AA is definitely not going in a renewable direction which is what was the original Kistos intimated as being a significant part of their original business statement.
Has he lost some of his larger investor / supporters. The failed take over did nothing for his business reputation either.
IMO it ALL hangs on Kistos Norske now?
Rgds Sft