Member Info for Surfit

One thing is for sure: CHAR should have no trouble raising funds, even if Putin stopped and relocated back to the Crimea, Russia will not be supplying Europe. China yes but that's a decent pipeline to build even (which will happen imo) but Russia will be out for yrs.
Short of Armagedon, I am really surprised more ii's are not onto this....what are we missing?
Rgds Sft

Hey Mirasol, a few yrs back I spoke to a worker (ROV) that was on the drilling campaign and his comments support what you have said.

Rgds Sft

On a serious count down.
1. Have world events changed Navitas intent and or its project investors?
2. Have Navitas found an additional partner for the project?
3. Should we still expect an RNS before the announced deadline.
4. Get ready for Argie shouting or could they see an opportunity due to...
5. What is HM Gov advising on development, as we go through the VERY significant Russian threat. Will HM Gov want a multi threat senario at this present time? Consider stretch of military resources.
6. Oil price seems to now be assured to be +75 for medium term
7. Will separate supply area for oil be of significance.
8. Can UK protect that supply route and infrastructure.
If there are new JV/Project doubts Moody should announce a further extension BEFORE 31st March.
GLA
UK priority is support Ukraine and now possibley Europe/UK

Rgds Sft

The share price is really attractive too unfortunately people have been hoping for a buy out since 2012.
Not going to happen.
If only BP wanted to leave the ease of Russia and go up against the sanctions of Argentina they would really want the press, the support of all the bent and corrupt Latinos that agree with the fair minded, honest Argies (and China).
Reminder: https://www.un.org/press/en/2021/gacol3347.doc.htm
Have a read and see how many disregards the fact of "years of possession and the "overwhelming" will of the FI's population. Its amazing that there was only 3 abstains from the recent Russian veto over Ukraine.
Rgds Sft

"Malky" reference interviews October 21 and February 22.
Rgds Sft

Regarding the issuing of dividend in the AA interview with Maly in October: AA stated (if I heard/understood it correctly) that no dividend could be issued untill either the Q11-B was developed or the bond had been paid back, not sure if this also included the new pipeline circumventing the current third party platform?
What I did find interesting in this interview was that AA stated that 25% was hedged and Kistos was currently making 1 million a day (October) unhedged free cash flow but he could not say if it was in €, £ or $ due to the rate of gas price changes. So he was setting the tone for good income indeed, what was then brought to light in the second interview in Feb 22 was the that there had been loss of production due to third party platform having compressor issues in July (unplanned I would assume) and the PLANNED maintenance shut down in September AND October?Note: If planned it could have been good to bring up the loss of the 1 million a day in October, to aid cash generation calculations.
What it has taught me is AA is good at giving out positive news but keeps the unattractive a bit to hidden imo, this can lead to people getting unnecessarily disappointed. Like not announcing their plans on "bonuses" until after and then having 500k to put in on a price drop? Of course I maybe being unfair and he added the 500k to support the SP? All I will say he certainly did not add before the water well was announced?
Just my musings, still committed to Kistos but will certainly listen and tred more carefully with regards to Mr Austin.
Rgds Sft

Thank you for the information Jimmy. As you, and probably us all belive, CHAR will have full focus on Anchois.
GLA
Rgds Sft

Hello Jimmy, I have been trying to find accurate /lates block allocations offshore Namibia: AM I correct both Shells (Graff/PEL-39)and Total blocks (Venus/PEL 56) are to the South and adjacent each other?
Chariots is well North correct (PEL-71). Reading through the Web 2018 drilling was not successful for Chariot, but they were considering drilling again 20/21
Has there been any further consideration or have the Geo tech guys said: No?
Rgds Sft

Hi Oil, bit harsh.
I was not putting out any investment strategy, nor did I say it is positive that no one is buying now???? I did put down potential reasonings on HBR low SP and for consideration and debate. I also wondered why EIG would be looking to change its strategy from its Chryasor days?
My own situation is I have averaged down enough for me to be comfortable with in this particular company. I came into PMO to hedge against RKH and the SL project, and today its not worked out too well for me.
Others have possible traded or read it better. I sit here reasonably okay with my current remaining HBR average, although in the red.
I am happy with my current investments with the accepting of RKH, which has turned out over the long term to have been to speculative: having averaged down too many times.
Anyway fill your boots and invest away, if you know what is going to happen after April.
GLA
Rgds Sft

If EIG are looking to offload their 36% (lock in 12 months from merger) it would be (IMO) a significant step change from their strategy with Chryasor. Chyrasor being set up by EIG, to invest primarily in a known and "safe" NS producing assets and expand through additional drilling. With PoO pricing reaching new highs, I am struggling to see why they would change that strategy, they did not have to purchase PMO?
I rechecked the Chryasor March 21 pdf issued during Merger and:

Premier creditors: 18% Small holders (< 2.7%): none
Large holders: 3-6 months
Former EIG Investors 32% - 6 months lock up
Chrysaor legacy investors / other: 7% - 6 month lock up
EIG: 36% - 12 month lock up (Ends March 2022)

But the SP does not reflect any positive market sentiment, this could be as it believes that EIG are going to offload, or HBR has not given clear or sufficient corporate financial information (incld debt and divi) or strategy, or Tolmount, Zama and exit from Falklands or General large ii / pension investors move away from OnG due to investor and international pressures to stop investments in hydrocarbons.

What is clear is that there has been a significant drop in trading volumes, is it as some consider: The powder is being kept dry until March.
Will be intresting to see what happens a week or so before the unlock date and HBR's March update.
Rgds Sft

Still a touch early for a move from hold to buy (imo) Buzz. I would definitely put a "buy" if we get a good contract signed detailing the required carry, detail on the project development and conformation that adequate funds acquired. Until then its still too speculative , of course that depends on a person's appetite for risk.
Would be intresting to speculate on the potential SP value if there is a contract signed by the group as hoped for. Another company coming in could also be of major significance.
All to play for still.
Just imo only.
GLA
Rgds Sft

Not too long to wait now. I would expect an RNS before 30th of March.
As before it would be highly embarrassing if RKH issued another asking for more time: That would indicate that RKH/Navitas and FiG are not aligned in contractual /project expectations.
Early tells an equally different and positive collective agreement.
The days to do are getting few (-:
GLA
Rgds Sft

Interesting artical found and posted on ADFN by Gozzie.
The China/Russia partnering and really world influences and reach is not stopping and growing...New world order?
The influence China is building in distressed and corruptible/ buyable counties will only increase.

"War Clouds Are Scudding Over the Falklands, and This Time It Could Be Far More Dangerous"
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/war-clouds-are-scudding-over-the-falklands/92051/

Rgds Sft

This is quite an interesting read from the UN and the countries supporting Argentinas claim to the Falklands.
The main gist of those supporting do not mention the existing populations opinion as primacy.
If you look at Guatemala stance they (unsurprisingly) take it even further: "To date, the islands are populated by subjects of the occupying Power who have no claim to the right of self-determination....."
BUT
In the case of a female representative VICTORIA MANGAY SULIMANI (Sierra Leone),...."Primacy must be given to the wishes, aspirations and well-being of the peoples of the territories,” she said, adding that any solution short of that will not be durable or sustainable.  She added that much could be gained by dispatching a field mission to the Territory that would assess the situation on the ground.....

To date I belive I am correct in saying that the UN has NOT ever sent such a delegation, as has ALSO been asked on several address made by the Islanders at the UN.
I wonder why not?
The list of counties detailed in the artical is quite intresting.

https://www.un.org/press/en/2019/gacol3338.doc.htm
Rgds Sft

This is the only / latest news I can find regarding Tullos's push back with Pemex. So it seems an update would be good with regards to PMO/HBR's other value asset / reserves.
Typical of the issues when dealing in some Latin country's. This could be a long term issue unless the Mexicans see the value in letting Tullos do the heavy lifting for them, unbelievable really when Pemex can not raise the cash to develop and you compare
what Petrobras are doing to the South of the continent.
Getting g a resolve on this would be a significant boost imo?
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/9/3/talos-pushes-back-against-pemex-over-zama-oilfield-takeover
Rgds Sft

I certainly hope there is NO conflict in the Ukraine, the loss of life would be terrible
Note: AND driven by a man that recently got his new build mega yacht out of the marker yard earlier!

"For now, the most likely energy disruption would be to Russia’s exports of natural gas, say analysts. Russia exports around 23 billion cubic feet of gas a day, about 25% of global trade, and 85% of that gas goes to Europe, according to Cowen. In particular, Russia’s flow of natural gas to Europe through a pipeline network in Ukraine could be disrupted during a conflict. The network transports about 4 billion cubic feet a day at full capacity to Europe but is currently flowing at about 50%, according to Cowen.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/why-russian-invasion-peril-is-driving-oil-prices-near-100-11644790004

Note: Putins Yacht
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vladimir-putins-superyacht-the-graceful-leaves-germany-before-sanctions-can-bite-2jz3nns2b
Rgds Sft

Sam has one more chance to make the last 17yrs (AIM listed 2005, 2010 strike oil) work.
If he extends again it will look really poor, he must know that , so (imo) the March adjustment must have been well over the time frame required. So an RNS on the contract really could come anytime?!?
I would much prefer to have a signed contract first then positive OM results. It would be the ideal for the SP.
GLA
Rgds Sft

Hence AA's dislike on exploration investments and /or new build projects.
I would guess Kistos does the numbers on proven production and if there is a location (included in the cost) that may provide add then its a bonus. As is the Greater Laggan/ Glendronach Total purchase.

Info before Kistos purchase, also before this the reserves were reduced by 40% so Total already having paid for the additional appraisal drill was great for information prior to purchase for Kistos (and a good call by Total).
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/040720-frances-total-studying-options-for-uks-glendronach-gas-field-mum-on-fid

Rgds Sft

I agree BM, I would have liked AA to fully disclose costs and impact on the wet well. It was skipped over in Malkys interview. I do not understand why, his investors trust him and I for one was a bit disappointed AA using a bit of smoke and mirrors. It does though remind us all: once you introduce "exploration/survey conformation" into the mix it can swing either way despite what the geology/ survey department assures you.
GLA
Rgds Sft

I am not saying its impossible SH, I invested in PMO/ HBR because they were going to build SL...it was to reduce my exposure with RKH...so you can imagine my feelings when HBR pulled out?!? I still think they are wrong but, it must be the Argies and the risk of developing such a project balanced with reward.
They have a few issues going on at the moment with just Zama and a little gas asset Tolmount (not including the down grade in reserves on Tolmount and SL).
They think its easier to buy producing old assets, get the instant return and possibley grow with extra drilling...if they go back in to SL even at 10% they ate back with all the issues that the Argies give them AND no control over the asset???
ATB
Rgds Sft