Member Info for Surfit

Good conversations and excellent points made gents even dare I say by the eccentric.
The project, timings and product is VERY good and we should continue to reinforce that investors exiting due to overall market concerns (may be some experience learnt from covid crash) is probable a more realistic senario than others; including my conspiracy theories, but it sticks with me a bit although fully recognise maybe I am seeing Elvis's face in tea leaves.

We have NO shorts against us (short tracker i.e. >0.5%), which is a good indicator.
I have been greedy but on the climb up from at and +12p. I am ex RKH /PMO they kept us "hanging" for years so am a bit wary of averaging /adding down the rabbit hole.
The BoD I am sure will not be rushed but I would hope (and be miffed/ nervous/concerned) if there is no up date (even if its an interview) at least before the new year.
All the best Sft

Hi KB, I appreciate its just my opinion but I am trying to find root cause on events. As I say; I may be way off. but a continued and gradual drop prior to recent funding announcements triggered my interest.
Note: There was NO SP rise ahead of the significant Gas Discovery at Anchois-2 Well. Mon, 10th Jan 2022 07:00 RNS Number : 8860X but there is (imo) some support for such concerns after.
Or it may just be coincidence and part of the ebb and flow as a result of a company raising funds when there is no income? After all these trading companies have been doing this professionally for quite a while.
Still to raise it is to get it considered. I will be interested to see if/when buyers start creeping back in?

Best Rgds Sft

What COULD be worth considering is apart from the complete drop off of new investors is
1. Who can be selling at these current levels, having not been this low since April 22? Obviously some one with significantly lower average i.e. before the post drill notification of results
2. They must have a significant amount of share holdings AND the % change is not that much i.e. <3% as it would have trigger a notification (TR-1) of change of holdings ?
3. We are getting regularly traded by a broker as indicated by the Automated Execution, possibly also supported with larger sell under the Ordinary trade
4. As per chariots Web site
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management 14.6% Interactive Investor 12.3%
Westward Investments
(Adonis Pouroulis Acting CEO) 9.1%
Total Board and Senior Management 9.6%
Note: Adonis Pouroulis has 9.13% under this management section
Halifax Share Dealing 4.9 %
Barclays Wealth 3.9 %
AJ Bell Securities 3.2%
https://www.chariotenergygroup.com/investor-centre/aim-rule-26/
So that's 47.6% accounted for and 52.4% not
Note: The Simple Wall Street report had 75% in "Retail Ownership" not sure how valid that is after recent and significant share issues
So the question is WHO
5. Final question is WHY
A. Walking the share down in a period of no news will be get announced for a "known" (insider)
B. "suspected" risky considering FEED can be announced any time
C. Profit taking : why when this is a very good investment. Possibley cash needed else where?
Still I revert to the drop off in new investors.....if 75% (or less post new shares) are retail then that us all sitting on them and it's possible one of the others Hargreaves or ( my guess) Westwood?
This I.o could get walked down a bit but will start to climb again a month before a pertinent RNS is announced.
I realise I may be way off but it's intresting to put it out there and see what happens.
I do genuinely belive someone is getting too accurate information and timings.
GLA
Rgds Sft

Hey Jim and BDC, I have been looking at IOG and looking at daily production (although having a few issues at present), confirmed reserves and possible reserves (2P/3P and 2C?) share price, shares issued and cash reserves /revenue and is it a worth comparison to CHAR??
AS we can see what IOG actual peak share price was and current share price is
Is there any value in comparing developement to production time lines also?
Thoughts?
Best regds Sft

Thank you BDC, you read my mind on the non recourse debt....was Googling that, as I did not understand what that entailed. Thank you for the explanation.
Can the banks sell on the debt and the non recourse aspect together ????or are they more tied in ...Still shivering over ARCM (bought a good % of debt from a creditor/ban, then shorted on the company as a cover) and what was done with Premier Oil.....brrrrrr
Again thank you for info.
Rgds Sft

Good reminder, thank you BDC.
Intresting on re-listening to that and reminding fully funded to FEED, wonder what the "We are going to be smart about the funding" of the project will entail?
But the reaffirmation about not reducing from core company value/worth is of importance (obviously after the recent significant share dilutions to date).
I think FEED completion looks to be the next RNS as JMW confirms gas sales is "signed" and not just an MOU?
NOTE: A memorandum of understanding (MoU) is a type of agreement between two (bilateral) or more (multilateral) parties. It expresses a convergence of will between the parties, indicating an intended common line of action.It is often used either in cases where parties do not imply a legal commitment or in situations where the parties cannot create a legally enforceable agreement. It is a more formal alternative to a gentlemen's agreement.
Wiki definition
The project looks good, he also reinforces that the infrastructure is simple and been done many times before.....so maybe we will get FEED completed 2022 as initially hope?
Rgds Sft

The potential for CHARs gas development in Morocco are VERY significant as has been reinforced by the quality posts made by Jimmy, Scott, BDC and others.
Parking the addtional work with their ongoing Renewables and Hydrogen projects (of real importance but requiring addtional investments that are not there presently);
1. What do posters think will be the next RNS that we can expect regarding the "the project": FEED completion, farm in partner or signing off a gas supply contract?
As members have identified plant conversions to gas would take some time.
It's looking very interesting with lots of opportunities bot short term and medium/long (Anchois 20 years supply). I would be hoping that at the very least clarity on a time line time on development of Anchois is needed, but appreciate FEED needs to be confirmed completed.
2. I also ask does any one know how long it takes to build a shore based gas CPF as required for Anchois. Only know a bit about Bacton (Norfolk) but that caters for a lot larger supply and 4 separate companys.
Rgds Sft

Had to check in at short tracker to see if any vultures were having a circling: results 0.0% shorts
That it remains a 0% gives some additional confidence.
Although caveat: "We no longer track disclosures after they drop below 0.5%. It is possible that the manager still holds a short position even if we are showing it as zero"
https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GG00B2R9PM06/

Intresting info:
https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BMBVGQ36/
Why?
Rgds Sft

Good find and post LB (and supporting post Jim).
If you look at ALL the fundamentals that support and underpin this Anchois-1 /2 project the current SP is ludicrous and completely baffling.
I would love to speak to a professional broker within a large energy investment company as to what is their view just to understand what are the investment thresholds /triggers on WHEN they do invest in such companies. Wish I new one to talk with on when this project is suitably derisked from such an point of view.
Does any one out there have ANY such contacts in the "City"
Rgds Sft

Hello deskstand, asked the question early: if you open up the thread "capital reduction update"
There were so.e good replies on there.
Rgds Sft

A good read is: final results report issued June 22
https://www.chariotenergygroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Chariot-2021-Final-Results-Final-22.06.22.pdf

Technical Director’s Review of Operations
Transitional Gas Overview: (ref page 10 onwards)
Extract page 11
" Activity for the remainder of 2022 will include FEED engineering on all aspects of the development, including drilling and completion, subsea production systems, offshore flowline and umbilical, onshore gas processing plant and the onshore export pipeline..."

(Page 12) Gas Market:
Domestic markets in Morocco offer attractive gas prices to both the industrial and power markets; the current pre?drill economic model is supported by audited 2C 361Bcf estimate base case resource, with 70mmscf per day potential at US$8-15 per mcf to power and industry.
In October 2021, Chariot signed a gas sales agreement with a leading international energy group for gas offtake

NOTE: Do we know who that is, I keep forgetting about this comment?

"...The MoU will underpin the development as part of a long-term partnership, which offers an important opportunity to sell surplus gas above domestic requirements into the European market, utilising the connection of the Maghreb-Europe (GME), which provides direct access to Europe via Spain."

Best rgds Sft

BetamaX or VHS......IT'S a engery change like wood to coal to oil..change and one will be right....the alternative is what.
Personally is does not matter.....over population wins, untill China decides depopulation through biology is the way forward.....a covid type has given them the future path.
Homosapian dedicated...perfect.
)-:
Rgds sft

Thank you BDC.
I just can not shake my concerns over going it alone, and would welcome the assurance that an experienced operator would provide.
As you point out they have already partnered with Total Eren and see a similar fit (TE) for developing Lixus and Rissana as the ideal.
Time will tell.
Best rgds Sft

Hi BDC, thank you for taking the time to clarify.
Greatly appreciated.
In your opinion (or others) how important is having such agreement(s) in place in relation to getting a farm in partner?
My thought process was without having confirmed what your selling for, it would impact such? I am guessing that the like of TotalEnergies may want an input in such dicussions and signed / confirmed assurances.
I have an understanding of FEED, FID sanction but am trying to have a clearer understanding of other factors, where they fit in with regards to importance and time line of a project development
Note: I appreciate that there is a break even build cost and an operating costs that would be the baseline.
Also I would like to ask how important do you think it is for Chariot to get a farm in partner onboard?
As you have probabley picked up from my posts I think it is very important, due to the concerns I have posted before.....especially further share dilution or unknown creditor deals.
Again thanks for the replies. It's good to get dialogue (Jimmy's been very informative) and corrections to any errors made.
Best rgds Sft

Hi DCB, maybe I am if you or Fernan can help me out has a gas contract been signed off? I do not think the current MoU covers it?
I was on the understanding that the supply price was to be formalised.
Please advise.
Kind regards Sft

Hey Fernan,
Is there a set trading price that is negotiated and signed off on? I.e. a contract that the goverment WILL have a hand in?
Rgds Sft

Hi HD,

The report info below was posted by Fernan in September I do not have a link for the report so I do not know the source.

All that Chariot HAVE stated as per the Sept interim issued report
https://www.chariotenergygroup.com/investor-centre/financial-reports/
Extract: "Transitional Gas:
We are now developing a significant project which has 1.4 Tcf in 2C plus 2U total recoverable resources at
Anchois and our team is fully focused on the FEED elements of the development plan, working alongside
Schlumberger and Subsea 7 who we appointed in June. With Societe Generale leading the project financing, a Tie-In agreement signed with OHNYM post-period end providing access to the major Maghreb Europe Gas pipeline, ongoing offtake AND strategic partnering *DISCUSSIONS and our Environmental and Social Impact Assessment underway, we are looking to reach FID as soon as possible to start generating material cash
flows thereafter."
"Material upside:.........We are committed to developing and realising the value of this gas field and moving it into production to help meet the growing demand within Morocco’s domestic market as well as *POTENTIALLY supplying surplus gas to Europe.

*Note: indicates they do not know yet i.e. "the contract"
I also note there is no written comment that FEED is on track for completion in 2022

AS has been proven (suprise fund raise) we do not know which way the BoD will go.
As said before the fundraising and BoD share allocation has resulted in a 50.5 % (according to Simpley Wall St) share dilution in a year.
2.5 month to end of year, we can only sit, wait and hope whomever is selling out (SP has again been heading down further) is wrong and there is no unwarranted surprises.
Rgds Sft

Hey Fernan,
I think you may recognise the below as it is from your post in September (-:

Anchois economic model. Angus research report
Excerpts from Auctus advisors´ report:
"Financing: The key steps to funding the project include the securing of gas sales contract (see above), debt funding (Reserves Based Lending) and equity funding. 70% of the project cost to first gas is likely to be funded with debt (~US$245 mm). Société Générale has been appointed as lead bank with the potential participation of Moroccan banks. The balance of the cost of the project is likely to be funded by a combination of pre-pay and industry participants. Given the strategic nature of natural gas, the very strong economics of the project and very large running room with regards to the resources volumes, we have assumed that the company would secure a farm-in partner, where a stake (we have assumed 25% WI) in the company’s licences would be sold in return for a carry and a refund of past costs (~US$40 mm). The overall net equity funding exposure of Chariot post farm-out and pre carry and past costs refund is only US$55 mm. In 2019 and for a project with smaller resources (410 bcf for IOG compared to 637 bcf for Anchois) and lower gas prices at the time, IOG was able to sell 50% of its UK SNS gas development to CalEnergy (Warren Buffet) for £40 mm in cash plus a net carry of up to £125 mm. Given the strength of the economics of the Anchois, we believe Chariot should be able to attract a 25% farm-in partner on terms sufficient to reduce its net equity exposure to zero."
"We are forecasting 70 mmcf/d gross production at Anchois from 2025 increasing to 100 mmcf/d in 2027. Fiscal terms in Morocco consist of 3.5% royalty, and 31% corporation tax but there is a 10 year corporation tax holiday from start of production. "
"With heavy fuel oil being the main substitute for gas, domestic Moroccan gas prices are very high. We note that SDX Energy’s gas realizations are ~US$11-12/mcf in Morocco. "

It was a good find/post, remains VERY valid and still all are unanswered or confirmed.

Kind rgds Sft

Hi Fernan,
First have a read of:
Gas Market MOU Signed in Morocco
Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 07:00
RNS Number : 7439Q
Chariot Oil & Gas Ld
02 March 2021
"The MOU relates to the Ministry's support of Chariot and ONHYM's Anchois Gas Development project as a POTENTIAL provider of significant gas to the Moroccan gas market........."

Simpley put Fernan: What is the price that gas is to be sold to the Moroccan Gov?
We still need a confirmed and signed contract detailing price, minimum supply deliverables yearly and daily, surplus sell on etc etc
I would think these play quite an important position when considering the financials: investment vs return vs timelines
Any thoughts ?
Kind Rgds Sft