Member Info for Surfit

Hey GP, sorry bad timing. Must try harder.

Hey "TheBold" It will actually all be fine (hows that for you)? Unfortunately there are a few investors that think differently, so your short term by in will be affected, but as you have just jumped in recently, I do understand. Did you buy in at 12p? Or catch the bottom? Weldone. I am sure it will come good just not quite yet.

No I still have around 500k of shares, only offloaded 100k to TRY and recoup elsewhere during this stagnant period. IMO of course.

Yes checked the latest unaudited mid term, MAYBE you should to? Also have a look at the note 16

I will actually post another link for you. I try to do that when making comments in an attempt to support my thought process.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ENOG/energean-israel-3q-2023-accounts-kap0pnfk31j8vmg.html

Summary: The carrying amount as of 30 September 2023 was US$2,588 million and as of 31 December 2022 was US$2,471 million.

My apologies if an honest assessment is not to your liking and I do understand you type of traders love to pull the deramp gun to discredit any one that get in your turnaround way, but I think it's going to be a while before we get a climb and for the reasons I have stated.

Good luck, if you bought in at 8p you may double your money if the onshore strike it.

Rgds Sft

It means investors even us PI and especially II's really do not like RISK:

Risk on onshore AND the offshore appraisal drilling, risking in financing and even risk from the new partner: tiny FREE carry for the give away, has the partner secured the financing for the development, they ALREADY carry a VERY SIGNIFICANT debt

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-enog/energean-shares/news/energean-lonenog-has-a-somewhat-strained-balance-sheet/amp

FINALLY investors are still not sure of Chars cash runway vs time to income (rosk another share placing at 8p??) no value placed on the other renewables arms only further RISK as further financial drain with no planned income revenue stream in short or medium terms or even spoken about longterm.

Finally there is RISK with CHAR management team itself.: Ability to control finances, cut short offshore drilling before flow testing, and stratagey on share dilution.

All my opinions DYOR, or listen to the (TBC) experts?

Interestingly (Positive?)

Still no TR-1 RNS issued for the sell offs? Has it been many of the PI (87%), or has an II (6% er?) just ignored the 3% change notification requirement ???

Hello TSSZ, very interesting and very informative artical. Excellent find and thank you for posting.

I was just wondering about stating payment is confirmed?

Looking at a previous much older Retuers artical the abritation information looks the same.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/iraq-petitions-us-court-enforce-oil-export-arbitration-award-against-turkey-2023-04-11/

I was just looking at the journalist and his history.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdullah_Bozkurt

It may be he is using the arbitration information for political OR investigative exposure purposes.

I am not sure of the current US District Court for the District of Columbia has as yet enforced a ruling ????

Again a good find, just may not be quite there yet, BUT certainly very informative.

Thank you.

Rgds Sft

Hello ValueS,

The economic logic sits very well and I fully agree.

The internal politics of Kurdistan independence aspirations (imo) must be / has been a important play in this, but it being too weaked or too deeply aggrieved is a dangerous game. Even more so with Iran having such powerful "the great game" players in Russia /China.

If Iraq and the Kurds can find a safe middle ground together both in politics and contracts, part of the Middle East has a better balance point.

Logic would say, that the timing and time is very close for a resolve for them and Turkey?

Despite these shorters not believing it or possibley covering either their or their clients investments?

Time will tell.

GLA

Rgds Sft

Correction: should read: ".....at best being just UNDER max OPEC deliverables"

Rgds Sft

Hello ValueS,

Thank you for the post, the figures, from the artical, look good and really informative:

" Iraq is committed to OPEC decisions and after its second cut to producing no more than 4 million barrels per day (bpd)"

" .....Iraq's current crude oil exports range between 3.35 million and 3.4 million bpd, he added.....

With the artical confirming previous production figures for Northern Iraq exports

"...Turkey halted Iraq's 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of northern exports on March 25 last year after an arbitration ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) which ordered Ankara to pay..."

So it looks to confirm, as others have posted, bringing the Northern PL back sits well to at best being just over max OPEC deliverables.

Not that the Northern production could be brought back up so quickly but even when it has, it allows for "fat" on any unplanned Southern export unplanned shut in's / loss of production.

So I found those quoted figures very reassuring.

Thank you for posting.

Rgds Sft

Should read: "....These guys DO all this with a lot of professional investor experience...."

Hi Itsaponzi,

I am not saying this is the case but ii's can take a % short position to offset an investment, especially if holding at a high(er) average position?

Alternatively as it is clearly disappointing to see a 0.09% rise its increase could be utilised to undermine any confidence in a near term resolution, if WorldQuant did or did not know anything, accept there remains uncertainty. These guys to all this with a lot of professional investor experience.

To have a secure information source in Iraq, would imo be very doubtful.

They do like playing with % shorts though, they seem to have quite a few??

https://www.stockomendation.com/short-positions/holder/worldquant-llc

Still this seems to be running on a bit longer than many thought and as shipping prices increase, the Houthis /Iran senarios will not abate as Iran do not want them to...the Houthis actions have increased because the third party supplier financing has been increase accordingly ..so its not finishing soon.

Iraq will start to see AGAIN its better having the Kurds as strong than being manipulated by Iran to weaken them based on independence, some small form of devolution may be the way forward.

Just my opinions. DYOR/guessing.

Rgds Sft

Excellent and positive information TSSZ.

As FCFY also informs, opening that pipeline is cheaper for transportation and all parties are loosing ridiculous amounts of money.

Turn the taps on an all benefit, especially the Kurdestan people! 👊

FCFY you points are very insightful and appreciated.

Rgds Sft

Hi Inafer/Whimax

It's a gamble for sure, in that I feel that for the time being there are other opportunities "potentially" available within time frames.

I held on for the farm in news and it was not what I was expecting.

I did correctly belive that the onshore was going to be outside of any farm in deal as it was a good move to provide seperate and MUCH needed income to CHAR in a faster time frame, especially when BoDs knew what the farm in deal was going to be and how long it would take offshore to production income.

I, as ever, remain just as cautious on the finance vs cash runway.

Char remains my largest investment BUT feel I must speculate (not with out risk, I am fully aware) to try and recoup (i do not have enough to invest further and average down...again) following the sp fall, which I think will remain around 10p for some time.

In a way i hope I am massively wrong, not in my part transfer in to two other investments but that the char sp regains back to 18p "and beyond"

I may pull more out but will wait and see, the two other investments are almost as speculative but sit in closer return periods ( I hope!).

Then I would return my investments back in.

Could all go Pete Tong and some times it is best to sit it out and be patient, and not get swayed by such movements....its the finances that worry me.

Again I stress its just my take as ever DYOR.

Sincerely GLA.

Rgds Sft

Thank you FCFY, excellent information.

Just for fact checking, do you have the DNO link regarding false OPEC quotas? All I could find was same 2x lines on "X" under barron investments?

I did find this though: DNO says oil production rose in Kurdistan Region19-12-2023"

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.rudaw.net/english/business/19122023-amp

That's reasuring, just some more information regarding the OPEC quota effects unless false reporting.

It does not stop my overall positive sentiment towards getting a resolve on the pipeline, just a factor to consider, but your points are aligned (but more informed, than) with mine

Good info, thank you.

Rgd Sft

Hey FNG TB,

That's my point and for clarity I said transferring "some"

TTFN

Rgds Sft

Hey ianfer,

The proactive interview helps reinforce my thoughts on AP and their attitude, although the muppet interviewing him did not ask any serious questions.

I guess if you ask the hard ones they do not come back and you do not have any interview (not that was one).

I will have a watch of your one, cheers.

Yes Char are on the road again but only after several step back, and I have said the reasons for too many. That video on Proactive really just reinforces man with forked tongue.

GLA

rgds Sft

So he does not know why the SP has dropped?

Would have been nice (read: essential) to hear assurance about financing or reintroduced risk (onshore) with the very limited free carry, as another poster commented they gave a heck of a lot away (45%) for 10million and a protected 15million (there is a concern for offshore) ...so when he says he does not know....man speak with forked tongue, by not even encroaching any where near the elephants.

They never talk about funding, this is why it's still about 85% owned by PI and not ii's

Not shifting anywhere untill a successful onshore drilling, that on its own may not get us back to 14p let alone 18p..how much 28million to get onshore to production...Will that be Q1 25? What are the monthly outgoings!? If AP put it out there he would earn some trust!

And YES I have started to transfer some out else where.

The bit of information I had TOTALLY missed was regards OPEC limits for Iraq and particularly the new January quota.

Sorry I am sure the bb is aware and has probably been discussing. That could take the edge of any rush to restart?

My history: Bought in and out of GKP over the years (After the old rerate, Covid March 2020 and out when transferring into other investments, came back in at 130 (too early, I know! ) and recently at 109.

Would be interested in any bb impact assessment on the OPEC quota for January, if the main part of Iraq are already making the quota?

https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/iraq-turkey-oil-pipeline-disagreements/?cf-view

Apologies if this has been discussed in detail already

Rgds Sft

Thank you for the additional information FCFY.

Rgds Sft

The Kurds squeezed from all sides, how solid are they internally, will that be undermined.

Interesting (very) artical:

https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2022C58/

Extract "........Tur­key supports the Barzani family-controlled Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Iran supports the Talabani family-controlled Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). This divide is also expressed geographically, as the KDP controls the parts of the KRG that are close to the Turkish border while the PUK controls the regions along the Iranian border. Therefore, Turkey and Iran’s sup­port of rival factions in Kurdish politics has not created significant problems in their bilateral relations, at least so far. Nonetheless, two factors are aggravating tensions....."

Can the Kurds retain their belief in themselves, the leaders support the people or fall to greed and exit strategies via Cayman Bank accounts?

Will riches for the leaders lead to internal division?

You can bet Iran, Iraq and Turkey all see that as a strategy with oil as the prize.

Rgds Sft

Hey Itsaponzi,

Re shorts, they do seems to be loosing a bit of confidence now (albeit in December)

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/BMG4209G2077/

Interesting artical

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/18/red-sea-crisis-energy-oil-houthi-attacks-shipping/

With the, Houthis heating things Straits of Hormuz issues heating up, as others have said, pressure and serious consideration MUST be on the rise to reopen the pipeline.

True the Iranians would most likely NOT support a Houthis attack on an Iraqi flaged tanker (Galvanising a country) or producing an enviromental disaster as per artical)

Also as in artical places like of Brazil, Guyana, GoM etc (and EVEN more of a threat to prices is if Venezuela EVER get their house back in order).

Even though the Kurds may feel let down by the USA, to side with China would not be the way they would head, then they have fully lost the US.

Disclaimer note: Trump of course being the wild card having abandoned them last time.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/07/trump-abandons-the-syrian-kurds/

My opinion is that Iraqis (and Turkey) wanted to take the Kurdish down a significant number of pegs to stop further promotion and aspirations of independence but there is to WAY TOO much money involved for ALL 3 parties for this stand off to continue for TOO much longer?

I see (for my own investment stratagy/ guess!?) resolution in 2 to 4 months.

Thoughts?

Rgds Sft

Thanks to both BDC and Jimmy for the addtional information.

Hopefully the BoDs will provide some firm assurances to us and other holders, to support such or similar in the comming weeks.

GLA

Rgds Sft

Good find and post BDC,

How do LTH's see the company's liquidity to production income holding up to some time in YR24 if costs are as expected: "overall development capex of US$28 mm (including exploration drilling"

Current cash in bank, operating costs /outgoings and timings on receiving the US$10 million payable on completion of the farm in transaction and US$15 million payable on Final Investment Decision ("FID")

Genuine question.