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Sunak has a decent understanding of the issues and economics, whilst he's not my cu of tea, maybe the best man for the job and certainly has the markets confidence.
Rumour has it IAG will prioritise paying off/closing gevernment 'covid'loans' since under those loans no dividend can be given so once these loans (circa 3 billion) have been paid (estimated in less than a year) then Divs can be considered (if not paid).
depending on forward bookings and how fast loans are repaid, Sp could soar. Caveat is of course geopolitical Pootin/china/ covid 4.0...
but looks to be steady rise from here on...
Gla
It looks like they might get back to that level next year. I understand they are putting on most of their 380's during the Qatar FIFA season...
And with Cargo and ticket fares at an all time high, it looks like they will be posting record profits ...
Gla
That being the case and with Cargo load factor greater than 2019 and forward booking very high with high seat prices, will there be any change in SP or is this already priced in?
IAG expected to pay 1/2 their debt in less than 2 years, would indicate dividends round the corner?
Answers on a postcard:-)
GLA
Sorry Jason
Your just too reasonable and er whats the word - measured:-) try being gobby, opinionated without backing up your assertions, talk about drivle that has nothing to do with IAG (oh dear thats what we are both doing now!)....time to filter myself!
Obviously, you could try insulting me also?, Nah that doesnt work, too thick skinned:-) You really have to try harder is my only advice.
GLA
Please no need to reply! lol
Gwizz
You'll find the list gets longer with time lol and thats the order I have filtered them in. I make more money listening and reading to the wise folk on here (I dont count myself as one of those!) as the rest are a distraction and I like to manage distractions :-)
Gl
Ps expecting a barrage of insults but like Pootin, i'll have no clue since their all filtered -:)))
heres mine:
whatamess
George_
Wright
jenn1800
roger061
castle2012
blueTR64
big-blue
Nzonze
Fugazi1
Fontenoy
DenFos
Retirement_Plan
Jtan
PRN19
fordm
sundezena
Scotty, I wish i was intelligent, unfortunately not but do have something else which is less common, er common sense as I'm no good at charts, forecast, stats. wish I was but that is why I read AC's posts, even if I dont always follow them, like you good input, neither ramping nor de-ramping!!
GLA
Whilst the usuals are bickering as usual!, IAG has already indicated Q3 profits circa 1.2 billion so apart from the obvious macro inflation of last month & next month, I would have thought that the markets will be most interested in what IAG's forward bookings are like as this represent cash flow an an indication of how many people are wanting to part with their cash and how much they are willing to do so...
I flew to Cape town yesterday and the business class ticket cost me over 7k!, fortunately I had over 175k worth of avios so offset a lot of the pain with them. I noted an econ ticket was going at just over £1700 one way! as I disembarked chating to a couple in the queue, they had paid £800 quid return for their ticket back in January. So it seems to me that the relevance will be forward bookings as there are no tickets at that price even 6 months in advance!!
That cash flow represents the future of IAG and most obviously the SP.
Therefore the question on my mind will be...
Will the IAG statement on 29th give us an indication of forward booking numbers? If yes then that is likely to move the SP much more than anything else (Barring 3rd world war, Covid 99 etc
GLA
It hasbt crashed, still positive. obviously some profit taking for the nervous....lol
1.2 billion profit per quarter, and likely to be 1 billion next quarterIAG is well on its way to rise from the ashes...
Gla
@DT
agree with most of what you say except europe is no where near depleting it's stockpile of weapons and they are constantly being renewed. Indeed, the factories are ramping up production to cater for continuous use.... the issue has been NATO must keep a certain amount of weapons stockpiled in the event of war.., now they are discussing whether to change this minimum to a lower amount to release more weapons pending further factory deliveries....
As Pootin's war suffers, the markets will feel more confident of the markets and growth in general. However, With Xi Jing Poo now saber rattling expect arms factories to really ramp up. Money of war in Taiwan is 2027 but thats a long way off for markets.
Interim, long live the King and IAG (Lord King that is:-))
GLA
Just a quick one for this single celled amoeba, i'm not a ramper or deramper, just trying to guess the market and make a bob or two (shows my age!) whilst watching Gold. but...
1.2b in one quarter is by any standard profit airline test, a bloody good effort. Unlikely to be repeated for Q4,1 & 2 but still even if that margin and yearly comes in at circa 3 billion. That would be Iag's highest ever on record. Yet the Sp is pathetic... is this about to seriously jump or do we have de-rampers suggesting we are going to have a rights issue? (haven't heard that one for a while!!)...
As I've been saying for a while (to paraphrase AC77, and i'm not as good as him!) it is obvious this SP has no where to go but up unless an act of Putin occurs (much more likely than an act of God, although I accept in Russia they are one and the same thing:-)
GLA
PS shorts closing rapidly!?
Is this the quarterly result if so the SP should be 600p!
if 1.2B is yearly and with oil price descending SP should still rise nicely.
I like EC's simple math equasion as I cant spell or do math well:-)) should be 141!!
gla
lara1
Thank you. Seems like USD value is what is hitting IAG SP.... Not sure how much more it will go down, some suggest below 100 which is possible and not a silly suggestion as it might have appeared just a few weeks ago!!
I'm hoping itll slowly tick up towards results day but this SP is stubbornly low!
Gla
In all these posts I was, like many of you ,wondering why the SP was not going up considering IAG, (& BA) are raking cash in with loads at 90+ % load factor in all premium cabins....
then this morning, thanks to Radio 4, it made sense. If someone else has already posted the following my apologies I missed it....
We've seen covid, inflation, oil price rise etc but it became clear to me why the markets were reacting bearish on the IAG price...whilst the above has already been priced in what has not is the dollar oil price...In other words the £ vs $. since most energy stocks are traded in USD, if the USD gets stronger then fuel cost IAG substantially more (even though some of it is offset by USD ticket prices). That in turn means the actual price of oil is costing IAG substantially more (even if 60% plus is already hedged, markets are forward looking)
So Even if the oil price stays static or even decreases, the real cost of oil for IAG might be going up ,as most of what it pays for its oil is in Euros and GBP, and with the USD getting stronger against both these currencies IAG SP falls correspondingly.
Looks like it could go sub 100, and I dont have any more dry powder!
but good luck to all those that do...
over by 9.30 am ;-)
but will probably climb back slowly over next 4 weeks....results pending and IAg benefited greatly from the sad passing of HM QEII where most flights in premiums were fully booked and still are!
gla