Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Great stuff crazy, thank you.
So what can we make of these? Again whilst straw poll all the other airlines in that table are Low Cost carriers/charters, perhaps with an expectation that they will go into high profit relatively quickly with their debt paid off relatively easily.
the comparables would of course be Luthansa & AF/KLM. & turnover.
Even if IAG double their profits this year to 1 biilion + then it would take 10 years just to pay down their debt not including inflation, Geo political shocks, etc. I think IAG should and could make 2 billion + a year profit, but until they are on track to do so and can be seen by the markets to be doing so - with a credible debt reducing plan - I think the SP will be depressed due to the large macro risks which still exist.
I'm hoping that IAG will announce that plan and that's why I'm still holding but I just don't know which way this will go and I dont think anyone can predict where the SP will be in 6 months time, they can only express a hope of where it will be. Anything else is fantasy!
GLA
Crazy
thanks for posting those figures. Would you by any chance also know what each of those companies have in terms of debt?
it strike me that a more in depth analysis (but still only strawpoll) would be to do the comparison you've done and add the debt figure and SP next to it. that might give a fuller picture?
easy have a SP significantly higher than IAG yet it made a loss in 22! is that because it has a much lower debt? I dont know but just asking the question if anyone knows!?
DEBT (and how it will be managed and paid down) coupled with inflation is I think the key driver of IAG's SP at the moment. If IAG announced xyz debt will be paid by such and such a time then I think we would see a big shift in the SP... until then we are at the mercy of all the other much smaller factors having a disproportionate effect on our SP...
just an opinion of course.
GLA
yep, and not much of a bounce!
So SP went up less than 1/2 % point because of pax numbers? Increase in FTSE? or just normal trading range (imho). insignificant me thinks unless your trading this in the tens of 000'.
Fact is until there is a significant shift in interest rates downwards (or the firm prediction and timeline of that), and a share plan about what and how IAG are going to manage and pay down their debt, not sure why this SP will climb significantly unless it is on sentiment which I confess can have a MASSIVE impact but can't see that happening with IAG. Just an opinion of course.
Full disclosure I have a significant exposure to IAG so i want the SP to go up but ramping or deramping not my style. just offering a personal opinion but hoping someone will prove me wrong so I hold on to these!!!
gLA
as I said
" SP reflects current market, rises and falls pretty much inline with the FTSE...." note current market and pretty much..
neither of those say linked... oh and got that little bounce on published figures....no fireworks....
gla
Everyone knows :-
1. the Pax numbers will be at record high at LHR (to be published tomorrow)
2. Oil is falling
3. Pax numbers on seats (load factor) very high
SP reflects current market, rises and falls pretty much inline with the FTSE....
But IAG have not decreased debt or spelt out a timeline to decrease debt. Until they do SP will sadly linger....
both Inflation and DEBT are the big issues that IAG have not dealt with...imho.
might get a small bounce tomorrow but not expecting fireworks...
gla
Bobbins, i share your enthusiasm but experience tells me that long weekends mean markets sell in case of macro-economics and theres still a lot of macro risk out there at the moment...
let's hope i'm wrong. i often am lol
i'm planning on jumping in to top up again after easter....if it drops!
gla
Gentlemen
I am neither ramper nor de-ramper but given I already have 6 figures invested in IAG, I try to take a realistic view of where we are and where the IAG SP is going. Now my crystal ball has never been clear. In fact it varies between opaque and as black as a witch's cat. And whilst my soothsaying skills have only marginally been better than 50%, i couldn't say I'm a pro at this. But I'm struggling to see the upward drivers given the very significant mill stones of inflation and debt. The only way this SP is moving is by sentiment, which I admit can be both illogical and a big driver...
So why is this going above 150??
This is what I posted the other day...
I looked into this very carefully to find out why the SP wasn't climbing despite everything looking good.
Q profits now average 1 billion
Pax numbers still increasing
Forward bookings still very strong
Oil price stable, sub 100usd and still falling
IAG cost base much lower than pre pandemic
Efficient aircraft
Very high load factors
The list goes on but the SP is still struggling why???
DEBT
IAG has two forms of debt
Leveraged debt and
pension debt (liabilities)
With the increase in interest rates the city is worried that IAG will struggle to make the payments on both and provide a dividend. its the reason that whizz and easy SP climbed more than IAG when the markets opened back up...
So my take is until IAG make an announcement that they are reducing either debt or pension deficit. SP will linger and the risks are too high for the city...
I think that announcement will come after Q1 results but if we're lucky maybe before about reducing debt.
next big hurdle will be a decrease in interest rates. BoE suggesting early summer they'll start to fall. That will increase the SP significantly.
Until then this will bounce back and forwards . in what band i'm unsure but probably 135, slowly increasing to 150...
Just an opinion of course...
Gla
Trev
I cant say I have insight as the more I read about IAG the more i see the SP flatlining for a while and not going much above 150...and only last month I thought it would go much higher so i did some digging, lots of digging and this is what I found...if you can stomach the full read.
https://www.iairgroup.com/en/investors-and-shareholders/results-and-reports
IAG's liabilities are just over 37billion. (including pension deficits.)
You are correct IAG plans to have the same debt at the end of 2023 as it was at end of 2022. circa 10+billion.
No share dividend can be paid by law until government loans have been fully paid back (both UK and Spain). At the earliest that is 1 jan 2024.
Any dividends paid between 1 jan 2024 and 2025 must also provide for 50% of the dividend provision to be paid into the NAPS (BA DB pension fund).
So in 2023 most of the IAG profit will be used to pay down several other loan & pension obligations that IAG does not intend to renew.
The reason for the slow SP growth is mainly due to Inflation which has a massive effect of pension liabilities, wage costs & revenue.
From what I can glean, until IAG starts to significantly pay down their debt, which they have come out and said they will not do until 2024, AND inflation falls (with net interest rates falling) cant see the SP going anywhere up or down significantly.
Of course the geopolitical. biological, unknown unknown risks are very significant for IAG hence not much city appetite for this share.
That said 1 piece of good news was in the report:
1. IAG is expected to reach 97% pre Pandemic pax levels in 2023 AND separately
2. oil price is now below 80 usd.
If inflation comes down before summer kicks off the SP might break the 150 barrier.
I'm learning the hard way. still in profit in this but slim they are!
gla
I looked into this very carefully to find out why the SP wasnt climbing despite everything looking good. For example:
Q profits now average 1 billion
Pax numbers still increasing
Forward bookings still very strong
Oil price stable, sub 100usd and still falling
IAG cost base much lower than pre pandemic
Efficient aircraft
Very high load factors
The list goes on but the SP is still struglling why?
DEBT
IAG has two forms of debt
Leveraged debt and
pension debt (liabilities)
With the increase in interest rates the city is worried that IAG will struggle to make the payments on both and provide a dividend. its the reason that whizz and easy SP climbed more than IAG when the markets opened back up...
So my take is until IAG make an announcement that they are reducing either debt or pension deficit. SP will linger and the risks are too high for the city...
I think that announcement will come after Q1 results but if we're lucky maybe before about reducing debt.
next big hurdle will be a decrease in interest rates. BoE suggesting early summer they'll start to fall. That will increase the SP significantly.
Until then this will bounce back and forwards . in what band i'm unsure but probably 135, slowly increasing to 150...
Just an opinion of course...
Gla
You really cant make this stuff up!
The only way this will climb is on the back of some good Q1 figures (which I have no doubt they will be) AND a statement from IAG about strong summer forward bookings AND AND either debt paydown or indication of Divi's. Clearly, debt paydown would be more preferable for the SP.
I have some dry powder coming for the 10th April. Selfishly hope it stays that way until then so I can buy back in at a lower sp. Knowing my luck it'll hit 170 again lol
gla
that's what my analysis is pointing to...
Most Fridays there is a small drop in SP as PI's/traders take profits...except the Friday before results day where the trend is blue. That being the case this Friday should show 170+ close on Friday. that is a small climb in % terms. expect nearer 180 results day. Not expecting 200+ until later in April as new schedules confirmed....
still steady climb is better than volatility..
gla
EC, it will get there by end of feb 14 if not sooner...:-) But its good that it's getting there slowly as it's more sustained and more PI's buying and holding as well as institutions...
gla
Antropica
I'm no expert by a long shot and have many mistakes with my investments but 4 key points I learnt from the good guys on here are:
1. Be patient, if you invested and the share drops, either average down or wait If the fundamentals are good, it is just a matter of time.
2. . Dont panic, dont do knee jerk reaction buying or selling. Buy when you think there is a dip, sell when you think there is a peak. Those happen every day, week and month so you just need to figure out if the trend is up or down. If its up, buy then sell at peak and if its down sell to buy back at trough. Risky strategy but with practice and patience it can help you average down but it is risky so only do it if your confident of the outcome. BWE I have a sell GTC at just under 167 at the moment. Think it might get there this or next week but soon. I will then buy back at 164 ish...as the trend is firmly up at the moment.
3. Dont invest what you cant afford to lose. make no mistakes shares are a simple form of gambling!
4. Dont listen to trolls. They get paid to make you believe share is falling, panic sell.
dont fool yourself, dont be greedy., be realistic you are not always going to get it right. You just need to get it right more than you get it wrong:-)
PS. be cautious about taking advice, including me. I'm a novice, and at one point was down over xxxk, but I never sold just averaged down so now my BEP is in the 130's from over 220 back in sept 2020!!
Do what you feel is right, this is still a guessing game, but my belief is share will continue to the 220's this year. regardless of all the stats bottom line is I keep getting downgraded from first and my business class tickets are more expensive than my first class tickets were 3 years ago. So watch the numbers roll in. Good luck
gla
and whatever technical indices or charts you use, they all show an upward trend and will continue to 180's by February (this year :-))) but this is just imho. and gavin please call me out if I'm wrong:-)))))
gla