hemehem11 Oct 2009 23:37
regarding your concerns :-
1. if all the debts were repaid today, this share is still worth 126p on tangible assets. that is a HUGE margin of safety.
2. if there was a firesale and tangible assets were impaired by 50%(which is already a very, very prudent figure), the share is still worth 63p.
3. TSW have more than a year to turn the business around. they have already culled headcount by a third!
4. borrowings due within one year is only £20m(see Reconciliation of Movement in Net Debt, after cashflow statement). to be prudent, a concern could be bank charges for refinancing which could be high but which company isn't facing exhorbitant charges now? no reason banks will not refinance at the due date in january 2011.
5. in H1 2009 TSW was still cash generative, of £5m. i believe this will continue, hence the director's confidence evidenced in the director purchases.
6. net debt has been reduced by slightly more than 10%, will continue to do so.
this is a recovery play in the works, from a company that was profiting previous years until this financial meltdown. i normally self-impose a 50% discount to NAV when i try to value an undervalued company/share. but this share is at a huge 75% discount currently. i've only brought up your concerns about debt, btw.
in all, there is a lot more upside instead of risks attached. i see no reason why this share shouldn't be in the 60p to 70p range now, after taking current market conditions into consideratio