Richtea25 Oct 2009 17:28
First, a disclaimer - I am not an expert! =)
OK, secondly...don't ever take any tips from magazines as gospel truth...always do your own calculations and analysis. the analysts who recommend shares always have an ulterior motive but in my opinion, it's the way the industry works. i'd research a share, buy in, then publish why i think that share is worth buying. but smart investors always make their own analysis before buying in.
OK, regarding the dilution...there are 2 ways to look at it and it's a gray area, both theoretically based. some investors rerate that share base on the price of the share at the rights issue. but i don't agree with this because if the new shares are sold, it is sold at market price, not issue price. so to be prudent, value the issued shares on market price(which is what i do as i disregard the difference between RI price and market price, i.e. the "rights"). to me, this share is currently overvalued.
before dilution = 600m shares (i.e. 2 parts)
after dilution = total of 900m shares (i.e. 3 parts)
before dilution, 2 parts = 180p per share
after dilution, 3 parts = 120p per share (this calculation is based on market price, not RI price. 180p / 3 = 120p)
hence, the share price now including dilution should be valued at 120p if u value it according to market price at sell, pre-dilution. qualifying shareholders will not face dilution is they take up the rights issue is correct.
crystal? =)