Member Info for Stupmy

I've put another short on. Just based on my belief that there is currently no rush to buy (news might change that), there's lots of negativity about in the media following their latest results and the idea that there is a good chance the SP will drop to 485 or below. I've used a smaller position, but if it moves my way to allow me to get a stop in, then I'd consider adding in an attempt to accumulate the upside potential withough accumulating risk. Out of hours news would kick me in the teeth if it caused a jump in the SP, but that's part and parcel of trading. I'd just have to 'suck that up'.

Great post Stevo, thanks for putting the work in and for sharing your views.

Citywire running a similarly downbeat (less detailed though) article today. I fear further falls are getting more and more likely.

Agreed Bb, the only thing I'd be cautious about (I'm almost certainly too cautious) is that you said 'it looks inevitable'. I think the probability is quite high, but each (almost) time I think something is inevitable, I up the stakes and lose a fortune so for me it'll be slow and steady until we reach 485 or below (if we ever do). I really do think the risk is high. I really was disapointed to miss today's 2nd short.

It's always a conspiracy isn't it, if someone has a view that is not your view. How about it's just a view, not 'talking anything anywhere', just working hard to understand SP movements? What you've just said is the sort of nonsense I'd expect from a 4 year old.

I rationalised the SP movements quite well today, but was unable to take advantage of the 2nd drop as I had to go out. I felt it was too risky to leave it open unattended and had not been able to get sensible stop in.
From here it looks interesting. The daily chart doesn't show any support until around 510-520. At that point the SP would be inside the big downside gap. They usually fill in those circumstances simply because it's hard to decide on a rational entry until the SP closes it due to a lack of data in the gap (none). So it seems very likely to me that we will see 485 or lower. There could be support around 465, but on the daily chart, there is a smaller downside gap to around 435. Worth being aware of. I'll keep watching and decide on likelihood of the 2nd gap closing if we see the first closed.
On a 2 h chart the first support appears to be around 525 which is above the large downside gap. I'll be watching that area closely for signs of a reversal that migh save us from the gap at least for now.

Yes, I have to go out soon also. I've closed for a profit of about 1p!

Back on the sidelines

I think I might pushing this one too hard for the moment and it looks like it may rise some more. I figure that the results were some what disapointing but not disastrous so we'd get some downside which worked. Since the results weren't particularly positive I'm assuming that the rise is actually profit taking from shorts as there doesn't seem to be a rush to buy and technically at least there remains some pretty decent downside risk. There's a good chance I'll lose some (all) of my profit here. A risk too far?

I'm going to assume that that rise was short covering and the drop is not over. I don't see why there would be a rush to buy. I'm trying again short. Although I'm a bit nervous.

I can't see any technical reason for the price to rise, but there are some buyers so I've closed out my short for now for about 37/38p. I suspect that it will drop further and that we will now see the price hit or exceed 485. I'll watch and wait for my next opportunity.

That was useful start. Results didn't look likely to bring in buyers, as Chilt said we have some short pressure and the open was slow. I shorted due to it's high beta. Often in situations like this the opening movement is much larger. I guess there is still some confusion as to the results.

Jan, I think that's where I am!! To capitulate after such a long run of being appallingly over-optimistic is to watch the bus leave the station without you. I can even feel the bull-sh... in what I'm saying. I can smell, it's not my rules etc. But I've not sold a share.

Probably gone early and it's a bad time to be early (friday evening), but I just punted this.

Not being funny, but we've all been hoping for stuff like this for a while and I'd have to say to "that would mean the share would rise by 52% - 220/423 by the year end" that "No it wouldn't", simply on the basis of, it hasn't up until now. I still do thing, comedy aside (as many on here won't see that as funny), that at some point we will reratet to the upside, but for the most part we have been wrong in our bullish views.

I'm staying very cautious but the SP is once again testing the upside. The upside barrier for me at the moment is the zero lag 200eMA on the 2h chart. A close above that (and the price at 33.6 is currently above that) would seem to be a serious upside test. We fell below that on Feb 10th this year. But we have tested it 3 times since that date and failed.

Also, I'd just add a bit of caution on a highly indebted company. Building refineries and pipelines means they're not in place. When that's the case it's best to be super-cautious about counting chickens. Just a thought. And if the safety of your money is important to you. Go look up the SP movements on other oil companies who 'just had to pop in a refinery' or 'simply build a pipline'.

Out for a loss of 8p. I'll wait now. Possibly it's favouring the downside for the day.

Also chilt (off topic), I bought a few more ENQ despite saying I wouldn't until the SP hit 14. Again, not something I intend to hold onto.

Sorry, not thinking straight. I think my entry was higher than that around 640/641. I'm not sure it would show up in the trades as I've used a leverage account and it's perhaps not big enough (depending on other clients positions) for IG to have to go to the market. Really, it's cabin fever from sitting on my hands and to see if I can get a meal with drinks for the family out of it. If it worked well enough, I'd be tempted (up until the 28th) to add further small trades and protect them sequentially. When that works, a very moderate risk can pay a very good profit. When it doesn't (out of hours news) it can clean an account out.

If I'm understanding that correctly Chilt as 6.38 worth of shares, then no it's not mine!!! I'm laughing very hard.

Yes, I can believe that Chilt. How fast will the Korean and US retail deals start to contribute to their bottom line? I'd guess not in this announcement, but have not gone into the detail.