Member Info for Stupmy

Makes absolute sense to me, thanks for that Tigar

Chilt SVB was huge. 14 or 16th biggest US bank depending on when you take that rating from. It's problem was not having a big enough lending arm but having too much cash. To generate some return on the huge deposits it invested in long dated treasuries with a 1.5% yield or there about. Then interest rates started to rise quite quickly while company profits were reducing. It meant the bonds reduced in value (a lot I figure as they were paying 4-5% or something similar). Then as their depositors needed access to their money due to the tech sector being disproportionately hit by interest rate rises at a time their profits were reducing, they had to sell the bonds at a big loss. Then the rumours started and there was a run on the bank.

It doesn't add anything we've not discussed here. I guess it just adds weight as it's from a fund manager.

41 mins on for Enq in this piece! Don't waste your time with the rest.

That's a long watch modestus. Did you think it was worth it. I'm almost 30 mins in and wondering 'What has this to do with Enq'?

Thanks Therapist. I think we could have done without that from a perception perspective. As you say, though, a considered piece. This (probably not a political statement), on top of Harbours very negatively worded RNS (political statement?) is not going to do us any favours next week. However, if a floor is put into the EPL (energy not 'excess' profits levy) our SP should rise (if POO stays stable at least). Very tough times. I'm now looking at Harbour and having kept considerable cash to one side, I'd be more tempted now to start building into Harbour if the Charts/TA suggest it's going to stabilise. In theory, they've set-aside 1.7? billion for the EPL. The SP has halved and 'if' POO stays roughly where it is, you'd have to imagine that future years will look better. I figure it's similar with ENQ, but it doesn't hurt to diversify so I'm tempted to take a closer look at Harbour.

Another from the Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2023/mar/09/shell-ben-van-beurden-gets-lucky-harbour-energy-doesnt

Tries to put Harbour's RNS into perspective. Doesn't sound so bad the way they've written it (compared to the RNS).

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/09/north-seas-biggest-energy-producer-says-uk-windfall-tax-wiped-out-surge-in-profit

Surely the tax credits will be used up in 2 or 3 years after which we'll pay 75% tax on all UK profits. Under those conditions, buying ENQ would have to make the assumption that POO stays high I don't see why anyone would be that tempted to buy us out. That could all change if Hunt put in a sensible floor price (preferably 70 dollars or more) before the EPL of 35% kicked in. That would give us a chance to exploit our UK assets, help with energy independence, generate profits and diversify. After all the hard work that management have put in to save the company, and now to turn the company around I think it's shocking that we're being kicked in the teeth by the UK government and if Labour get in they're suggesting increasing taxation. Hardly a scenario likely to have lots of suitors knocking at the door.

Also the SVB banking problem. Brought down the financial sector and is causing wider ripples of concern. I think the wider market needs a reset and we may be seeing the start of that. Best to keep some cash as I suspect the best opportunities for profit are still to come.

I closed my short positions around 469. Good chance we'll rise back to 485, but from there more falls are entirely possible. If those declared short positions close, then this could move up quite quickly.

Agreed boyobach, for me it's crystal clear. I am not invested in OCDO, but it goes up and down and I can exploit the ups and the downs. Couldn't care less about the company itself (in a sense), although my view is that it is not going to go bump in the near future. The moment I freed myself from the shackles of being tied to a single company because I'd researched it so hard it had become a friend, was the moment that the stress went down (not away completely) and the profits started become more regular. I watch several (about 15) companies at anyone time and for a period they're within a price range that I feel relatively confident that they'll give me a profit. I'm largely no longer interested in the 'all or nothing'approach, the get rich quick (or easy) approach and more into trying to exploit swings on charts. Up until recently I was at 75-85% success rate on my trades. That dipped back to 65% rencently, but is rising again. As my pot increases in size, so can my stakes and therefore my profits. Sometimes I should do nothing at all, sometimes I actually do nothing at all, but sometimes (as is the case recently) I snatch at things through boredom, that's why my success rate has fallen I think. I have no interest in OCDO doing badly, my current short bias is just based on what I think will happen to the SP. There is no conspiracy, I'm not in a team of boiler room staff etc. I'm just sharing my thoughts.

Yes, so far so good. I'm not looking for a long term hold though and would close out fast if it started to look dangerous.

that was pretty well the way I viewed it to.

Are you sure he owns Enq? I found the article somewhat difficult to interpret.

The following is translated from your aricle. I wasn't at all clear that Berkshire Hathaway had positions in Enq.

Apparently, the oil company Enquest stands out with a very low profit multiple, just like many of its industry colleagues. Here it is possible to draw a current parallel to Buffett as his latest purchase, which was reported earlier this week, was made in the American oil company Occidental

Apparently, the oil company Enquest stands out with a very low profit multiple, just like many of its industry colleagues. Here it is possible to draw a current parallel to Buffett as his latest purchase, which was reported earlier this week, was made in the American oil company Occidental.

Consider the table as a gross list to look for interesting stocks in rather than as a proposal for a well-thought-out and composed stock portfolio.


Company ROE* (average 5 years) EBIT margin EV/EBIT P/E
EnQuest 23.2% 43.6% 1.9 0.8
Nile eagle group 28.4% 14.5% 5.8 8.0
PION Group 18.1% 3.5% 6.0 8.4
Boliden 17.1% 18.4% 7.3 9.3
Bilia 28.3% 5.9% 9.2 8.1
FM Mattsson 18.3% 13.4% 10.1 12.6
Dedicare 33.5% 7.7% 10.2 13.8
Nordic Waterproofing 16.9% 9.9% 11.5 12.3
B3 Consulting 21.9% 12.0% 11.6 15.3
Prevas 16.4% 12.0% 11.7 15.5
Softronic 23.0% 11.0% 12.0 16.6
Concentric 26.9% 16.7% 14.3 17.3
Thule 22.7% 16.8% 15.5 18.5
OEM International 29.3% 15.5% 17.2 21.4
Epiroc B 25.9% 22.4% 18.7 24.3
NCAB Group 32.4% 12.3% 20.9 26.1
Atlas Copco 30.6% 21.4% 21.2 25.8
BioGaia 23.8% 3

I don't want it to go there, it's just a risk that I believe is there. Common sense makes me believe it's highly unlikely, but this increased tax regime has made it more likely. Fingers crossed we're off to infinity and beyond, but best to be aware of the risks. The tone of Harbours RNS this morning was very clear. I have no intention of being offensive.

It's for sure not an easy game, but all you have to do is pick a direction and that would appear to be 50/50. Love the idea that it's a topsy turvey world. I supect that seeing 25 in 2025 is a big ask!.

However this market has good beta, trade it?

nice post chilt

I have to say Oxygen, that he brings to mind the classic expression from the office about whether he's a 'weasel faced ****, or an **** faced weasel'. As you say, unlike he'll be giving us any joy.

To view that as a 'positive story' would seem to me to be a contrarian view