Member Info for Stupmy

Maybe, I'll probably not get involved there, but I suspect that there'll be lot's of bargains on the UK markets when this has played out. Just a case of trying to be patient and keeping cash ready I think.

Credit suisse has now been bought out, AT1 bondholders wiped out (reversing the order of debt priority repayments as share holders are expected to get a fraction of their money back. I believe that the combined UBS/CS suisse now has a lending base of trillions, can't help wondering how stable that is. On the political stage the FED, and other austere bodies have no choice but to talk about it all being stable. Even if there is limited systemic structural risk, the banks will have to survive the emotional turmoil that could come about via negative perceptions on the individual and corporate level. Very interesting and very stressful for the moment.
I bought OCDO this morning, but am not looking to hold it.

'OCDO did well on Friday, surviving the market pressure during a ‘down’ day'

I wondered about that Boyobach also, OCDO does seem to be faring reasonably well during this mess.
Someone mentioned also that the Credit Suisse issue has been rumbling for months. That's true, but it might also be worth mentioning the 2008 crisis started with a bank collapse in March and the next evidence of the systemic nature of the problem came in September, so these things can take a while to work through.

Good link therapist, puts the case quite succinctly.

Cool, so quite by chance, I was right all along. It's next week! Have a lovely weekend fellas. The way the SP is holding 17 would suggest optimism for some sort of floor price mechanism

Well, I've got my 245/246 area. Just have to wait to find out whether it'll rise from here or fall. POO showing weakness again, talk of recession bring price of WTI to 45-55 range. That would certainly have the SP hear lower if it happened.

So in fact, nonsense! Sory, I didn't even look at the date.

Sorry Dumbly, my usual sloppy self. It was EnergyVoice. Heres'the link. The comment is buried somewhere in the article. But I've copied it out here
'The Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will deliver his fiscal update next week, and there’s a degree of optimism he may announce some changes to the EPL to make it more palatable.'
That's as someone on here suggested, i.e. not likely in the budget, more likely in the fiscal statement.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/488977/energy-economist-accuses-harbour-of-fancy-accounting-to-get-headlines/#

I was hoping to see 245/246 again today so that I could buy more, I don't think that's impossible, but I'll not at unless we do

SS17 on the HBR board posted a link from Oilvoice suggesting that Hunts details on the EPL will come next week.

Market doesn't like uncertainty

EnQuest PLC, 17 March 2023

Full year 2022 results revised date; expected results and 2023 guidance unchanged

EnQuest PLC ('EnQuest' or 'the Group') today announces a revised date for the publication of its preliminary financial results for the year ended 31 December 2022. Changes in the UK Energy Profits Levy have impacted the preparation and subsequent audit of the Group's financial statements.

As a result, the Group will now announce its results on 5 April 2023, meaning a delay to the previously planned release date of 23 March 2023.

The Board confirms that the 2022 financial results and 2023 guidance are expected to be in line with those provided in the trading update provided on 17 February 2023.

HBR has a value, but it seems to me to be a bet on an EPL floor and labour not getting in at the next election. At least with respect to a longer term view. As I said, I'm starting to accumulate. Some of that is/was supposed to be a quick trade, some was for the longer term.

Didn't someone call 'a jump in HBR' share price yesterday? We'll see. I hope so.

I can't help thinking I'm cheating myself here. I have an overall view that we'll see some terrible falls in the UK stockmarket e.g. IAG to 94p or lower and I have plenty of others I expect to drop back. If that was true, I cannot imagine that HBR would be the pretty horse running out of the burning barn unscathed. But, I also think it's on the bottom of a trading range here at 240-245 and we might see a bounce. This will in fact be my 3rd entry and I'm nicely under. So maybe I'm so convinced the back-story (plus an EPL floor) that I'm deluding myself. I'm worried about it but I'm adding more around 244/245

I could be wrong, but I'm thinking that the headwinds we're up against are
1) EPL with not floor
2) Possibility of a Labour government getting in (they've said they'd increase the tax on OG)
3) falling POO
4) debt (some of which is at 9%) that will take 2 years to pay down (possibly more)
After that, I'm not sure how you valued the assets, but if it was done without taking the EPL into account, then they may not be as valuable. Also, if Labour were elected and did raise tax, the value of the assets would likely be even less.
We're actually in a **** storm, but for the moment holding the 17p area reasonably well.

Another way of looking at this is that shareholders and bondholders have taken on the risk surrounding this company and many of us have held that risk on and off or continuously for several years with a view that the company would be able to save itself and eventually return to profit. That was never a certainty. So we risked our capital to support the management team. What the government have done is effectively nationalise 75% of our profits whilst simultaneously taking no risk whatsoever. How can any government, let alone a conservative government view that as OK. The politicians are nationalising our profits, profits that we need to turn the company into a success story, to pay for the mistakes we made in the past. Why are the government nationalising our profit? Easy, to pay for the mistakes they've been making in the past. The whole thing stinks. We need to be rewarded for supporting the company, the company needs to be rewarded for supporting the UK by paying 40% tax contributions to the government. And what happens, we get penalised.

I was kidding AIMOK, good to laugh from time to time, particularly times like this. Swiss national bank bailed out Credit Suisse to the tune of 54billion yesterday. They obviously thought it was at serious risk of collapse. If a good sized European bank does fail, the fallout could be absolutely shocking.
Odd that public opinion is so set against the OG industry that Hunt can do what he wants about it and the man on the street thinks it's great. When POO was 20 dollars a barrel and oil companies (particularly small independents) were making losses and building their debt piles no-one cared despite almost everyone benefitting from the industry every minute of every day in the form of energy, clothes, housing. Almost all of our manufactured goods require the OG industry. Now that POO is high enough to give those companies a chance to pay down the debts accumulated during the bad times, the government kicks us in the teeth and takes most of our profit. It's shocking. We need to be allowed to benefit from these higher (but historical normal) oil prices to get our businesses back into a healthy state. I makes me quite angry. The public and the banking sector don't seem to care, it's green or nothing nowadays.

Has he? I've not been following the lobbying side of things. Maybe that's what's led to the possibility of a floor in this tax on 'extra-ordinary profits'. **** me, when we're struggling survive, no breaks, when we're trying to recover, kick in the teeth and and when we're lobbying it's fo SP gains

AimOK, how come you got a tick and I didn't for the same post? Was that you KO? Well fo KO.

Obviously the details of the floor are important and on a realistic level the government are looking to raise more tax income. So, the price floor, assuming we get it, might not align with our wishes. But, for those with the stomach for it and with some spare cash, it might represent a good opportunity to claw back paper losses (at the moment ENQ shares feel like hold to maturity securities to me with no maturation date and no yield). Nothing in life other than nurses, taxes and death represent a certainty (that's so un-PC and I recognise that, but it's an expression from my youth and they're hard to shake off), so you have to run with 'probables'. I'd say, that the EPL as it stands is hugely eroding the value of NS oil companies, is unrelated to the statement from 1 January 2023, "the rate of the Energy Profits Levy will be increased to 35% TO ENSURE OIL AND GAS COMPANIES BENEFITTING FROM EXTRAORDINARY PRICES PAY THEIR FAIR SHARE.”' and is counterproductive to investment in UK fossil fuels and UK energy independence. So for those with the stomach for it (and it might not work) and some cash, then a bet on a price floor that is reasaonable raising the SP is likely to be a good bet in my view. I still think 14p is possible. In fact now it feels probable, that's not a support so it could go lower, but I think if a price floor goes in and we hit 14p that's the end of it and it's time to fill your boots.