Member Info for Stupmy

A 0.25% rate hike. US markets not responding well to that. BoE rate decision tomorrow, inflation rising so unlikely we'll not see a rate hike, maybe 0.25% min? Or will they go for 0.5%. Could be an interesting and not necessarily easy day tomorrow. Dow down 400 pips at the moment. Fingers crossed there'll be a recovery, but I'm happy not to be adding to my risk in overnight sessions. Things are pretty volatile out there and a recession here and the US looks increasingly likely.

A 0.25% rate hike. US markets not responding well to that. BoE rate decision tomorrow, inflation rising so unlikely we'll not see a rate hike, maybe 0.25% min? Or will they go for 0.5%. Could be an interesting and not necessarily easy day tomorrow. Brent still at nearly 76

regarding my earlier post about a possible diamond bottom. Obviously if it completes, a break to the downside could see 45p or so off the current SP. I closed out again today for a small profit simply so I don't accumulate overnight risk

I just posted this on ENQ "There was a pennant formed on Brent, very clear on the 2h chart. That has broken to the upside. Interestingly there are beautiful pennant patterns forming on ENQ and HBR and neither has broken out. I would hazard a guess, that the reason is that we're waiting to hear about changes to the EPL (tomorrow hopefully; thanks Pelle for you link to the discussion that will take place tomorrow)." Now, both ENQ and HBR are trying to break to upside now so they're not necessarily waiting for a change to the EPL. Brent is rising strongly on the back of inventory draws (see Oned1 post on ENQ).
Although I was looking at the short term pennant on the HBR chart, if we were to close over 256.5, it might in fact be an inverse h&s pattern formed from March 15 to now (2h chart). A break up from that would suggest a logical target around 275-280 for HBR

Well, it doesn't look like either ENQ or HBR want to wait for tomorrow. They're trying for the upside, presumably simply as a result of brent breaking upwards.

There was a pennant formed on Brent, very clear on the 2h chart. That has broken to the upside. Interestingly there are beautiful pennant patterns forming on ENQ and HBR and neither has broken out. I would hazard a guess, that the reason is that we're waiting to hear about changes to the EPL (tomorrow hopefully; thanks Pelle for you link to the discussion that will take place tomorrow).

Well it seems to have started Chilting. Looking good for the next few days. Retail Trading Statement on the 28th, let's hope there's nothing unexpected in that. Also Fed rate hike (or not) due this afternoon.

Not there yet, but it could be a diamond bottom pattern forming. No structure on the top right of the diamond yet so no way of really using that for the moment. Might be worth watching though. If it completes it would infer a break to the upside giving around 45p price gain.

I've had another pop at it long this morning at the moment I'm less than a penny down. I'm doing better on Carnival and Harbour. Will probably drop this before close regardless of profit or loss.

We're the 21/03 today. The change in holdings happened on the 17th so theoretically it should be on the short tracker record if it was a change in stock on loan. I think the data is 48h old. Should be there already

I did wonder whether it could be related to altered short positions, but really didn't understand it. Currently short tracker has it 6.1 of stock on loan and the only change in short on the 17th was D1 capital partners (not on the list in the RNS) who dropped the short 0.18% to 1.01% of OCDO's stock on loan. These things can be complicated and I guess D1 capital partners could be hidden behind the BR companies but I doubt it.

Thanks Croc, at least it's not just me that found it perplexing.

I closed out again last night for a fraction of a penny profit. I'm worried about accumulating risk so I'm trying to stick to day trading for the moment.
There's a holdings RNS this morning and to be honest I don't understand it all. Could anyone explain it to me?

In fact they might be better off with a sail than a wind tower.

Do solar panels get enough energy from the northern lights?! Lot of cloud cover up there!

Martinen, I don't know about evidence, but I think things are harder for everyone. Some of the oil workers are for sure on good salaries and are treated well (month on month off for Rigworkers, at least it was in my day). I think the problem is that costs are going up (fuel, food, heating, clothing) and people want salaries to go up too. God forbid having to give one of the direct debits for Netflix or a car that can't really be afforded. Society is me me me, I, I, I, self, self self. That's because human nature can't be changed, it can change, but that takes many years and often some tough experiences. Our problem now is that the people asking for higher salaries often don't appreciate that the businesses they're working in are not throwing off 'extra-ordinary profits' and what profit there, although sometimes good is going to repair the damage done during the hard times. Let's take COVID lockdowns as an example, although that's a simplistic extreme that doesn't come close to fully explaining the debt on the NS oil independents. We can all see that lockdowns wiped out profit and therefore led to elevated debt and elevated risk to going concerns. Now we need that profit to get back to a safe footing. After which is life is rosy, maybe it's the time to sort out rewards of one sort or another for the work force. Salary increases are not the only way to keep the workers happy and not always the best. Share ownership schemes might bring with them some motivation to look after the business as well as looking after themselves. There are other incentivising approaches also that don't tie the company into paying high salaries during difficult periods.

That's the same on shorttracker. citadel raised by 0,01% to get to the 0.5 declarable level. Makes you wonder they did it simply to ensure it was public and generate some negative sentiment. That 0.01% isn't worth a lot to them and doesn't materially change their risk

I'm trying again 5 or 6p further down. Might be a short term bullish divergenceof price from stochs/RSI.

I've seen things go bad on open on the US markets. Very volatile and shaky. I've closed this mornings long here as I've lost my nerve. 0.3p profit! I made 11p on FRES and don't want that eaten by a loss here.

Couldn't come at a better time, EPL reducing NS oil companies asset valuations, potentially leading to them having to put more money aside to cover decomissioning work (costs might exceed the value of some assets), reducing their capacity to cover debt, , falling oil prices and now potentially industrial action. Where are these 'extraordinary profits' that were supposedly used to instigate the EPL in the first place. Good god, you'd think the survival of these companies was more important in the longer term. What a crazy world. Industrial action at a time the industry is on it's knees.