Member Info for Stupmy

OK, interesting. Your data in the case is much more interesting. Thanks Martinen.

That's almost spooky, ST has just updated to show Citadel reducing to 0.47 from 0.5%. Spooky they updated as we discussed it, but it's also only 24h out of date rather than the typical 48. That still doesn't explain all of the difference between the two data sources. ST still has ENQ at a total of 0.47% unless I'm missing something. So all of the ST short data relates to Citadel

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B635TG28/

OK, shorttracker has it at 0.5% after citadel increased by 0.01% on Mar 13th. The shorttracker data is 48h out of date, but it still doesn't obviously fit with your data Martinen. You're talking about citadels short reducing yesterday your data is more up to date than ST, but whose holding the other 2% and when was it last changed. I can't see that on ST?

Some interest from buyers so I've started a small positin. I still think we'll see 111-112, but no-one can see into the future. FOLO and all that jazz

Completely agree downbutnotout. When it settles. i'll buy more.

Also Virgin Voyages (privately held) trying to get another fund raise off and suggesting their cruises are choc a bloc. I think the demand is there and TUI (once all of this is really over) will be well placed to move forward. I'd imagine, others that have loaded up on debt to cover the COVID period, have yet to raise what they need. If that's true, it would make sense for shareholders from related companies to migrate to TUI on the assumption that 3 fundraises is the end of it. Of course it may not happen like that, but if it did, our SP would like move up quite a lot.

I'm still hoping that the government take a more sensible view of the EPL, in the original documentation the 'E' was supposed to stand for "extraordinary', since then there have been no extraordinary profits. If we get a floor or structured floor on the EPL we'll see some relief on the SP. I think it's really important and although I'm happy to trade around the small swings. I'm not adding anything serious now. I'm looking at companies less impacted. It's a real nasty way to treat small independet NS oil companies. If the POO rises, it should encourage the government to make the tax equitable, but it probably won't, it'll probably make the public believe even more than they currently do that the NS oilers are raking it in and should quite rightly be taxed to the hilt. In that respect, I think rising oil prices might be counterproductive to us.

Sorry that link was a hopefull effort at posting the chart.

HBR results 9/03/2023. Here's what happened. Closed on the 8th around 287. Rose on the 9th to around 296. Then fell back on negative sentiment and falling POO to 228. That drop represents approx 23% fall from the peak on th 10th or about 20% from it's closing price on the 8th. If ENQ does the same, we might expect to see 15.2p. Don't forget there's a gap to 14p or so. That might very close. The EPL has royally shafted NS oil companies. I don't think tomorrow will be presented optimistically. The results will be presented as done by HBR as a challenge to the government on the EPL. My view, for what it's worth.

04.04.2023_10.46.30_REC

I'm pretty sure we'll see 111-112 or lower first, at which point I'll be looking for signs that the SP will turn to the upside. From memory, I dropped my positions around 129 so it might turn out to be a good trade.

No significant change in the declared short positions over the resutls period so there's no evidence that the price action related to short covering. Either genuine demand for the shares or short covering from non-declared positions are possible I guess. Price falling back a little though

Managed to get some more around 239 on open. Not been able to buy HBR though

Hexam/Golitha, thanks both for the discussion. Very interesting and useful

The 5.6 (5.62 to be precise came from Golitha's post at 16:28 Hexam. This is the actual extract from his post "With shares at £16 post consolidation MCAP was around £2.85 Billion but shares in issue post RI will be close to three times in number at over 500 Million. Assuming no immediate justification to a change in MCAP the share price of £16 falls to £5.62! "

Also no apologies needed, I'm just trying to understand this. If market forces wanted 5.62, that's a hell of a haircut at least temporarily for all holders pre-RI. For Alexei, it must be making his eyes water "TUI’s biggest investor, Unifirm Ltd., is owned by the family of Russian billionaire Alexey Mordashov, who’s been sanctioned by the European Union and who indirectly holds 30.91% in the company. However, due to the EU sanctions, Alexey will not participate in the rights issue. " That was taken from the following article.
https://www.asktraders.com/analysis/tui-shares-crashed-51-2-on-e1-8bn-rights-issue-whats-next/

Yes Hexam, I get that for the precision. I was doing it in a lazy way. Thanks to all of you for helping me to understand this.

This does become more significant though if the theoretical value of the shares based on market cap is actually 5.6 pounds. Is this right or has Golitha assumed more shares in issue than there actually will be. How do the TERP and the SP based on market cap relate to each other. Should they not be the same?

Sorry, correction the loss would be around 19 pounds on every 3 shares held not 25 (I didn't subtract the value of the rights). But a 19 pound loss for each 42 pounds of initial investment is a lot (45%)

In my previous example in the discussion with Hexam (but open to anyone) I used the TERP of around 7.4. But if Golitha's extimated based on market cap is correct then it's worth considering that so
14-5.6 x 3 = 25.2 (loss on 3 shares initially held)
5.6-4.88 x 8 = 5.76 (value of 8 rights)
If this were to happen, or hold validity, then selling the rights would leave you 25 pounds or so out of pocket for every 3 shares. A loss of 25 pounds on an initial holding of 3 x 14 = 42 pounds is substantial. Could anyone check this, it seems to be an extra-ordinary loss and I guess I must have made a mistake somewhere.

Golitha, I agree completely and think what you've written is important.

But what does that actually leave the TERP meaning? I am very confused. What you're saying and I accept, is that this might not be a bag of money lying on the path with no owner.

Right I think I've got you. So assuming the TERP is 7.4 (just for example), you start at 14 with 3 shares and that drops to the TERP of 7.4 losing you 3 x 6.6 = 19.8 pounds. But you have 8 rights to buy at 4.86 for those 3 shares you initially held. Assuming you sell the rights when the SP = the Terp, you get 7.4-4.88 x 8 = 20.32 in this case so you don't take a loss. However, if you sell the rights and the SP is below the TERP, you will make a loss that increases the further below the TERP the SP falls. Is that it?

The 4.86 is fixed so that won't change, but due to exchange rate fluctuations I believe others are being advised to have about 5;10 available for each right you take up. If you're selling the rights then the price varies according to the difference in the 4.86 figure and the current SP. That's 6.20 or so now so your rights would sell for around 1.34 ballpark. The bigger the difference between your 4.86 and the SP the more valuable you're rights are. If the SP was 4.86, you're rights would be worth nothing as you can just buy in the open market.