Member Info for Stupmy

I didn't try G, but from what I understand they were changing hands for around 40 p at one point. That could have given me an entry at 40p plus the cost of the shares (nominally 4.88; but quoted by some as 5:10 with forex).

I get that Mike and it makes sense. If the rights were mopped up in large quantities, which fits with a rise in value from 40p or so back above a pound. Will be very interesting. I actually don't have a strong view on where the price will go, just wanted to explore the possibilities I guess and be ready to exploit any weakness. This won't be popular, but because I think TUI is in better shape and the SP will rise to and beyond the TERP, I want it to drop to 488 or 500. I'm kicking myself for not buying rights at 40p. That was because I hadn't fully crystalised my understanding of all of this. Thanks to this board I'll be better prepared should other opportunties arise in the future. If it does drop, I'll double my holding. If it rises I'll make a profit at some time in the future when I sell. As long as we don't get an international event that interferes with holidays or another COVID like situation I think this will rise a lot either from here from a low associated with the RI process. Thanks for the reply, I hadn't thought about the influence of the rapid buying of rights on the future rump. Will be very interesting.

The discussion on this bb has been top notch and has clarified a fair bit for me. This is how I see the next phases. We have the elimination of outstanding rights on the 11 or 12th (can't remember which), then there's time to get the shares to those who've taken up their rights. My guess is that most will hold those shares in the near term in the hope that the SP will rise to the TERP or above. At that time they'll start selling out to rationalise the size of their positions and clawy back paper losses. I think that side of things should leave an orderly market and will not necessarily cause a further drop in the SP. Then there's the rump. That is likely to be reasonably big in my view and will be held by the underwriters. They will not want to hold those shares and will likely feed them into the market. That will depress the SP and my guess is that selling from the underwriters will happen at any price above 4.88. That means to my mind that the underwriters alone could drive the SP down to around 4.88-500p. PI's might see that drop in SP as evidence that there is in fact something wrong fundamentally with this market and will drop some of their shares and this could cause the SP to drop below the 4.88 ex-rights level which could trigger more to sell. I think it's fascinating and as many have previously stated, the price of shares on the open market often comes down to or below the rights issue price during these events. The discussion on this board (plus a bit of background knowledge) has allowed me to better understand this process so thankyou all. So much better than the nasty comments on so many bb's. I bought shares (mean entry of around 590 now) plus some leveraged positions. I won't be adding until I see how the market responds to the underwriters rump holding.
GLA whatever you decide and however you read this. Very happy to have meat put on the bones of what I've said above, or to be told I'm mistaken in my thought processes.

Good finish Stille, bodes well. However, until the new shares hit the market (there are a lot of them) it's best to be 'on your toes'.

I went to Marakesh, was helped through customs (in a car) by lots of very helpful young men who wanted paying for it.

0.61% to a total of 3.63%. Yesterday. I assume they got stung.

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?isin=DE000TUAG000&land=germany

You have to sell the rights before the value is available for purchase of shares. I think that's confusion around semantics. If you sell them, I assume the funds become available immediately to purchase shares. I'm not recommending anything, just saying it sounds like there's a bit of confusion between you and HL

iParsnip, that's a simple bet on what is going to happen in the future. If you have a strong convictiont that the SP will drop from here, then selling now and buying back lower is a clear win. Your problem is that no-one can tell you what is going to happen in the future. It is entirely possible that the SP could come down again as people anticipate PI selling when the ex-rights shares can enter the market. Many PI's are in a similar position as you, so what you are feeling is being felt by many people. That will drive the market for a period, until those that need to quickly rationalise their holdings have done so. After that, there me a period of consolidation and then in my view the SP will rise. But it's a simple gamble on your part. If you sell up, you will certainly crystalise your loss. That's certain. What isn't certain is that the SP will fall enough for you to get an entry that is sufficiently better to make the risk worthwhile. What is probable, is that at some point after the 24th April, the SP will rise well above it's current level. In my view, if possible, your safest course is now to take up your rights.

Mike, would that even be legal? Don't MM's just facilitate the market and take their profits from the volume? In theory I thought they don't have any vested interest in the underlying security/market?

Berenberg's downgrade from buy to hold with target held at 325p on Apr 3rd seems to have knocked confidence a little.
POO has risen and I am staying long for the time being

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/HTG/berenberg-downgrades-hunting-to-hold-rc4tjqyks07dhv2.html

Yes agreed NKG, I'm pencilling that in for after June rightly or wrongly and I think that it would be good to be shot of most equities at that point. I'll aim to do exactly that.

Interesting point MB, about crystalisation of losses for tax purposes. B&B though is (or was) illegal I think, you mean B&ISA

There's a pretty good chance this will come back off again. When can the x-rights shares be sold? When will they be available to the market. At the point they become available and in the days/weeks following, many will be sold and that will hold back the price rises. It might provide further opportunities to buy. What you're seeing now, may be demand (recognition of the discount to the TERP), it probably means 'buy the pull backs'. The speed of it though suggests a short squeeze (although shorttracker shows no declarable shorts).

While looking for info on when the ex-rights shares will start to sell/hit the market, I found this. Might be interesting to some. It was to me.

https://www.investors.com/ibd-university/how-to-sell/8-week-hold/

If AB is suggesting a floor of 60-70 dollars a barrel is fair, it suggests our b/e price for a barrel is actually lower than that. That would suggest that Stevo's b/e of 70 is too high (as suggested by Jan). I'm not being critical Stevo as you did the work not me, but it would hint at us being profitable at lower levels

Let me modify that, the price is now 107.9 so it's achieved the small drop I hoped for. This could repesent an entry point. I'll wait for a signal that it does, before adding.

I doubled yesterday around 557. My average is now around 590. I have also added to my leveraged position. I've not found an answer as to when the XR shares can be sold. If anyone knows, it's a genuine question. We could still see a sell off and that could be quite hard so there may still be waves to ride/exploit.

The SP just ticked up but failed to break out of it's descending channel. Seems there are buyers, but not enough momentum. If the price drops back to 108.3 or below. I will start to accumulate. We're almost there at 108.7.

Looks like that's reversed for the moment Stille. When are people able to trade their XR shares? Is it after the 24th?

If yesterdays closing price was 557, it might signal a bounce. But we have 18 days until we know how big the rump is. When is it possible to sell the XR shares? I assume after the 24th? If that's the case it will perhaps take a while to settle even after the 24th.

There's a way to check. Use yahoo finance and it will give you every closing price for every day since I don't know when. I have other things to do so I'm not going to check, but all of the prices for the period you talk about will be there.