Member Info for Stupmy

There are guru's out there that would have you believe that the first drop in interest rates will signal the start of the next leg down in the general markets and that it could be a big correction this time round.

Are you on the right board?

I'm looking closely now as well. SP is 25p. I can see a reason to believe we'll get to 24.5 or lower. Looking back at the January update, it's clear there's an expectation that trading will be difficult, but they also state they expect it to be in-line with market expectations. In addition there was some substantial director buying in feb around 40p. 25 p seems pretty low to me. I've not bought any yet, but I am tempted. FY results due around May 24th (from memory).

Manz, it shouldn't be that 'understandable', the facts and the likely outcome are there. The rest if fear and loathing. Close off the emotional side and work with the likely outcome. This is most likely to lead to a rise in SP, but we may bounce about and even hit or exceed the RI price before the market settles. Really it is very important here to be calm, be patient and do whatever you need to do to lower your average entries. This is of course simply my view, but as I prevously stated, RI have happened before, there is a human nature element here that rinses and repeats time and time again. Take advantage of that to avoid futher losses and potentially make some profits.

It's what bb's are 4 Trent, not all the *****ing that goes on. So no problem if my experience helps. Personally it annoys me that they do it. But, once you've understood it's real, you can work around it to some extent at least.

Yes, don't get too excited Strike, it's not 'all good'.

Selecta, it's exactly what happens. They track your traffic on the site with cookies. The 2nd/3rd time you visit having started your research, the prices rise, In some cases the apparently available seats/places fall. It's not rocket science it's marketing. They use FOMO to try to force bookings. Do your research on one computer and make your bookings on another or at least try clearing your cache and removing cookies betweeen research and booking. The differences are not trivial. It leads me to another point related to the SP. There's been some great discussion on here regarding the RI. iParsnip is clearly very in a very uncomfortable spot (iP, you're just an example and I do feel for your position). Having got to the deadline for trading the rights, SP rose, people became more confident, then it's fallen back. Some on here have suggested that possibility and the idea of volatility until the rump (whatever that is) has been dissipated into the general market. But now, the stress is rising and people are worried again. If the SP now dips below the previous lows (potential double bottom around 539, it'll probably drop further to or beyond the RI price of around 488. That is already frightening share holders and there are already signs that that fear will lead to selling. Now, no-one can see into the future (least of all me), but this is not the first ever RI, not even the the first for TUI. There is a history of human behaviour around RI's. The price action to and somewhat beyond the 24th is going to be largely determined by human nature. That can't be changed. you can just do your best to grit your teeth and live with some discomfort for a while or sell out. My own view is that selling out will turn out to be an error with a little bit of time. I'm still hoping to double, but already have a considerable long holding. GLA and try to be rational and overcome your own programming.

PTB, it's reading from ostensibly legit sources. I have no strong opinion. I know that making a loss is bad so I avoid stocks with higher apparent risk and deal with (where possible) the deadly dull ones that seem due a swing up. I'm not trying to put a downer on the board, but am astonished by the level of optimism here.

Interesting indeed. Not random. Something is in the works. I hope it's good for SH's! The M&A comment in recent RNS was intrigueing and I'd guess not without background.

My view of the update was that churn was increasing (ala Marshal Wace's original thesis) and that signing up new business was slowing. They stated that their revenues were being protected by having 'mulit-year contracts'. I viewed all of this as in-line with MW's original comments on why they were short. I closed out my long positions a while ago. And that has so far proved to be correct. When you look at the members of the Board involved in the sharp paractice at ARM and then consider the comments from respeced sources suggesting sharp practice may also be occurring at DARK, it adds a level of potential risk that makes it seem to me to defy logic that so many on here are so optimistic.

I have to say, I didn't find their update at all reassuring. For me it rather played towards Marshal Wace's view which is negative for DARK. I have no exposure, but watch from time to time.

Reading the unbridled positivity that remains on this board is quite a shock to me. Did you guys not read the recent trading update? Anyway, for those interested in an alternative view, citywire have done a piece on DARK in their 'expert view' section. Not in depth, but perhaps of interest.

https://citywire.com/funds-insider/news/expert-view-imperial-brands-darktrace-tesco-close-brothers-oxford-biomedica/a2414364?re=107807&refea=351732

I have yesterdays price action as suggestive of a logical target at 122-123. That co-incidese with closure of a tiny gap on the 2h chart, but that's insignificant in my view. It would seem more likely that we'd see 124-125 before any decision on further price movement.

MSM, long looks right for the moment. SP starting to move to the upside. Took a bit longer than I'd anticipated, but I'm hoping to benefit.

Well SP is keen to test that prevous low at 539 from Apr 5th. It's going to get interesting from here that's for sure.

It makes sense, but it doesn't mean it's right. I'm happy to have bougth some above the 539 low so far and can wait to see how the next few days play out. Might be quite volatile with any move to the upside being jumped on by FOMO money.

TUI currently the 4th most shorted share in Germany. 0.61% added today to bring it up to 3.74% in total. It seems that others believe that there's a good chance of a drop in the SP. No-idea if this is related to completion of the RI process (the rump) or a longer term view.

Thanks Golitha, didn't realise they got no rights at all. I assume should they wish to, they'll be able to find a way to buy rights on the open market to protect their positions, that could in fact reduce any rump if it were to happen.

One or two have suggested that the rump will not be large. Could I ask those with knowledge of such things.

What happens to the shares that Mordashow would have been eligible for had he not been sanctioned? Do they not go directly to the underwriters? Would that on it's own not suggest there will be a significant rump to this RI that will be moved to market soon after the 24th?

G, it's the fact that I didn't understand the process in the crystal clear way that Hexam does, that led me to miss out on the opportunity to buy the rights at or below 40p. I won't do it now, for a couple of reasons. 1) they've risen in price so the advantage to buying them is no longer attractive to me 2) even if they were still at or below 40p, I'm not that confident I could sort out accepting the rights before they expire. But I've learned a lot from the discussion on this board and would hope to be better mentally prepared in the future.