Member Info for Stupmy

i've set one limit buy around the offer price. Other than that I've accumulated enough shares and leverage to now ride it out. My personal view now is that any close above 527/528 will see us move up to 757/758 over the coming weeks.

GLA whatever your decisions on this.

I guess today will be the first full day with all shares available to the market. Should tell us something about sentiment and the likelihood of the SP dropping too or beyond the RI price. Even if there's nothing dramatic today, I'd imagine we'll have a period of churn and that there is a risk that nervous holders could be spooked if there are any jerky down moves.
GLA. Should the opportunity arise, I'd be aiming to add shares.

that's quite a big drop from over 6% a week or so ago to under 4% now.

Thanks Elloflo, until the majority of those taking up their rights, have access to their shares, we can't really tell what's happening here. Be interested to hear when they land in peoples accounts. I had no rights or I'd be telling you about mine.

Thanks Rickmeister, but there were people on the bb saying they had not received their shares in their accounts yet. Question of them arriving with the trading companies, but not yet available to the 'owners' if you like. I was wondering whether anyone actually had them in their accounts or conversely whether some did not yet receive them. Obviously, those that don't have them can't trade them, but if they're all available for trading then what we're seeing in the market becomes much more important now.

I think it's an important question, are the ex rights shares now in accounts and available to trade? I'd appreciate any answers on this as this should mark the final stage of the process. Before that happens, we can't know what the market reaction is really going to be.

That fact that some can't trade their ex-RI shares might provide a soft opening day. Certainly no evidence of a run for the exits

'Will avoid German companies in the future!'

Yes, for sure, it's the german ones you have to look out for, they're all rubbish! If you really think that way Tony, it doesn't bode well for your investing future. Why not pay a fundmanager to do it for you instead (obviously avoiding Garman equities).

Shorts up by 0.37% in Germany yesterday. Would love to know their ratonale

Sorry, not 'commercial retail', I meant 'commercial real estate'

Still plenty of risk foxy. Commercial retail is just one aspect of debt/bonds/loans that may need to be marked to market in the near future. Those debts are likely losing money. Certainly the US the big banks are 'quietly' off loading that debt before it becomes too big a problem. People are still doing their best to work from home, occupancy isn't what it should be, interest rates on debt is increasing. What borrowing/lending might have made a lot of business sense from both ends 3 or 4 years ago, looks less likely to pay a return in the current climate. There are other examples that might not look as pretty as you'd hope they should, but they're not attracting very much mainstream attention for the moment. In my view a recession is possible this year and it could very well be a hard landing for markets and if it does happen then the pretty horses will come running out of the burning equity barn with the nags. Best to keep some cash on hand

Whizz Air, Carnival, IAG and EZJ amongst todays biggest fallers. Could be the lack of further falls here presage the bottom. I guess Monday will tell us.

Gap up to 534 on open was fast, I assume that's short covering. Might not show up in official data though if it's positions below 0.5%. If something similar happened in Germany I might see it. If there is some short covering, then it suggests that those shorting think they're close to the max of what they're going to get.

I wondered that out loud on the ENQ board. Aterall the original wording of the documentation for the EPL related to taxing the 'extra-ordinary' profits of NS oil companies. Those disappeared before the legislation came into place. It has nothing to do with extra-ordinary profits. It's additional tax burden on all profits. I was told the government can do what they want and there is no legal recourse. I still wonder though, although if it could be legally challenged, I'd have imagined it already would have been.

Down yesterday by 0.93% to 5.31%. That's quite a big drop.

Gotcha, confused myself betrween GBP/Euros.

What does that mean wrt to the RI price. It's Euro 5.55 in Germany and around 4.88 GBP in the UK. So on the day the RI shares start trading in Germany it would seem the SP dropped 10% or so below the RI price? So, should that happen on Monday in the UK market then we might expect to see further falls here too. If it was equivalent to the German market then from here 10% might be around 470? Does that make sense or am I mis-interpreting it?

It's funny Golitha how some personality types feel the need to state the future with certainty. Which of course is a warning sign that they're not to be trusted at all. As you say, with hindsight there will be plenty of people stating the 'I told you say' rhetoric. Fine, it's all noise. I've not the got the bottom, very rarely do (although I may have with HTG this morning) and I'll not get the top. But somewhere in that range I'll come out with a profit if I'm right to feel bullish on TUI. Anything coud happen mind. This could go further down, and a drop of that nature could be due to leveraged positions being put under pressure. I can't see any partiular logic to shareholders selling at the moment, but it doesn't mean they won't. I agree with all you're saying. The only certainty in life is taxes, death and silly posters on bb's in my view.

That was always the theoretical advantage of a quick decision to sell the rights then hope for the RI price on the shares beatroot. So good effort on that part. Complication being, that the RI price was never the difference between the TERP at 736 and the RI SP at 4.88 so that made that decision difficult and even more difficult as you had to assume the SP would then drop the RI price or close. Everything's easy in hindsight. Interesting now that sellers seem to have it (not logical; but a predicatable part of human nature). If more holders get unsettled, the SP could drop further still. I will personally be adding to my holding.

Well, that's come off a lot harder than I expected so happy not to have rushed to add back.