Member Info for Stupmy

We're going pretty low Jeffrey. Brent at 7759 at the moment. US500 also down. If there's stabilisation overnight, tomorrow may not be at all pretty.

There's a certain irony there C26, you're posting very regular to the downside, does it mean you are insecure about the views you are posting? Now the RI is out of the way and the churn that needs to happen is happening, the board seems to be descending into chaos. No-one can see into the future, you have to take a view and run with it. My view is long and I'm long. C26 you're view appears to be short, I assume you're actually not short because you have no faith in your own thesis.

It's a valid point botbot, I've not looked at Tesla, but there are TA related ideas that work sometimes and not others. Take gaps, they mostly fill, but predicting when they'll fill is a hard business indeed. Now look at some of the tech stocks like Amazon and you'll see their SP ascent is full of gaps and they haven't yet (not checked lately) filled. So it just sings to the fact that no-one can see into the future, some of these ideas help to increase the chances of getting good entries and avoiding bad ones though. They sometimes do give you a heads up on stuff that's in the pipeline too as the more significant players ratonalise positions if they perceive increasing risk and it's those players very often that push SP's out of their normal ranges. Some dismiss TA/charts as voodoo and nonsense, but it's just a way of visualising what's happening wrt to buyers and sellers and when something moves outside of an expected range, it's worth having a think about why that might be.

I've come across the question previously, but never investigated it. Personally I doubt that 8% of stock is short on TUI. But I don't know that for a fact.

Worth checking to see whether one set of data is declared shorts over 0.5% and the other is total declared shorts or total stock on loan. It's a possible source of difference between the 2 data sets, although just speculation my part.

And the link!! Sorry.

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&lei=Fu1IZPjKMLKCkdUPy7iQqAo&q=symmetrical%20triangle%20pattern&ved=2ahUKEwj4rcSdnMf-AhUyQaQEHUscBKUQsKwBKAB6BAhtEAE

fordy, that lot makes sense to me. I've been following and trading the leisure industry via other companies e.g. TUI and the airlines. Most are reporting good figures for the moment. Branson's Virgin Voyages (not sure it's the current name; privately held in the US) is looking to raise capital to expand it's fleet as it views cruising as so positive. I agree that for the moment the outlook seems to be good. I stopped paying attention to Carnival around 1300-1400 per share as I expected it to fall back to current levels. It's now here and I'm more interested. Although the risk of dilution does worry me. It was a genuine question, and I have no idea as to whether it will happen. From a TA perspective, the SP is very fragile and is currently threatening a break to the down-side from the triangle I already mentioned. That doesn't fit with the positive outlook for Carnival and the sector in general. If you wanted to go further into that, Bullkowsk's work would suggest that a close below 640 actually brings a target of around 300p into play. I'm not saying for one minute the SP will hit that level, but from memory Bullkowski's work suggests that the target of a triangle break out is hit > 50% of the time. A tradeable move happens much more frequently than that. To get the SP to anything close would likely require a fund-raising of some sort. It's something to watch. The nature of risk is that it's often hidden in plain site and yet we ignore it until it's realised. TUI did a 10 for 1 consolidation prior to it's latest raise. If Carnival consolidated, it might be another sign that one should take a lot of care here.

Here's a link from investopedia (couldn't quickly find bullkowski's stuff with google and couldn't be bothered to search out his encyclopedias for this post)

Nonsense Bhant. The company's finances come first. I hold that it is a non-argument, but that I have no idea whether a capital raise of some-sort is imminent. I am just acutely aware of the pain that the TUI shareholders have suffered as TUI have stablised their finances. 2 RI's, a 10-1 consolidation then what is theoretically a final 8 for 3 RI. After the ravages of COVID, many travel companies are carrying more debt than is ideal and some of them are taking hard medicine now to try to stay ahead of the curve. I would personally recommend caution here.

I'd have argued that 10,000 shares allocated is neither here not there and will not influence the likelihood of a RI. If there was one at a price discounted to the market price at the time of annoucement, the directors would also be eligible to participate. In fact I'd have argued that non-participation would have negative implications regarding how they viewed the likely returns to investors. For example, there's no need to be overly negative or dramatic, they may view other market opportunities as more attractive on a risk return basis than Carnival. I'd say your point is a non-argument.
I'd also say that I have no clue as to whether they plan a RI or not. I'm just looking for sensible views. COVID was not kind to the leisure industry and inflation is not kind to those carrying non-fixed or short term fixed debt.

The price is currently pretty well bang on a rising tl support from Oct 11th, Dec 29th (not quite touched), Mar 20th (this year), Mar 28th (not quite touched) and now today. The SP pattern is a triangle and the rising tl support forms the base. Currently the chart set-up looks more negative than positive to me. A close below 640, would bring into play potential supports at around 613, 555 and 485. If the price does break down fromt hat triangle (close below 640), it might be telling you something is not quite right. Is Carnival at risk of a TUI moment (RI)? TUI seem to have been ahead of the game with capitalisation and have apparently 'stabilised their ship' (excuse the pun). That has been a very painful process for many shareholders with an 8 for 3 RI. Does anyone have a feel for whether Carnival are likely to follow a similar route to reduce the cost of servicing their debt?

Going to be interesting. I suspect we'll see the price hit or exceed 726 or so, despite the RNS apparently being positive. I'll wait to re-enter here. I'm trading the beta and think at sometime in the near future I will see the above price, maybe today/this week.

Actually, I'm looking now and trades of 150,000 are going through in single transactions, then the 297,000 is a single protected trade. Basically I was just looking to see if I could find what you described Mike. In fact I think there's a 245,000 share trade that's ordinary. Also there's one of 18,200 or so that a single protected transaction. Could this last one, be part of the larger 2 million or so trades being discussed earlier? If so, then by checking the individual trades as they occur, it might be possible to know that large single protected transactions are being worked? Very interesting.

Thanks Mike, learned something else. I figured it wasn't a single on market sale so that explanation clears that up. Makes sense to me also that such large transactions are broken up to encourage an orderly market rather than encourage volatility. I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist personally so happy to accept it as normal market functioning. And as you've proved, if you can be bothered (i.e. if these trades are sufficiently interesting to you) then you can check it quite quickly and increase you're understanding of it. Probably a good idea in fact, at least that way, when other posters mention large trades, you can quickly get a feel for what's going on, rather than get panicked into a silly move. For me, I'll hold everything probably for at least a month. Even if there is going to be some churn over the coming days (and I'm betting there will be churn in excess of a normal trading period), my view is that in 4-8 weeks we'll probably have a SP of around 760p or more. Obviously no-one can see into the future so that's not advice to others.

I've just checked and normal market size is 1000 shares. I cannot for one moment believe that single trades of 2 million shares do not alter the price on the open market if they are transacted on the open market. Are you sure these transactions are not 'off-market' if you like. Total volume today according to LSE was just under 3.9million.

That's so far above normal market size that it's hard to believe it goes through the normal channels. Are you sure that buys/sells of that size are not off-market (sorry I've never bothered to learn the specific terms for all the different trade types).

Of course Mike and I don't know that short dilution explains the drop over the last week. I doubt the maths supports that, but at some point that data would/will be updated to reflect the larger share base. Obviously in addition we may have short opening, increasing, decreasing and closing as well. It was just something I'd not thought about and it tickled me.

That's an interesting idea and one I'd not thought about. Shorts dilution. As the number of shares on the market increases, the % short drops, I love this discussion board. So often it's teaching me stuff, clarifying stuff and making sense, so often it's a real discussion board where ideas and thoughts are exchanged. It's without a doubt the most constructive board I've recently been part of. Now maybe a good time to stop the avocet/c26... tit for tat nonsense.
Fingers crossed there's not much to get stressed about from now!

i've set one limit buy around the offer price. Other than that I've accumulated enough shares and leverage to now ride it out. My personal view now is that any close above 527/528 will see us move up to 757/758 over the coming weeks.

GLA whatever your decisions on this.

I guess today will be the first full day with all shares available to the market. Should tell us something about sentiment and the likelihood of the SP dropping too or beyond the RI price. Even if there's nothing dramatic today, I'd imagine we'll have a period of churn and that there is a risk that nervous holders could be spooked if there are any jerky down moves.
GLA. Should the opportunity arise, I'd be aiming to add shares.

that's quite a big drop from over 6% a week or so ago to under 4% now.