Member Info for Stupmy

Run up to results which we have a handle on from the company itself and it's peers in the sector. Very unlikely to be negative so the odds of a downside surprise seem low. Taken with the aparently disparity between the current SP and the TERP (assuming the TERP represents the true value of the business: I assume that). Then we're likely to see a rise into results, unlikely to see a drop because of the results and we just have to be patient for the RI to reach an equilibrium. We could see selling for PI's around 540 (about 10% above RI price) and then from the instiutions above 560 (where they bought up the rump). It all looks orderly for the moment and the most likely outcome is a rise in the SP. I'd caution though that due to the interest rate rises, those living on credit are defaulting at a higher rate and at some point, discretionary spendiong will be hit. For the moment I'd imagine we have a 2-3 mths of relative safety. But I'm no expert.

I have to go out, but at the moment it looks likely to finish strongly for the day. That often bodes well for the next trading day open. So GLA, have a great weekend and let's have a fab next week. See you tuesday.

I just can't get that 1 share off my mind. Very untidy, must be my autistic side. Needs dealing with for me sleep better.

If things look good, I'll make good that one odd share that doesn't sit easy on my conscience and buy an x999 figure probably 4999 early next week! GLA.

If you think about (put another way "I've been thinking about it") the 560 target area I mentioned is actually what the institutions paid for the rump (please feel happy to correct me), so they'd be looking for in excess of that to sell. So that fits with my TA view posted earlier that we might see a pause around that level. I need around 540 for b/e on this, but have accumulated a lot so any rise would be very welcome indeed. My view of the daily chart is that if we finish at this level or above (525/526), we're off to the races and 560 will follow quite quickly. News (TUI-related or not) could derail that, but I'm looking for figures consistent with other businesses when we report on the 10th that should give us a further boost.

Nice Donalb, not seen that before, but probably won't forget it. I'd add, it's better for me if you don't reply to c26. I've ignored him, but still can't get away from him if you're all discussing him so much. Filter him.

It's very rough and so not necessarily very reliable, but the pattern of SP activity since Apr 20th seems to have formed a rough diamond. If the price closed above 518 (let's call it 520-522 as it's so rough), it would suggest we're getting ready for a leg up to 560 (just a TA based target) but on the actual chart I have potential decision points at around 540 (I don't think that will result in a sustained fall back) and 570 (which might pause any movement. As I say pretty rough in pattern terms so it's reliability might be suspect and the fact that there will be selling into any rise (PI's who want to rationalise risk; II's who still need to distribute excess holdings) might slow it all down. For the moment though, the SP action suggests it's setting itself up for the upside in preparation for the figures on the 10th.
GLA, don't let others influence the way you need to do it. Try to be rational and have a little patience.

A closer look at the charts makes me think 655 or lower could be on the cards. But the positive data from the sector makes that seem counter-intuitive. IAG figures were very encouraging today. TUI on the 10th also.

Very encouraging RNS from IAG this morning. Hard to see how this will not read across to TUI's results on the 10th. SP on the other hand will probably see any rise sold into until the market has reached some sort of equilibrium. I'd have said, that against what is a very shaky general background wrt the US (an now European) banking problems and debt issues in much of the leisure sector, TUI is well placed to weather the storm and fingers crossed will come running out of the traps chomping at the bit in the near future.

THe irony being ADHD, that CCL dropped back on that news! And that's even in the presence of much lower POO

Bit surprised it's going to happen so fast, but it looks like a will get my 660/661 despite the good results. It could go lower than that, but I'll watch closely around that area.

That was quite fast tick up though EC, has something specific been published? I was expecting the price to back off 660/661 or lower, so was surprised to see it shoot up. I can't see an RNS or any news, but I suspect there must be something

I dropped out of OCDO yesterday as it was showing some weakness. Took a decent loss, but so far am happy I dropped out.

Perfect FED response in the light of the backdrop. 0.25% hike plus dovish talk of a pause in further hikes. US markets moved to the upside and are now settling about even, possible down side risk. They look confused about where to go

It's a tough one Jeffrey and one you have decide for yourself. I'm not that keen on sound bytes (or if you're romaron or KO just down-right put downs); you might notice guys that the SP is pretty close to the 14p that you found ridiculous) that people use to silent argument or discussion and give the impression that they know more than they do, but they do often hold a form of truth. So the sound byte I'm thinking about is that 'it's always darkest before dawn'. In a way it's unhelpful as you have to work out when dawn is and that's not easy in todays world of free access to masses of conflicting information. But ENQ has survived worse. I have no idea how likely it is that the EPL will change, it sometimes feels to me as if government policy aims to simply move money from individuals to institutions and somewhere down the line to cover state debt. If you think about, if ENQ went down, it's assets would still be there and they could probably be picked up with very little debt (as we bought Bentley for a pound when XEL went belly up). Going out of business is not impossible and the government would not necessarily change it's plans to help us avoid that. I do think though that our management team has been doing a good and focussed job of spinning the plates. The EPL is the monster in the room. The rest would have been easily navigable with a little time. The EPL has compressed our time limits by reducing our profitability. It seems the the Saudis and OPEC don't want POO to fall too far this time round. The last cycle of big falls in POO was driven by deliberate action by the saudis and OPEC. My guess is that the POO will be somewhat protected. Could do with the Chinese economy doing better though and recession being avoided but the media largely suggests that's a big ask.

I see a tl support rising each day, curently at around 15. However, as I've said previously 14p is not looking unlikely here. For the moment, brent still falling, money coming out of the markets in general, O&G not popular with investors and the EPL. ****-storm. We need a reversal in brent price and/or a positive re-think of the EPL or we'll probably hit 14p. To be honest it's likely we will anyway.

We're where we need to be, when we need to be here.

GLA

Brent 80 dollars a barrel? And my **** is a slide trombone it is.
Bring on the next couple of months. Enq holders valhalla is here.

quite right bhants, no-one like a sneezer, particularly not in an enclosed space, where people are penned up like cattle hoping for the plague.

It feels like I've nailed it botbot (until monday morning when it might not feel like I've nailed it).!