Member Info for Stupmy

That's encouraging Jan. HBR have inititiated another sharebuy back (200 million) and this time round (as opposed to the last 200 million) the shares can be held in treasury (some of that comes from Juyama on the HBR board). If treasury shares were intended to be used in an agreement with ENQ, it might be something worth keeping an eye on.

OK, thanks for that juyama, was just looking it all up.

I guess we'd need 120 million shares to cover a 300 million market cap company like ENQ. 240 million of the price per share was 32/33. How many do we have?

Could the sharebuybacks be used in an all share merger with ENQ? Could that actually be one reason behind the buy backs?

The price of a hypothetical merger is the really interesting thing. AB would have an average 18p or so SP, he's had the opportunity of almost 40 to sell and has not taken it. You had the idea of the market cap making enq currently very vulnerable, but AB has to come out of this with something worth his while. He's not going to give it up for 16p and neither would the rest of us. So what's the price? AIMOK you suggest that even double the current market cap (let's say 33/34p) it would be a very good deal for HBR (that would be snapped up by some PI's), but I suspect AB would be looking for 40p (or equivalent in HBR shares) or more to recommend anything, and that would still represent a good deal for HBR. The synergies are very strong. Jeffrey's recently started a discussion along the lines of 'is it time to cut out and take our medicine'. Then there's the 'always darkest before dawn' idea. I wonder if the market (our statesmen?) have been trying to push this down to 14p or lower in order to permit an orderly change in ownership of shares, before something significant pushes up beyond 40p and perhaps into the arms of a suitor. Still just talking out loud and still holding all of my shares. This has been a value trap and a large opportunity cost over the last 12-18mths for me. Nice to be able to think in a more positive way and the sense behind those thoughts seems compelling to me at the moment. I still worry about the possibility of a new labour government (Tony Blair would have worked in our corner mind).

There's no opening gap today Trent

Well price has now hit 530. Time to watch closely for evidence it will turn back to the upside (I think it will). Best bet is that it will turn between 525 and 529, but no-one can see into the future and a wider market turn down would hit TUI with the rest.

There are hints from both HBR and ENQ on m&a activity. If you were to assume (as a company) that the EPL would be modified) then for HBR to be looking ENQ over at such a low valuation would not seem unrealistic to me. Our tax credits could be enough to save HBR enough in EPL tax to pay for whatever the costs of a merger or acquisition would be. Others on this board have speculated that AB might want to sell in the coming years anyway to focus his energy in other areas (that might make a fair bit of sense as the world careers towards it's aims to eliminate use of fossil fuels). Downside to the idea that a deal might be attractive would be a labour government following through on their current ideas. I'm just thinking out loud. Both HBR and ENQ must have a better handle on the likelihood of changes to the EPL than your average man on the street. Both have been neutral in their tones with public statements (in results), HBR who are hit harder have said they'll cut 350 land based jobs and move more out of UK jurisdiction and have been somewhat political in their statements (although they've returned to a neutral tone; with underlying threats). I think both ENQ and HBR are currently negotiating wtih the UK government. Our tax credits have to be of significant interest to HBR. For me comments like 'can't be long until the market wakes up to ENQ's low valuation' make sense, but correct me if I'm wrong, we've been saying this for years even before the EPL and nothing has happened.

It's obvious to say it I guess, but I hope that translates into changes to the EPL to make it more attractive to invest in the UK. HBR have already said 350 onshore jobs to go. Surely that must be a push in the right direction to get the government to be coherent in their policies. Not even sure it'll be enough to save the jobs though as Starmer wants 78% tax and no investment incentivisation.

That's what commonly happens gl. The board is now discussing whether the results are as good as they might have been. The rights issue and the mechanics of the SP have been sidelined. Many PI's will now be feeling negatively about TUI and the SP is sat 40-50p over the RI price. They'll see that as a profit, which for many (as Hexam has clearly explained) is not the truth. This normal market behaviour. We see it on a day to day basis in most markets. This is an orderly market and the SP will most likely rise once a few more PI's have sold. The focus has shifted from the SP to the results. It shouldn't have.

There was a good TA reason for the fall back (a downside gap which has now filled). That was a good RNS, with a backdrop of the EPL, poor sentiment to O&G investments and stable/falling POO. If POO does not continue it's downside path then to me this looks like another opportunity to buy (as soon as the SP turns (my guess would be at or above 239 for that.

You sound like a decent, honest, clueless strangerr Marcinkus, doesn't take long for them to become friends.

I'm quite convinced the SP will drop to 530 or below, so I've dropped my 1 share with a small proportion of my position. I'll buy back if the downside gap closes. It was a good update so a drop back doesn't make obvious sense. It's just that, in my experience, gaps normally fill and I think this will fill quite soon.

I don't think it is Greylady. It's computers recognizing a weakness in the chart and selling into it. Once that is resolved, the SP will come up again. I don't think there's a problem with the update, this will seem laughable and ridiculous in a short period of time. Holders who sold will be kicking themselves, those that felt doubt will think it was mad. But it's just because the computers can easily get this to 530 or below, they almost certainly will. After that, it'll be more difficult to sell it down and you'll see it turn to the upside.

Yes iParsnip and I have even stated it. There is a very good chance we'll see 530 or below, I will not add until that's happened. If it doesnt', I'm happy with what I have.

That 19.7% has resolved.

Clear now why HBR and ENQ rose into close. I don't think it was the Malaysian RNS. I think it was anticipation of HBR's results which look very good. Might see some further momentum today. Fingers crossed at least.

Wow indeed. Can't hurt the SP today! I guess that explains yesterdays SP rise into close

If you've got your maths right marcinkus then you can't just let that go. You really should follow up and chase it down quickly. If you're sure of your maths and you can't get a quick response from the company that is satisfactory you should make a formal complaint. Advise them that's your intention, I'd imagine they'd check into it. It shouldn't be very difficult for them to tell if they've made an error. Also, if they have, it's probable that they've dome something similar with others too. Not sure if you can reach to other members of your platform via their own chat type system? Good luck with it.

Good finish for the SP so fingers crossed it's one of those times where buying into the close leads to a good day the next day.

Brent's rising now, a close above 77.3 or better still 77.5 could favour a move up to 82-83. Interestingly the rise in SP of ENQ and HBR started around 3pm (not specific to ENQ so probably not related to todays RNS) whereas Brent started rising from about 5 pm. Looking at it through rose tinted glasses while high on LSD one could imagine that our SP might rise a little more tomorrow to catch up with the price of brent (if the POB stays up of course). 77.3/77.5 looks like a decision point. A rejection would cause a right old downer from this evening pink acid trip.